Cardano现货ETF决议临近,ADA空头占优,短期或陷入震荡

mediumPublished on 2025-02-19Last updated on 2025-02-19

Abstract

Cardano 巨鲸频繁转移代币,引发市场猜测——这是决议前的提前布局,还是单纯的筹码分发?

Cardano [ADA] 现货 ETF 决议即将到来,最终决定截止日期为 3 月 27 日。

近期,Cardano 巨鲸频繁转移代币,引发市场猜测——这是决议前的提前布局,还是单纯的筹码分发?

从价格走势来看,ADA 近期跌势迅猛,未来几周可能会进一步下探至 $0.6。

成交量分布显示 $0.9 和 $0.74 可能是关键位置

目前,ADA 的整体趋势偏空。从 2023 年 11 月的上涨行情来看,ADA 突破了 2024 年初的前高,但随后价格开始走低,形成了一系列“低高点”和“低低点”。

最近的低点出现在 $0.845,而 1 月份的近期高点为 $1.13。随后 ADA 价格大幅回落,进一步确立了空头结构。

从固定区间成交量分布(Fixed Range Volume Profile)来看,自去年 2 月以来,ADA 在 $0.74、$0.59 和 $0.45 这三个关键成交量密集区形成了高成交量节点(HVN)。此外,价值区域高点(Value Area High)在 $0.876,近几个月 ADA 多次在这一水平附近获得支撑。

近期,ADA 在 $0.68 附近迅速反弹,短线出现一定的看涨迹象,并成功突破 $0.74 高成交量节点。

然而,从技术指标来看,市场仍以空头占优。

- 超速震荡指标(Awesome Oscillator)显示,虽然过去一周的反弹使空头动能有所减弱,但整体趋势依旧偏空。

- 结合整体下行趋势结构来看,短期反弹可能会延续至 $0.87-$0.90 区间,随后或将继续下行。

如果 Cardano 想要扭转当前的下行趋势,多头需要阻止“低低点”结构的延续,并形成价格区间震荡(盘整),但目前来看,这种情况尚未出现。

因此,未来几个月 ADA 价格大概率仍将延续下行趋势。短期内,可能会在 $0.68-$0.81 区间形成盘整,但这一过程可能需要 1-2 周 才能确认。

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