资本市场冰火两重天：金价屡破新高，比特币却「失速」？

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-02-17Last updated on 2025-02-17

Abstract

比特币究竟是独立于传统体系的「风险 - 避险混合体」，还是已逐渐被纳入主流资产的定价框架？

原文作者：ChandlerZ，Foresight News

2025 年伊始，全球资本市场陷入冰火两重天。近期，现货黄金价格屡破新高。截至 2 月 16 日，COMEX 黄金期货价格一度冲高至 2968 美元 / 盎司，年內最大涨幅接近 10% ，距 3000 美元大关仅一步之遥。

而比特币在突破 10 万美元高点后，持续在 9-11 万美元区间震荡，年内疲态与新晋避险资产的身份相悖而行。这一波动既暴露了目前两类资产的定价逻辑差异，更指向全球资本在「特朗普 2.0 时代」下对风险尺度的重新标定。

比特币 VS 黄金：从避险叙事到功能分化

比特币与美股、黄金的联动性演化，实质是其金融化进程中身份认知的漂移过程。以比特币与传统资产之间的相关系数衡量，其相关性呈现出显著的动态变化特征。

资本市场冰火两重天：金价屡破新高，比特币却「失速」？

黄金作为传统避险资产，与比特币的关系相对复杂。从长期数据来看，比特币与黄金的相关性表现出明显的不稳定性，频繁在正负区间波动，早期二者的相关系数多呈负相关，彼时比特币被视为黄金的「数字替代品」。但 2022 年后的市场动荡中，二者多次出现同步行情。2024 年后期相关性趋于正值，但波动仍然明显。

这种矛盾性源于两者属性的差异：黄金的避险功能依托于其物理属性与历史共识，而比特币数字黄金叙事更多依赖市场情绪与技术预期。2021 年比特币创历史新高时，黄金价格处于阶段性低谷。2024 年开始，二者各自因为央行购金潮与比特币 ETF 获批等因素同步上涨。可见，二者的关联性受阶段性事件驱动，而非内在价值逻辑的必然联系。

资本市场冰火两重天：金价屡破新高，比特币却「失速」？

美股联动，流动性虹吸下的双螺旋结构

在美股方面，比特币常被归类为「风险资产」，其价格走势与科技股为主的纳斯达克指数呈现显著的正相关性。这种关联性在 2021 年达到高峰，二者同步创下历史高点后回调， 2022 年底又同步触底反弹，显示出风险偏好驱动的市场行为一致性。

比特币与标普 500 指数的相关性呈现出较为温和的正相关特征，相关系数多数时候维持在 0 到 0.5 之间，比特币涨幅显著大于 S&P 500 ，价格协同性在高点区域较为清晰。这种关系在 2024 年后期表现得尤为明显，当时随着美联储转向鸽派立场的预期升温，风险资产普遍获得提振。

在美联储释放降息信号期间，这种协同性甚至超过传统科技股与债券的负相关强度。两者的关联强度已超过传统科技股间的组团效应，暗示加密货币正系统性嵌入成长股估值体系。但值得注意的是，这种正相关性呈现显著的非对称性：在市场下行周期，比特币与美股的跌幅相关系数并不高，揭示其高波动性背景下的超额风险溢价特征。

资本市场冰火两重天：金价屡破新高，比特币却「失速」？

这一现象可从市场心理与流动性角度解释，当全球经济预期向好时，投资者风险偏好提升，资金同时涌入美股与比特币；而市场避险情绪升温时，两者均可能承压。QUICK FactSet 的数据显示，全世界以美元计价的股票总市值比 2023 年末增加了 13.6 万亿美元，达到 121.8 万亿美元，比特币同期涨幅超 150% ，印证了流动性宽松与风险偏好对二者的共同推动。不过，美股的高估值也隐含回调风险，若股市修正，比特币或面临同步压力，而黄金可能因避险需求受益。

金融属性的重塑

比特币与美股、黄金的联动性变化，折射出加密市场参与主体的结构性转变。早期比特币主要由散户和极客社群持有，其价格独立于传统金融体系。但 2020 年后，机构投资者的介入加速了其金融化进程，使之更易受美股情绪传染。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）比特币期货未平仓合约量的增长进一步强化了这一路径。此外，美国 SEC 对比特币现货 ETF 的审批准入、各国监管政策差异等制度性变量，亦对比特币的资产属性定位产生长期影响。

比特币在突破 10 万美元历史新高后出现的高位震荡，源于多重市场力量的交互作用。一方面，早期入场的投资者在高位逐步兑现获利，而 ETF 等机构渠道带来的新增资金则形成有力承接，这种买卖双方力量的此消彼长导致价格在区间内剧烈波动。

另一方面，当前市场仍处于宽松预期酝酿期，大规模放水尚未实质展开，市场主要由存量资金在不同价位间轮动，缺乏持续性的增量资金入场也限制了突破新高后的上行动能。同时，期货、永续合约等杠杆工具的使用更为活跃，高杠杆放大了价格波动幅度，频繁的强制平仓更进一步加剧了市场波动。

但总的来说，技术创新的反身性也在孕育新的可能。当前比特币正在被纳入主权财富基金的资产负债管理框架，适当的加密资产配置，能在保持夏普率稳定的前提下提升尾部风险防御能力。这种功能进化预示着，加密资产与传统资产的关联性将呈现更复杂的层级结构，在宏观稳定期作为风险资产波动，在系统性危机时刻释放非线性关联，最终发展出独立的资产类别定位。

在诺亚方舟的神话里，洁净生物成双而入，不洁生物独行其道。比特币与传统资产的相关性困局，恰似数字文明洪水中找不到同伴的「金融怪物」。或许这种相关性缺失才是它的本来面目，既不需要对标千年硬通货，也无须附会科技泡沫，而是作为区块链原生的异类资产重新定义价值坐标。

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