SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-09-03Last updated on 2024-09-03

Abstract

比特币在八月以8.6%的跌幅收尾，而作为九月的开头，市场开始讨论季节性的趋势，统计数据显示BTC在过去的六个九月中平均下降4.5%....

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

比特币在八月以 8.6% 的跌幅收尾，而作为九月的开头，市场开始讨论季节性的趋势，统计数据显示 BTC 在过去的六个九月中平均下降 4.5% ，如果这个趋势延续，BTC 可能会跌至 55000 美元，但在 54000 美元附近预计有强力的支撑。

从局部的价格变化来看，BTC 前天一度下跌至一周内最低点后在 57000 美元附近得到支撑，日内反弹回到 59000 左右，隐含波动率变化与价格呈现负相关性，今日价格反弹后期限结构走陡，前端回吐了 2-3% vol 的涨幅，处在略低于过去三个月中位数的位置，基本和 Hourly 的 RV 持平，VPR 上没有太多的机会。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

Source: Deribit （截至 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

Source: SignalPlus，期限结构走陡

从 Vol Skew 的角度看，远端在长期看涨的情绪下维持高位，中前端 Risky 和价格的正相关趋势显著，但昨天值得注意的是 BTC 和 ETH 的涨幅差别比较大，从宏观层面上看，BTC ETF 海量的资金流出，Coinbase 溢价指数转负暗示的抛压以及矿工面临的利润下降困境为市场的情绪蒙上了阴影，从 Flow 上看，ETH 短期的看涨需求帮助推高了 Risky 的溢价，BTC 上尽管仍有远端看涨买入，但此轮价格上行引起的前端 Top Side Wing 上的卖出则无疑是抑制了其 Skew 的上涨。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

Source: SignalPlus，Risky 回升

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

Data Source: Deribit，BTC ETH 交易分布对比

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

Source: SignalPlus，Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240903)：BTC抗压月

您可在 t.signalplus.com 使用 SignalPlus 交易风向标功能，获取更多实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlusCN，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

TRON Nile Testnet Deploys Quantum-Resistant Signature Cryptography

TRON's Nile testnet has deployed an upgrade implementing quantum-resistant signature cryptography, a proactive step to secure its ledger against potential future decryption threats from quantum computing. This development, confirmed via official sources like nileex.io and github.com, represents a notable Layer 1 security enhancement. The report emphasizes its relevance within the current market focus on stablecoins. Crucially, the upgrade is currently active only on the testnet, not the TRON mainnet. While providing a verified data point for the market to weigh, the article cautions that this single development should be considered alongside broader market factors and does not guarantee any specific price action. It stands as a snapshot of ongoing protocol development.

bitcoinist23m ago

TRON Nile Testnet Deploys Quantum-Resistant Signature Cryptography

bitcoinist23m ago

BIS Report Compliance Observations: The True Risks of Stablecoins Go Beyond 'De-pegging'

The BIS report, "Anchoring trust in money: innovation beyond stablecoins," highlights that the primary risks of stablecoins extend beyond potential de-pegging. It argues that the core challenge is whether stablecoins can be integrated into a financial system that is identifiable, monitorable, accountable, and regulatable. While acknowledging efficiency gains like faster payments and programmability, BIS emphasizes that money requires an institutional framework—including legal certainty, liquidity support, and financial integrity controls—which many stablecoins currently lack. The report details compliance risks, noting that while blockchain transactions are transparent, address visibility does not equate to identity or purpose clarity. This creates a systemic risk as pseudonymity, non-custodial wallets, and cross-chain bridges can undermine AML/CFT controls. Furthermore, these risks can spill over into the traditional financial system through on- and off-ramps. The future direction, per BIS, is not to prohibit innovation but to embed regulatory rules—such as identity verification and transaction screening—directly into the technological infrastructure of tokenized finance. The key takeaway for compliance is that any new financial instrument must clearly address questions of customer identification, transaction monitoring, accountability, and cross-border rule consistency to be viable as a mainstream payment tool.

