比特币涨至历史高点,散户FOMO了吗?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-11-18Last updated on 2024-11-18

Abstract

这篇文章深入探讨了现有稳定币模型的问题,并试图预测我们如何结束货币内战。

原文作者:Matt Crosby

原文编译:Luffy,ForesightNews

随着比特币再次进入价格发现模式,加密市场参与者都很好奇:散户 FOMO 是否已经开始?我们在过去牛市周期中看到的散户涌入是否还会发生?我们将使用活跃地址、历史周期和各种市场指标数据,研究比特币市场目前的状况以及可能预示的近期前景。

散户兴趣上升

散户兴趣最直接的迹象之一是新创建的比特币地址数量。从历史上看,随着新散户投资者涌入市场,新地址的急剧增加往往标志着牛市的开始。然而,近几个月来,新地址的增长并没有人们预期的那么快。去年,我们看到一天内比特币新增了大约 791, 000 个新地址,这表明散户兴趣浓厚。相比之下,尽管当前新地址数量略有上升,但我们仍旧徘徊在较低的水平。

比特币涨至历史高点,散户FOMO了吗?

图 1 :比特币网络上的新地址数量开始上升

Google Trends 也反映了这种兴趣。尽管过去一个月「Bitcoin」的搜索量一直在增加,但仍远低于 2021 年和 2017 年的峰值。散户投资者似乎表现出了新的好奇心,但还没有达到 FOMO 那种狂热兴奋的程度。

比特币涨至历史高点,散户FOMO了吗?

图 2 :谷歌上「Bitcoin」的搜索量也在上升,但仍然相对较低

持有者变化

我们正在目睹比特币从长期持有者向较新的短期持有者转移。这种供应变化可能暗示着新市场阶段的开始,经验丰富的持有者开始了结获利并向较新的市场参与者出售。然而,转移的比特币总数仍然相对较低,这表明长期持有者尚未大量抛售他们的比特币。

比特币涨至历史高点,散户FOMO了吗?

图 3 :比特币转手至新持有者的数量仅略有增加

从历史上看,在 2020-2021 年的上一轮牛市中,我们看到大量资金从长期持有者流向新投资者,从而推动了随后的价格上涨。目前,这种转移并不明显,尽管价格上涨,长期持有者选择继续持有比特币。这种惜售的态度表明,持有者对进一步上涨的潜力充满信心。

现货驱动的上涨

比特币最新一轮上涨的一个关键是现货驱动,这与之前依赖杠杆头寸推动的牛市形成鲜明对比。比特币衍生品的未平仓合约仅出现小幅增长,与之前的峰值形成鲜明对比。例如,在 2022 年 FTX 崩盘之前,未平仓合约就相当可观。现货驱动的市场没有过度杠杆,往往更加稳定和有弹性,因为面临强制清算风险的投资者更少。

比特币涨至历史高点,散户FOMO了吗?

图 4 :未平仓合约长期来一直在下降,仅近期略有增加

大户正在囤积

有趣的是,虽然散户地址数量没有大幅增加,但持有 100 BTC 以上的「鲸鱼」地址数量却在不断增加。在过去几周里,持有大额 BTC 的钱包增加了数万枚比特币,价值达数十亿美元。这表明,即使比特币达到历史最高水平,鲸鱼投资者仍然对当前价格水平上涨充满信心。

比特币涨至历史高点,散户FOMO了吗?

图 5 :持有至少 100 BTC 的地址数量达到 2019 年以来的最高值

在过去的牛市周期中,我们看到鲸鱼在市场高峰期附近退出或减少持仓,而这次我们没有看到这种行为。经验丰富的持有者增持是一个强烈的看涨信号,因为它表明了对市场长期潜力的信心。

结论

虽然比特币涨至历史高点重新引起了人们的关注,但我们尚未看到散户出现 FOMO 的迹象。这意味着我们可能只是处于这轮牛市的开始阶段。长期持有者仍然充满信心,鲸鱼正在囤积比特币,杠杆率仍然适中,所有这些都表明市场健康,上涨还会持续。

随着我们继续进入牛市周期,市场结构表明,未来仍有可能出现更大规模的散户推动的飙升。届时,比特币将会被推向新的高度。

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

Vanguard Group Enters the Arena, Opening a New Crypto Portal for 50 Million Traditional Investors

Vanguard Group, the world's second-largest asset manager with $12 trillion in assets under management and over 50 million investors, has signaled a significant strategic shift by posting a job opening for a "Head of Digital Assets, Personal Wealth." The role entails developing a comprehensive digital asset strategy, establishing long-term plans, and overseeing the full integration of digital assets into Vanguard's wealth management platform, covering areas like custody, settlement, asset tokenization, and stablecoins. This move marks a notable reversal from the firm's previous stance. In 2024, Vanguard refused to list spot Bitcoin ETFs and removed Bitcoin futures products. By late 2025, it allowed some third-party crypto ETF trading but reiterated it would not create its own crypto funds. The new hire represents a third step: building an internal team to integrate digital assets into its core infrastructure, moving beyond merely listing products. The initiative focuses on foundational financial infrastructure—how tokenized assets and digital settlement systems can connect to Vanguard's existing platform, which primarily serves long-term, conservative investors. While Vanguard maintains it will not launch proprietary crypto ETFs, it is proactively preparing its systems for a future involving tokenized assets and stablecoins, which Citigroup projects could reach a $5.5 trillion market by 2030. Vanguard's scale means its chosen standards for custody, settlement, and compliance could set de facto rules for the broader wealth management industry. The firm is acting despite regulatory uncertainty and cautious market sentiment (e.g., Citi recently lowered crypto price targets). Analysts suggest even a minimal 0.01% allocation from Vanguard's asset base would bring ~$12 billion into digital assets, forcing the development of robust risk and operational frameworks. Ultimately, Vanguard's focus is on building the plumbing for digital assets to potentially serve its vast client base, an effort whose impact may extend far beyond any single market cycle.

