MicroStrategy, the enterprise software firm led by Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor and now rebranded as Strategy (MSTR), is on the verge of a major milestone. According to financial analyst Jeff Walton, the company has a 91% chance of joining the prestigious S&P 500 Index by the end of Q2, a move that could mark a historic moment for both the firm and the broader crypto-aligned corporate landscape.
Walton notes that the strategy’s success depends on Bitcoin holding above $95,240 through June 30. With BTC at $106,044 during his analysis, the setup remains intact, but any slip below the threshold could invalidate the plan.
In a video released Tuesday, Walton explained that if Bitcoin falls more than 10% before the quarter ends, Strategy’s Q2 earnings won’t be enough to offset the cumulative losses from the previous three quarters.
To qualify for inclusion in the S&P 500, a company must show positive cumulative earnings over the past four quarters. Although Strategy posted net losses in the last three, a strong second-quarter showing, fueled largely by gains from its Bitcoin holdings, could tip the balance in its favor.
Since January 1, Strategy has adopted the ASU 2023-08 accounting rule, which mandates marking Bitcoin holdings to fair market value. As a result, quarterly earnings now rise or fall in line with Bitcoin’s price, making the company’s S&P 500 eligibility increasingly tied to short-term crypto market performance.
With 592,345 BTC on its balance sheet, Strategy currently holds more Bitcoin than any other publicly traded company.
Walton’s 91% probability is rooted in Bitcoin’s historical behavior. Since September 17, 2014, there have been 343 6-day stretches where BTC fell more than 10%, compared to 3,585 periods where it didn’t.
That equates to just an 8.7% chance of a steep drop, leaving Strategy with a strong 91.3% probability that Bitcoin stays stable as Q2 draws to a close.
The probability increases with each passing day:
- 5 days remaining: 92.4%
- 4 days: 93.4%
- 3 days: 94.5%
- 2 days: 95.8%
- 1 day: 97.6%
Despite the optimistic forecast, risks remain. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel briefly pushed Bitcoin below $100,000 over the weekend, the first dip below that level since early May. At the time of publication, however, Bitcoin had recovered to $106,200, keeping the Strategy on track.
If Strategy is added to the S&P 500, it would be the second crypto-related firm to do so in 2025, following Coinbase’s inclusion in May.
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