富达研究:比特币价格准备进入下一轮「加速阶段」

Foresight NewsPublished on 2025-04-01Last updated on 2025-04-01

Abstract

比特币仍处于加速阶段,但正在接近周期的结束。

撰文:Big Smokey,CoinTelegraph

编译:陶朱,金色财经

富达数字资产公司 (Fidelity Digital Assets) 最近发布的一份报告质疑,比特币的价格是否已经经历了周期性的「爆发式上涨」,或者 BTC 是否正处于另一个「加速阶段」的边缘。

富达分析师扎克·温赖特 (Zack Wainwright) 表示,比特币的加速阶段的特点是「高波动性和高利润」,类似于 2020 年 12 月 BTC 突破 20,000 美元时的价格走势。

虽然比特币今年迄今的回报率反映了 11.4% 的损失,并且该资产较历史高点下跌了近 25%,但温赖特表示,与之前的市场周期相比,近期加速阶段后的表现与 BTC 的平均下跌趋势一致。

温赖特认为,比特币仍处于加速阶段,但正在接近周期的结束,因为 3 月 3 日代表了该周期的第 232 天。之前的峰值持续时间稍长,之后进入修正期。

「2010 - 2011 年、2015 年和 2017 年的加速阶段分别在第 244 天、第 261 天和第 280 天达到顶峰,这表明每个周期的阶段都略显漫长。」

比特币会再次出现抛物线反弹吗?

自 2 月 21 日以来,比特币的价格一直徘徊在 100,000 美元以下,构成「特朗普交易」的大部分势头和积极情绪已经消散,取而代之的是关税战引发的波动以及市场对美国可能陷入衰退的担忧。

尽管存在这些悬而未决的因素,并且它们对比特币的日常价格产生了负面影响,但大型实体仍在继续增加其 BTC 库存。

3 月 31 日,Strategy 首席执行官 Michael Saylor 宣布,该公司已以平均每比特币 86,969 美元的价格收购了 22,048 BTC(19.2 亿美元)。同一天,比特币矿工 MARA 透露计划出售高达 20 亿美元的股票,以「不时」收购更多 BTC。

紧随大盘股公司的脚步,日本公司 Metaplanet 于 3 月 31 日发行了 20 亿日元(1330 万美元)的债券,以购买更多比特币,而 3 月份最大的新闻来自 GameStop 宣布发行 13 亿美元的可转换票据,其中一部分可用于购买比特币。

最近,多家国际和美国上市公司的购买和购买意向声明表明,它们在积累 BTC 作为储备资产时采取了与价格无关的方法,并突显了机构投资者对未来价格的积极预期。

虽然很难确定机构投资者购买比特币对 BTC 价格的影响,但 Wainwright 表示,需要关注的一个指标是连续 60 天期间加密货币创下历史新高的天数。Wainwright 发布了以下图表并表示:

「比特币在之前的加速阶段通常会经历两次重大上涨,第一次是在选举之后。如果比特币即将创下历史新高,那么它的起始价格将接近 110,000 美元。」

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