黄金 VS 比特币-- 一场“零和博弈”已形成

华尔街日报Published on 2025-05-16Last updated on 2025-05-17

今年上半年,市场见证了一场引人注目的资产重新配置过程:原本在2024年第四季度同步上涨的黄金与比特币,如今已演变为一场"零和博弈"。

据追风交易台消息,摩根大通本周在研报中写道,自4月22日黄金价格达到3500美元的峰值后,已下跌近8%,而同期比特币价格上涨了18%。这种此消彼长的格局预计将持续至年底,但多项加密货币特有的积极催化因素可能使比特币在下半年表现优于黄金。

资金流向印证黄金与比特币的"翘翘板"效应

摩根大通表示,最近三周的资产流向数据清晰地展示了这种此消彼长关系。

散户和私人投资者的行为显示,实物黄金和现货ETF出现资金外流,而比特币/加密货币ETF则经历资金流入。期货市场也呈现类似趋势:黄金期货持续下滑,比特币期货却大幅增长。这与今年2月中旬至4月中旬期间的关税事件相反,当时黄金强势上涨,而比特币与风险资产同步下跌。

对此摩根大通分析称,2024年第四季度美国大选前后,黄金和比特币曾同步上涨,表现出共同的"货币贬值交易"特征。然而,进入2025年后,这种协同效应已停滞,转变为两者之间的零和博弈。

2月中旬至4月中旬,黄金上涨是以比特币下跌为代价;而过去三周则出现相反的趋势——比特币上涨伴随着黄金下跌。

“特有的”多重催化剂支撑比特币上涨势头

摩根大通认为,比特币在今年下半年的表现将优于黄金,对此他们提出除了从黄金下跌中获益外,比特币还受益于多项加密货币特有的积极因素:

1、企业增持趋势

MicroStrategy、Metaplanet等公司积极增持比特币。MicroStrategy宣布计划到2027年再筹集420亿美元(总计840亿美元)用于购买比特币,其初始420亿美元的"21/21"计划已完成60%。

2、美国州政府投资入场

新罕布什尔州成为美国首个通过法案允许州财政投资加密货币市场的州,授权将高达5%的州资产投资于比特币和黄金。亚利桑那州也采取预算中性方法为比特币和其他数字资产建立储备基金。随着更多美国州可能考虑将比特币添加到战略储备中,这可能成为比特币的持续利好因素。

3、衍生品市场成熟化

美国加密货币交易所收购加密衍生品平台,如Coinbase收购占全球加密期权交易85%的Deribit,Kraken收购美国期货平台Ninja Trader,Gemini获得MiFID II许可证以在欧元经济区提供衍生品。这表明加密衍生品市场正在成熟,并通过纳入美国或欧盟监管,可能增强传统机构投资者的信心和参与度。

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517 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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