Cycle Trading：降息落地后各类资产价格变化

区块律动Published on 2020-09-24Last updated on 2024-09-20

A Country That Mined Bitcoin for 8 Years Has Built Its Own Dedicated Crypto Bank

A country that has been mining Bitcoin for eight years has established its own dedicated crypto bank. DK Bank, located in Bhutan's newly developed GMC special administrative zone, aims to fill the significant banking service gap for the cryptocurrency industry. Its CEO, Zheng YD, explained that most banks avoid crypto businesses due to a lack of risk management frameworks for decentralized and anonymous protocols. Operating under a unique "one country, two systems" governance model separate from mainland Bhutan, GMC aspires to become a financial hub for South Asia. DK Bank differentiates itself by offering integrated multi-currency accounts where users can manage both fiat currencies and stablecoins like USDT and USDC in one place, alongside services like Bitcoin-backed loans. The bank faces technical challenges in merging traditional banking systems with 24/7 crypto markets and implements rigorous on-chain and off-chain transaction monitoring for risk control. GMC's regulatory framework draws from Singaporean common law and Abu Dhabi's ADGM rules, offering a fast-track licensing process for already licensed firms while maintaining high standards. The initiative is part of Bhutan's longer-term crypto strategy, which includes Bitcoin mining since 2018. The focus, however, is on building a diversified institutional-grade crypto ecosystem—including custody and asset management—rather than retail speculative tokens. Proponents argue such sovereign crypto infrastructure is necessary, and Bhutan's early, measured approach exemplifies the thoughtful integration needed in global finance.

Foresight News27m ago

A Country That Mined Bitcoin for 8 Years Has Built Its Own Dedicated Crypto Bank

Foresight News27m ago

Kraken Launches CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Pro Traders

Kraken has launched U.S. CFTC-regulated perpetual futures contracts for eligible institutional and professional clients, making a core crypto derivatives product available on a compliant domestic platform. The contracts, for assets including BTC, ETH, and SOL, are offered via Kraken Pro with clearing through a registered Futures Commission Merchant. This move brings the popular perpetual futures format, which allows leveraged trading without an expiry date, into the stricter U.S. regulatory framework. It provides professional traders a potential alternative to offshore platforms, balancing regulatory comfort with access to key products. However, the launch is explicitly not for retail investors. Its success depends on whether Kraken can build sufficient liquidity to compete with dominant offshore venues on metrics like spreads and execution quality. While symbolically significant for U.S. market maturity, its practical impact hinges on attracting meaningful trading activity onshore.

bitcoinist38m ago

Kraken Launches CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Pro Traders

bitcoinist38m ago

Unveiling the Whales of the World Cup Prediction Market: Smart Money Stumbles on the Pitch, 'Buy No' Outperforms 'Buy Yes'

**Title: Unveiling the Whales of the World Cup Prediction Market: "Smart Money" Stumbles on the Pitch as "Buying No" Outperforms "Buying Yes"** An analysis of pre-match trades over $5,000 on Polymarket for 20 completed group stage matches reveals a counterintuitive finding: large "smart money" bets were not consistently accurate. Aggregated pre-match buying volume was $89.55 million, with a weighted hit rate of only 48.5%. Holding these positions would have resulted in an estimated net loss of about $1.76 million (ROI -2.0%), challenging the notion that big money reliably predicts outcomes. The data highlights several key dynamics. Draws proved to be a major risk, significantly impacting bets on favored teams, as seen in Belgium-Egypt and Spain-Cape Verde. Markets were more efficient for clear mismatches (e.g., Germany's big win) but became prone to bias when favorites were overvalued. Notably, buying "No" shares (betting against a specific outcome) significantly outperformed buying "Yes," with hit rates of 62.4% vs. 37.5%. This suggests the market often overprices popular narratives, creating value in contrarian positions. Individual trades showed extreme volatility. One wallet (mintblade) earned an estimated $6.77 million by betting against Iran, while another (LEEEROYJENKINS) lost roughly $8.39 million on a Belgium win. The market favors high-risk, high-reward information trading rather than steady arbitrage. For sustained insight, wallets with consistent performance across multiple matches (e.g., swisstony) are more telling than one-off big bets. Ultimately, the Polymarket acts less as a crystal ball and more as a mirror, reflecting crowd bias and the inherent unpredictability of football. True "smart money" may lie not in predicting the future, but in identifying and exploiting market mispricings while respecting risk.