marsbit52m ago

BIS Report Compliance Observations: The True Risks of Stablecoins Go Beyond 'De-pegging'

marsbit52m ago

When US Giants Collectively "Defect" to Chinese AI Models

When Silicon Valley Giants Turn to Chinese AI Models to Cut Costs A surprising trend is emerging: major U.S. tech companies are significantly reducing AI costs by switching to Chinese models. Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, reportedly halved its AI spending after migrating to China's GLM-5.2 and Kimi 2.7 models, despite increasing usage. They achieved this through a sophisticated three-part strategy: implementing an automatic routing system to select the most cost-effective model per task, boosting cache hit rates from 5% to 60% to reuse computations, and employing "context engineering" to provide AI with more precise, less cluttered information. They are not alone. AI startup Lindy switched from Claude to DeepSeek, saving millions, while Snowflake's tests found GLM-5.2 solved 66% of coding tasks compared to Claude Opus's 67%—but at a fraction of the cost (output pricing is 5-7 times lower). While the top Western models may offer slightly better stability, the massive price differential is leading many businesses to reconsider their value proposition. This shift signals a deeper change in the AI industry, moving beyond pure performance benchmarks to a fierce cost competition. As pressure mounts, even OpenAI and Anthropic have begun slashing prices. For users, this means more choices, lower costs, and a crucial lesson: using multiple models based on task complexity, optimizing with caching, and keeping contexts lean are now key to leveraging AI efficiently and affordably.

marsbit59m ago

When US Giants Collectively "Defect" to Chinese AI Models

marsbit59m ago

BIS Report Compliance Watch: The Real Risks of Stablecoins Are Not Just 'De-pegging'

BIS Report Compliance Observations: The real risks of stablecoins go beyond "depegging" The BIS report "Anchoring trust in money: innovation beyond stablecoins" argues that while stablecoins and tokenization offer efficiency gains, their primary risk lies in fitting into an identifiable, monitorable, accountable, and regulatable financial system. Money's trust stems not just from technology but from institutional arrangements: a common unit of account, guaranteed redemption at par, liquidity support, regulatory frameworks, and financial integrity requirements. Stablecoins, operating on permissionless blockchains with pseudo-anonymity and non-custodial wallets, create systemic compliance gaps: unclear customer identity, incomplete fund origins, unexplained transaction purposes, fragmented cross-chain paths, and ambiguous liability. On-chain transparency does not equal compliance transparency. Public addresses don't reveal identity or intent. While blockchain analytics aid law enforcement, they cannot replace routine, large-scale AML/CFT controls. Effective compliance requires a closed-loop process encompassing customer onboarding, transaction monitoring, investigation, reporting, and audit. Stablecoin risks are not confined to the blockchain; they re-enter the traditional financial system via on/off-ramps, exchanges, and payment institutions. This forces banks to monitor client accounts for activity linked to virtual assets. The future direction is not to prohibit innovation but to embed rules into the technology. Tokenized finance should integrate with the existing two-tier monetary system, embedding compliance—like customer identification, pre-transaction screening, and auditable data trails—directly into the transaction flow. For compliance professionals, the key takeaway is that any new financial instrument must answer core questions: Who identifies the customer? Who monitors transactions? Who handles exceptions? Who is liable? Compliance is not the antithesis of innovation but the essential infrastructure for its sustainable growth.

链捕手1h ago

BIS Report Compliance Watch: The Real Risks of Stablecoins Are Not Just 'De-pegging'

链捕手1h ago

When American Giants 'Defect' to Chinese AI Models

Summary: The trend of major U.S. technology firms adopting more cost-effective Chinese AI models is gaining momentum. A prime example is Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, which reportedly halved its AI expenditure by switching to Chinese models GLM-5.2 and Kimi 2.7, while its usage volume increased. This was achieved through a sophisticated cost-saving system featuring intelligent model routing (selecting the most suitable model per task), dramatically improving cache hit rates from 5% to 60%, and implementing "Context Engineering" to streamline prompts. This shift is not isolated. Other companies like the AI startup Lindy and data cloud firm Snowflake are making similar moves, drawn by the significant price disparity. For instance, GLM-5.2 costs $1.40/$4.40 per million tokens (input/output), compared to $5/$25 for Claude Opus 4.7. While top Western models may offer slightly higher stability or speed in complex tasks, the performance gap is narrowing, making the price difference harder to justify for many enterprise use cases. The implications are significant for both businesses and individual users. It highlights the importance of a multi-model strategy based on task requirements, the value of caching and reusing outputs, and the effectiveness of providing concise context. Ultimately, this migration signals a potential reshaping of the AI industry's pricing model, moving competition from pure performance benchmarks to practical cost-effectiveness, with increased choice and downward price pressure benefiting end-users.

链捕手1h ago

When American Giants 'Defect' to Chinese AI Models

链捕手1h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

575 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow