政治宣言or收费广告?解析加密货币战略储备的真实可能性

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-03-04Last updated on 2025-03-04

Abstract

特朗普作为美国总统,显然比99.9%的市场机构更有权力。

原文标题:Reserve Your Ass

原文作者:Foxi_xyz,加密研究员

原文编译:ChatGPT

编者按:特朗普宣布美国战略储备可能添加 SOL、XRP 和 ADA 等加密货币,引发了对「美国本土」含义、建立加密货币储备的可能性及其法律和政治挑战的讨论。尽管通过行政命令或没收加密货币可能绕过国会拨款,但全面建立储备仍需国会授权,且存在法律和伦理问题。市场认为持有 BTC 储备是可能的,但作者认为只应保留 BTC 储备,其他加密货币的加入会削弱储备的严肃性。在作者看来,特朗普的举动更多是为了广告效应,而非实质性政策变革。

以下为原文内容(为便于阅读理解,原内容有所整编):

特朗普宣布美国战略储备可能添加 SOL、XRP 和 ADA。

政治宣言or收费广告?解析加密货币战略储备的真实可能性

除了 SOL,我认为大多数投机者(包括我自己)都处于观望状态。这可能是自 BTC ETF 以来最重要的事件,背后有许多含义:

  • 「美国本土」到底意味着什么?

  • 建立美国加密货币战略储备的可能性有多大?

  • 财政部可以通过哪些方式影响加密货币储备的形成?

我不是政治学专业,但我看到了很多有趣的讨论。我将整理这些讨论,并加入我的个人观点。既然特朗普已经介入,我们必须承认规则已经改变,我们该如何前进?

(是的,我知道他还提到了 BTC 和 ETH,但这显然是为了让广告不那么难看)

「美国本土」到底意味着什么?

感谢 @SonicAssistant 的研究,大多数美国本土的加密货币公司都在海外设有「基金会」,并且没有在美国合法发行的途径:

  • ADA、SOL、ETH - 瑞士

  • XRP - 爱沙尼亚

  • HBAR、MATIC、SUI、APTOS、OP、ARB - 开曼群岛

正如 Movement 创始人 @rushimanche 所说,「政治是当今加密货币公司最重要的市场进入策略。」他预测,未来五年只有那些与联邦机构、机构资本和世界领导人建立牢固关系的团队才能生存。这一愿景强化了真正的美国本土影响力取决于公司如何有效参与政治和机构权力——美国 CABAL。

政治宣言or收费广告?解析加密货币战略储备的真实可能性

Mint Venture 合伙人 @xuxiaopengmint 也分享了他对这一储备公告的看法:

「自特朗普就职以来,SOL、XRP 和 ADA 频繁访问 Mar-a-Lago(佛罗里达州),并为特朗普提供了大量支持,比如捐赠给他的就职基金。幕后,各种间接利益转移可能更为广泛。作为回报,特朗普现在以总统权力为这些代币提供了一个显著的『广告位』。」

建立加密货币战略储备的可能性有多大?

TL;DR:可能性很低。

行政命令权限?

总统可以发布行政命令来启动或指导加密货币储备,但命令本身并不是魔法棒。它必须在现有法律范围内运作,或提出紧急理由。如果没有明确的法律授权持有私人加密货币资产,该命令可能被视为非法或无效,除非得到国会支持。特朗普可以命令进行研究或试点项目,或指示财政部探索使用汇率稳定基金(ESF)进行加密货币操作,但永久性、大规模的 BTC、XRP、SOL、ADA 等储备可能需要国会首先授权。

绕过国会?

美国宪法将联邦支出和资产购买的控制权主要赋予国会(「财政权」)。因此,绕过国会建立加密货币储存在法律上是棘手的。总统不能拨款购买资产——只有国会可以授权联邦支出。实际上,这意味着任何直接购买加密货币作为储备的行为都需要国会批准的拨款(或以国会允许的方式重新分配现有资金)

然而,联邦政府偶尔会从刑事案件中没收加密货币(例如丝绸之路比特币、暗网毒品市场)。通常这些会被拍卖换取现金,但特朗普的团队有直接将这些加密货币纳入国家储备的想法。

政治宣言or收费广告?解析加密货币战略储备的真实可能性

2024 年数据,未更新

以这种方式使用没收的加密货币可以绕过国会拨款的需要,因为这些资产已经是政府财产。这本质上是资产转移而不是新支出。重要的是,这种方法被明确考虑过:「特朗普的加密货币团队计划考虑利用执法行动中没收的加密货币来创建储备。」(来自路透社)

然而,根据现有的没收法律,没收财产的收益通常必须用于特定基金(如司法部的资产没收基金)或受害者——将其重新用于战略储备可能需要修改这些规则或提出国家安全理由。因此,在将 XRP 或 SOL 纳入储备之前,已经有一些法律工作要做。

政治宣言or收费广告?解析加密货币战略储备的真实可能性

市场认为持有 BTC 在储备中是可能的(ps 不是购买)

接受代币捐赠 vs 为储备购买

避免使用纳税人资金和需要国会拨款的一种方法是接受加密货币捐赠进入储备。这一想法表明,加密货币公司或富有的持有者可能会捐赠代币(例如免费给美国政府大量 XRP 或 ADA)以启动战略储备。虽然这看起来很方便,但这种方法存在重大的法律和伦理问题。

现行法规(例如财政部接受礼物的规定)通常要求任何礼物(例如给财政部的 XRP)必须被清算并用于减少国家债务。为了让 XRP 和 ADA 成功纳入储备,我们需要新的立法或重新解释,任何捐赠的资产通常不会被出售,而是作为储备持有。这将产生锁定效应,并为美国本土的加密货币项目提供巨大的广告效应。

加密货币储备可能的形式

基于之前的信息,最可能的情景:

  • 保留现有的政府持有的比特币而不是清算它

  • 允许加密货币公司使用加密货币(例如比特币)缴纳税款

  • 接受加密货币公司的代币捐赠

我个人只希望第一种情况「保留现有的政府持有的比特币而不是清算它」发生。推进 ADA 和 XRP,甚至 ETH 作为储备资产是荒谬的。这样的举动将削弱专门的比特币储备的严肃性,并进一步减少联邦级别的 BTC 储备法律出台的可能性。

政治宣言or收费广告?解析加密货币战略储备的真实可能性

从 @worldlibertyfi 的行动中,我们慢慢理解整个游戏只是一则广告。如果你给特朗普的加密货币团队提供了足够的利益,他们会为你做广告。这是一项非常有利可图的生意,因为特朗普是美国总统,比 99.9% 的现有市场机构更有权力。

结论

从法律上讲,虽然总统可以通过命令或工作组指导行政机构,但现行法规(特别是那些管理美联储和财政部的法规)将限制单方面创建此类储备。此外,特朗普可能倾向于非现金融资——通过锁定政府持有的加密货币、鼓励加密货币缴税或接受捐赠——这带来了额外的法律和伦理挑战,因为现行法律通常要求任何捐赠的加密货币必须被清算用于减少债务。

从政治上看,将 SOL、XRP 和 ADA 等替代币纳入储备似乎是为了为受青睐的项目提供公共「广告位」。然而,这样的举动可能会稀释任何专门的比特币储备的严肃性,并在国会面临重大障碍,因为共和党的脆弱多数使得全面的立法变革不太可能。

我认为我们只需要 BTC 储备,而不是 ETH、XRP、ADA 或 SOL,只是 BTC。

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