marsbit51m ago

Unveiling the Whales of the World Cup Prediction Market: Smart Money Stumbles on the Pitch, 'Buy No' Outperforms 'Buy Yes'

marsbit51m ago

Bezos' Third Startup Still Can't Avoid Musk

Jeff Bezos Returns as CEO for Third Venture, Still Can't Avoid Musk After stepping down as Amazon CEO in 2021, Jeff Bezos has returned to the front lines as co-CEO of Prometheus, an AI startup he founded. In a recent CNBC interview, Bezos described the experience as "Type 2 fun"—exhausting but ultimately rewarding. Founded less than a year ago, Prometheus has already raised over $18 billion in two funding rounds, achieving a staggering $41 billion valuation. Prometheus aims to develop a "General Engineer AI" to accelerate the entire "invention loop"—design, simulation, testing, and manufacturing—for complex physical products like jet engines, spacecraft, and medical devices. This positions the company at the intersection of Bezos's past experiences: Amazon's platform-building scale and Blue Origin's rigorous physical engineering. This marks Bezos's third major venture, following Amazon and Blue Origin. His co-CEO is Vik Bajaj, bringing expertise from life sciences and hard tech. Bezos now dedicates most of his time to Prometheus, signaling his belief in its transformative potential. The move also comes as Bezos's space company, Blue Origin, faces challenges, including a recent test explosion delaying its New Glenn rocket. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's SpaceX achieved a record-breaking IPO, surpassing Amazon's market cap. While Musk focuses on AI for executing physical tasks (like Tesla's robots and SpaceX's engineering), Bezos is betting on AI to *invent* in the physical world. Prometheus enters a crowded industrial AI field with players like OpenAI, NVIDIA, and Tesla's Optimus. Its lofty valuation bets on the unproven but massive opportunity to become the foundational platform for engineering in the AI era—a "blue ocean" Bezos hopes to define before Musk does.

marsbit53m ago

Bezos' Third Startup Still Can't Avoid Musk

marsbit53m ago

Cursor's New 1.5T Model Abandons Kimi Foundation, $60 Billion Stock Swap for Cursor, Musk's First Move Targets Microsoft's GitHub

Cursor, a popular AI-powered coding tool, has been acquired by SpaceX in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. The announcement coincided with Cursor's unveiling of major new developments at the Compile conference: a new 1.5 trillion+ parameter AI model and a "GitHub for agents" platform called Origin. The upcoming model, trained from scratch on over 100,000 GPUs with 10-20x more computational power than before, marks a shift from Cursor's previous reliance on models like Kimi. Cursor's CEO, Michael Truell, emphasized the model will be a "generally intelligent" assistant, moving beyond just code generation to handle broader engineering tasks like planning, testing, and UI interaction. Simultaneously, Cursor introduced Origin, a "Git-native" code hosting platform designed for AI agents that perform thousands of operations daily, featuring automated conflict resolution for large-scale, AI-generated code changes. The acquisition by SpaceX provides Cursor with significant computational resources. Analysts suggest this combination—Cursor's expertise in reinforcement learning and SpaceX's computing power—could position them strongly in the AI race, potentially challenging established players like GitHub, Claude Code, and Codex.

marsbit57m ago

Cursor's New 1.5T Model Abandons Kimi Foundation, $60 Billion Stock Swap for Cursor, Musk's First Move Targets Microsoft's GitHub

marsbit57m ago

Trading

Spot

Futures