SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-11-25Last updated on 2024-11-25

Abstract

随著BTC逼近10万美元大关,过去一周每个宏观观察者似乎都变成了MSTR可转债的专家,加密货币再度成为新闻焦点,自FTX事件后最大程度地吸引了主流的注意力。正如我们过去所提及的,“轻松阶段”已经结束,随著迟来的投资者带著大量杠杆进入市场,未来的市场波动将显著加剧...

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

随著 BTC 逼近 10 万美元大关,过去一周每个宏观观察者似乎都变成了 MSTR 可转债的专家,加密货币再度成为新闻焦点,自 FTX 事件后最大程度地吸引了主流的注意力。

正如我们过去所提及的,“轻松阶段”已经结束,随著迟来的投资者带著大量杠杆进入市场,未来的市场波动将显著加剧。

Microstrategy 在其原本 26 亿美元的可转债(0% 票息, 55% 溢价)基础上,成功行使了 4 亿美元的超额配售权,将最终规模提升至 30 亿美元。根据 Cointelegraph 报导,Allianz 保险是此次交易的主要参与者之一,这批 2029 年到期的可转债在首个交易日的收盘价突破 $ 104 。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

华尔街参与其中的讽刺意味显而易见。多年来指责加密货币存在高风险且缺乏基本价值,如今这些银行却在争相主导这笔交易。实际上,当 BTC 在 6 千到 6 万美元时,这些银行都声称 BTC 毫无价值,而现在,这些承销商却暗示投资者,在 95 k 的价格基础上支付 55% 的溢价,且是通过一个间接的股票工具来购买 BTC “相当合理”。我们不会深入讨论 MSTR 如何成为 TradFi 投资者的可转债融资凸性工具,但我们必须承认,这些主流“守门人”(包括监管机构)正在通过这种令人难以置信的结构,将主流投资者带进这一市场,不过,这一切似乎都显得合理而合法,因为是通过“受监管的证券”进行的,真是典型的传统金融套路,不是吗?

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

主流机构自然不会放过这样的机会,迅速推出了 Microstrategy 的杠杆 ETF(MSTX, MSTU),让散户投资者有更多的“次优”方式杠杆交易 BTC 现货。根据 Bloomberg 报导,这些杠杆 ETF 需求之高已对负责证券借贷的主经纪商构成压力,相关资产管理规模在过去一周激增至近 50 亿美元。

(友情提示:除了短期交易外,切勿购买杠杆 ETF,杠杆 ETF 在数学上被设计为随时间逐渐损失价值,请 Google 其每日回报计算方式以获取更多细节。)

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

主经纪商 - 银行中与客户合作开展证券借贷等业务的单位 - 已达到其对 T-Rex 2 X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(代码 MSTU)这支约成立一个月的基金所愿意提供掉期敞口的上限。根据某些指标,该基金在推出时是华尔街有史以来波动最大的 ETF。-- Bloomberg

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

主流狂热进一步助长了近期的市场泡沫,知名电视评论员突然改口支持加密货币,使得市场在当前水平下出现了显著的杠杆增加,并导致实际波动率大幅上升。据报导,由于价格未能再度突破,过去几天内有近 5, 000 亿美元的多头头寸遭到清算,可能是历史上最大规模的一波清算。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

正如我们一直以来所提醒的,加密货币市场短期内将会非常波动。BTC 技术指标显示出严重的超买状态,而大众正对这一资产类别产生 FOMO 情绪。如果 BTC 价格能够成功突破 10 万美元的心理关口,价格可能有机会进一步推升至 12 至 13 万美元区间,但我们对价格平稳上涨的前景并不乐观,因为资产市场整体处于超买状态。卖出看跌期权作为收入或目标买入策略可能在短期内仍具有吸引力(DYOR:非投资建议)。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

说到期权,继 Nasdaq 推出 IBIT ETF 期权之后,CBOE 将推出业界第一个现金结算期权,我们仍预计期权市场将在  2025 年后成为行业的重要增长催化剂,SignalPlus 将为您的期权之旅提供全面支持!

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

Lutnick(Trump 的新商务部长)和其公司 Cantor 最近在加密货币领域的举措对生态系统的长期结构性发展应该有正面影响,根据最近披露的信息,该公司除了是 Tether 的托管人,同时还投资了 6 亿美元取得 Tether 5% 的股权(公司估值为 120 亿美元),该公司还将推出(链下)Bitcoin 融资业务,向客户提供以 BTC 作为抵押品的法币贷款,进一步强化 Bitcoin 作为主流生态系统中资产负债表资产的角色。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

回到 TradFi,上周三 Nvidia 财报超出预期,高收入消费者指数创下新高,反映出美国(高收入)群体消费力的强劲,股市从早先的回撤中强劲反弹。经济意外指数回升至强劲的一季度水平,而通胀数据尚未向上突破,使美联储降息的可能性得以保留(12 月可能性 = 56% ),软著陆情景仍然稳固。此外,美国银行报告称,今年已有超过 4, 480 亿美元的资金流入美国股市,突破了 2021 年的纪录,达到了前所未有的水平。

美国市场周四将迎来感恩节假期,本周的交易活动可能会非常清淡。希望这也能让我们有时间喘口气,迎接今年最后一个月的到来。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:The Fox Guarding the Hen House

您可在 t.signalplus.com 使用 SignalPlus 交易风向标功能,获取更多实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlusCN,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

688 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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