Foresight News9m ago

Vanguard Group Enters the Arena, Opening a New Crypto Portal for 50 Million Traditional Investors

Foresight News9m ago

Paradigm's New Playbook: Crypto in One Hand, AI and Robotics in the Other

Title: Paradigm's New Strategy: Crypto in One Hand, AI and Robotics in the Other On July 8, 2026, top-tier venture capital firm Paradigm announced the successful $12 billion close of its fourth fund, marking a strategic evolution beyond its pure-play crypto roots. While remaining committed to cryptocurrency, the firm is now formally extending its investment focus to include artificial intelligence, robotics, and other frontier technologies. This shift was foreshadowed by a subtle but significant change to its official social media description earlier in March, from "A research-driven crypto investment firm" to a broader "We build and invest in the companies and ideas shaping the frontier." The move is driven by the firm's recognition of transformative technological waves beyond crypto, particularly in AI and robotics, and a response to the shifting capital allocation landscape. Despite significant AI sector fundraising, Paradigm emphasizes its commitment remains grounded in deep technical rigor. A key intersection for Paradigm lies in AI Agents, where decentralized blockchain networks and stablecoins are seen as a natural financial infrastructure for autonomous digital operations. The firm is active in promoting open-source, decentralized AI (e.g., investing in Nous Research) and building agent-friendly blockchains (e.g., incubating Tempo). It is also developing tools like EVMbench (with OpenAI) and the Centaur AI Agent platform. Within its crypto stronghold, Paradigm will continue focusing on core infrastructure areas. These include derivatives and new liquidity layers (e.g., Hyperliquid), prediction markets (with plans for a proprietary trading terminal), and developer tools (continuing development of Reth and Foundry). In summary, Paradigm's expansion reflects a broader realignment in venture capital, where the intense capital concentration in AI and the search for exponential growth compel even crypto-native funds to broaden their narratives. However, this does not signify an abandonment of crypto; instead, the focus is sharpening on real-world financial applications like stablecoins, RWA, on-chain derivatives, prediction markets, and the convergence of Crypto and AI Agents.

Foresight News44m ago

Paradigm's New Playbook: Crypto in One Hand, AI and Robotics in the Other

Foresight News44m ago

The Preferred Stock Domino Effect: Strive Incurs a 7.08 Million Dollar Loss, Strategic Risk Spreading in a Chain Reaction

"Priority Stock Domino Effect": Strive's $7.08 Million Loss Reveals Chain-Reaction Risk in Bitcoin Reserve Sector Bitcoin reserve company-issued preferred shares are no longer just yield assets but a credit test for balance sheet health. While focus remains on Strategy, Strive, the 7th largest public Bitcoin holder, disclosed a tangible spillover effect: its holding of Strategy's (STRC) preferred shares lost $7.08 million in fair value over eight days, despite no change in share count. This exposes a clear cross-company risk transmission channel within the sector. Strive's filing shows its 505,000 STRC shares fell from ~$88.59 to ~$74.57 per share. While Strive remains solvent with 19,864 BTC and $141.7M cash, the loss signals that preferred stock risks can spread via inter-company holdings, shifting their perception from stable income to credit-like, high-risk assets dependent on issuer liquidity and dividend sustainability. In response, Strategy unveiled a "Digital Credit Capital Framework," raising STRC's annual dividend to 12%, mandating a 12-month cash reserve for dividends, and authorizing up to $1B each for STRC/common stock buybacks and a $1.25B Bitcoin sale plan to bolster reserves. This marks a shift to active credit risk management, formally incorporating potential Bitcoin sales to stabilize its capital structure. Third-party valuation tools, like Farside's calculator estimating STRC's net present value at ~$49.89, highlight that pricing now hinges critically on perpetual dividend sustainability and the issuer's ability to pay amid market volatility. Bitcoin's price (~$62k) remains below Strategy's average cost basis ($75,651), intensifying focus on reserve policies. The market faces two scenarios: 1) Contained risk, where STRC's discount narrows and stress is limited to Strategy; or 2) Systemic risk, where deep STRC discounts persist, dividend hikes fail, Bitcoin sales commence, and pressure spreads to other issuers like Strive's SATA shares. Key indicators to watch are STRC/SATA discount levels, dividend coverage credibility, equity issuance rates, and any actual Bitcoin divestment. Strive's future reports will be crucial in determining if its loss is an isolated event or the first sign of sector-wide credit risk contagion via preferred shares.

marsbit48m ago

The Preferred Stock Domino Effect: Strive Incurs a 7.08 Million Dollar Loss, Strategic Risk Spreading in a Chain Reaction

marsbit48m ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

684 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片