以太坊(ETH)缺乏更强机构需求,难以突破3800美元

Cointelegraph中文Published on 2025-07-04Last updated on 2025-08-05

Abstract

目前没有即将到来的驱动因素推动加密货币上涨,尤其是在全球贸易战风险持续存在以及对美国就业市场前景的担忧加剧的情况下。交易者越来越不愿意给予政府怀疑的好处,因为经济增长和通胀数据可能是由于企业和个人在进口关税上调前囤积商品所推动的。 如果没有新的机构资金流入,ETH可能会继续与整体山寨币市场紧密联动

以太坊面临机构需求疲软且缺乏催化剂,使得ETH价格与更广泛的山寨币趋势和经济不确定性紧密相连。


关键要点:

  • 尽管最近价格回暖,以太坊期货和期权数据仍显示中性至看跌情绪。
  • 机构ETF资金流出和缺乏催化剂使ETH未能突破3800美元。

以太坊(ETH)价格从周日的3355美元低点上涨了9%,但衍生品指标显示交易者仍不相信看涨势头会持续。
最近的价格走势与更广泛的山寨币市值密切相关,突显出短期内缺乏明确的驱动因素来支撑价格持续上涨至3800美元以上。

ETH/USD(左,粉色)与总山寨币市值/USD(右,蓝色)。来源:TradingView / Cointelegraph山寨币市值在7月28日达到1.3万亿美元,恰逢以太坊在2025年的最高水平。因此,以太坊在7月底未能重新站上4000美元更可能是由于投资者风险偏好降低,而非以太坊生态系统内的具体问题。


然而,这并不意味着投资者对以太坊的价格前景变得乐观。

以太坊3个月期货年化溢价。来源:laevitas.ch以太坊三个月期货溢价目前处于5%的中性至看跌门槛。这尤其令人担忧,因为即使是前一周达到的3900美元ETH价格水平也未能使该指标转为看涨。


以太坊的TVL下降影响投资者情绪


部分投资者的失望情绪与去中心化应用(DApp)存款下降相关。以太坊网络总锁仓价值(TVL)过去30天内下降9%,至2380万个ETH。


相比之下,根据DefiLlama的数据,BNB链的TVL在同期上升了8%,至694亿BNB,而Solana DApps的存款增加了4%,至6920万SOL。以美元计,以太坊的基础层继续以59%的份额主导总TVL。

Deribit上的ETH 30天期权偏斜(看跌-看涨)。来源:laevitas.ch以太坊投资者的乐观情绪减弱也反映在ETH期权市场上,因为25% delta偏斜(看跌-看涨)指标在周六达到6%,正好处于中性至看跌门槛。


当对保护性看跌(卖出)期权的需求下降时,偏斜增加。目前3%的读数表明风险评估平衡,表明看涨情绪尚未回归。


ETH缺乏机构需求以突破3800美元

Coinbase & Kraken ETH/USD溢价与Binance & Bitfinex。来源:Tradingview / Cointelegraph目前,Coinbase和Kraken上的ETH价格相较于Binance和Bitfinex略有折扣,这可能表明机构交易台的需求较弱。这与7月10日至7月23日期间形成鲜明对比,当时价格溢价可能反映了公司筹集资金以积累ETH。


ETH的机构需求显著下降,尤其是以太坊现货交易所交易基金(ETF)在周三至周五录得1.29亿美元的净流出。目前,没有明显的催化剂能够将以太坊与更广泛的加密货币市场脱钩,并推动其价格超过3800美元。


目前没有即将到来的驱动因素推动加密货币上涨,尤其是在全球贸易战风险持续存在以及对美国就业市场前景的担忧加剧的情况下。交易者越来越不愿意给予政府怀疑的好处,因为经济增长和通胀数据可能是由于企业和个人在进口关税上调前囤积商品所推动的。
如果没有新的机构资金流入,ETH可能会继续与整体山寨币市场紧密联动

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