预售收益高达5倍,PAIN能拯救meme市场吗?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-02-20Last updated on 2025-02-20

Abstract

盈利刚好弥补SOL的U本位损失,又白干了!

「NO PAINS, NO GAINS」,老头币终于上线了!

2 月 11 日,Meme 项目 PAIN 官方在社交媒体上发文表示,「 80% 的退款将在 PAIN 代币开启交易前发放到符合条件的钱包中,PAIN 也将空投到符合条件的钱包中,该项目将在 X 和网上公布官方合约和代币经济模型,不会有任何申领链接。」今日凌晨,PAIN 所筹集的 185, 976 枚 SOL 中的 80% 已经顺利退款,在区块 318346069 (即 PAINSALE 结束)之后发送的所有资金也已退还。

按照社区成员的说法,PAIN 开盘之前退款 80% ,目前还有接近 4 倍的收益,「也是就说如果你投入 100 SOL,会退回你 80 SOL,目前空投的币还能卖接近 80 个 SOL。」但如果你没有熬夜枯坐,想必应该无法获得这样的倍数收益,因为目前 PAIN 市值已经较高点 23 亿美元跌至 1.8 亿美元。不过炒作仍在继续,截止发稿前,PAIN 市值已回升至 2.5 亿美元。

预售收益高达5倍,PAIN能拯救meme市场吗?

看到这种 K 线图其实有点 PTSD,这和阿根廷总统币 LIBRA 的走势有何区别?

但这两者或许真的有些不同,造成 PAIN 高开的原因主要是有太多狙击手在开盘时抢跑,在团队注入足够的流动性之前迅速买入,其交易速度极快,以至于大部分做市商的流动性尚未完全上链,导致市场短暂出现供需失衡。

在此情况下,一些抢跑机器人虽然成功挂出买单,但市场上并无足够的卖单匹配。其中一名抢跑者甚至以 22 亿美元的价格挂单出售代币,并被其他机器人买入,导致市场价格短暂出现极端波动。而此时,PAIN 预售投资者尚未收到空投,市场尚未形成有效的流动性供给。

在这个过程中,也有人因此吃亏,据 Lookonchain 监测,该狙击手支付了 2, 501 枚 SOL(43 万美元)的费用,并花费了 15, 000 枚 SOL(258 万美元)狙击获得 107, 212 枚 PAIN。然后他卖掉了全部 107, 212 枚 PAIN 换来了 14, 961 枚 SOL(257 万美元),亏损 2, 540 枚 SOL(43.6 万美元)。

随着做市商逐步完成买卖单的部署,并且所有预售参与者陆续收到空投,市场价格逐渐恢复正常水平。然而,一些抢跑机器人因流动性问题遭受损失,市场价格也随之调整。

代币经济学解读

据官方消息,PAIN 的原型人物 Harold 本人代币份额将锁定 20 年,直至 2045 年解锁。

其代币经济模型显示,PAIN 总供应量为 1000 万枚,其中 50% 分配给 Harold 本人、 20% 用于预售、 15% 用于流动性、 10% 分配给社区、 5% 分配给合作伙伴。

预售收益高达5倍,PAIN能拯救meme市场吗?

除了 Harold 本人持仓的 50% PAIN 已锁仓外,社区/合作伙伴部分总计 15% 的代币暂未转移或卖出。

PAIN 的主流动性池分布为:目前共注入价值 1137 万美元的流动性(占 1% 手续费下主流动性池的 82% ),其中有 12.9 万枚 PAIN 和 52490 SOL,未领取的手续费收入高达 34.4 万美元。当前只有 [ 0.104251 - 0.205086 ] 价格区间仍在生效中,换算为美元为 [ 17.88 美元- 35.2 美元],其余 Position 均已暂时失效。

但众所周知,meme 币并不等于公平,据 @ai_ 9684 xtpa 监测,地址 DjTrV...1 a 24 a 以均价 $ 23.66 抛售了 107, 212 枚 PAIN,追溯其资金来源为团队预售关联地址,而非发放空投的 20% 持币地址,代币转移三次后进行出货,在过去 7 小时内已抛售价值 253 万美元代币。

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