Key Takeaways
BTC is struggling with weak ETF inflows and macro headwinds. Eric Trump’s “dip” call echoes halving-year rallies but lacks strong confirmation, making it a risky bet.
Eric Trump just told followers to “buy the dip,” but should anyone really be paying attention?
Timing-wise, it’s interesting. His call lands right as Bitcoin [BTC] nukes below the $117k-$120k chop zone, printing a clean 3.76% drawdown over the last three daily candles.
But zoom out to the monthly chart, and August’s hit rate isn’t great.
A losing month with rare outliers
BTC’s been red in 60% of the last 12 Augusts. It’s typically a post-runoff month, often fading July’s strength as bid depth thins out across majors.
Source: CoinGlass
That said, one key divergence stands out on closer inspection.
In 2013, 2017, and 2021, BTC ripped double-digit gains in August. The common thread? All were post-halving years.
Source: Glassnode
These are cycles where Issuance fell 50%, and supply-side overhangs thin out.
Structurally, that means less BTC hitting the tape at a time when risk appetite often rotates back in. In that context, is Eric Trump’s call more than just speculation?
Could BTC’s August mirror previous halving years?
Historically, Eric Trump’s crypto calls have been hit or miss.
Case in point: The 25th of February. His tweet landed as BTC was base-building around $90k, and the price squeezed 6.6% higher over the next four sessions.
But the move lacked follow-through. Momentum faded fast, and BTC reversed hard, dumping $77k in a single week as cascading liquidations flushed millions in leveraged longs.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
On top of that, BTC ETFs printed their worst quarterly outflows yet, roughly $800 million out the door. That’s the biggest bleed since February’s unwind, when outflows crossed $1 billion.
Macro’s not helping either. Unlike previous cycles, this one’s clouded by tariff overhang, sticky labor prints, and zero clarity on a Fed pivot, dragging on overall risk appetite.
Consequently, $120k is shaping up as a local top. With weak inflows and macro pressure building, the usual post-halving August squeeze looks unlikely, making Eric Trump’s “buy the dip” call a risky bet.
