Биткоин (BTC) готовится к возможному спаду в сентябре

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2024-04-02Last updated on 2024-09-02

Сентябрь — исторически худший месяц для биткоина. Аналитики выделили ряд факторов, которые скажутся на цене BTC

Перспективы американского технологического сектора, решение Федеральной резервной системы США (ФРС) и предстоящие президентские дебаты — эксперты Matrixport рассказали, как все это повлияет на биткоин.

Что повлияет на стоимость BTC в сентябре

Аналитики Matrixport отметили сильную корреляцию между технологическим гигантом Nvidia и биткоином с конца 2022 года по второй квартал 2024 года. В последнее время акции компании росли быстрее, чем BTC. Однако сейчас оба актива достигли минимумов, что свидетельствует о потенциале для более глубокой коррекции.

На прошлой неделе акции NVIDIA упали примерно на 8%, даже несмотря на то, что финансовые показатели фирмы за второй квартал превзошли все прогнозы. Курс биткоина снизился примерно на столько же вопреки значительным притокам в спотовые биржевые фонды (ETF).

Читайте также: Прогноз биткоина и Ethereum на сентябрь 2024

Исторические данные по динамике биткоина в сентябре. Источник: Coinglass

Повлиять на BTC также могут и макроэкономические факторы. В частности, данные о занятости в США и потенциальные меры по сдерживанию инфляции.

Ранее председатель ФРС Джером Пауэлл указал на вероятное снижение ключевой процентной ставки, что усиливает оптимизм инвесторов. По их мнению, это окажет благоприятное влияние на биткоин.

Однако специалисты Matrixport предупреждают, что исторические закономерности не дают однозначного ответа на вопрос о том, как будет вести себя биткоин в текущей ситуации. В период повышения ставки в 2018 и 2019 годах криптовалюта испытывала значительные трудности. Когда ФРС приостанавливала повышение ставок или начинала их снижать, биткоин, как правило, демонстрировал кратковременные ралли. Однако эти ралли часто сменялись более длительными периодами снижения цены.

Дополнительную неопределенность добавляют предстоящие выборы президента США. Несмотря на то, что многие криптаны поддерживают Дональда Трампа, все большую поддержку получает и вице-президент Камала Харрис.

Шансы на победу Трампа и Харрис. Источник: Polymarket

На момент написания материала биткоин торгуется по $58 306. По данным CoinGecko, за последние сутки цена криптовалюты выросла на 0,4%.

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USD 34 Billion Valuation: Li Yanhong's Biggest IPO, Kunlunxin's Allocation Shares Are in Short Supply

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Stablecoins Are the 'Royalist Reformists' of the Crypto World: Open USD Brings the Old Monetary System into the Arena

Scholar Hu Yilin analyzes the emergence of Open USD, a new stablecoin backed by over 140 major institutions like Visa and Google. He argues stablecoins like this represent not a crypto revolution, but a "reformist" force within the existing monetary system. While adopting blockchain for efficiency, they ultimately preserve the centrality of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve, acting as a "blockchain upgrade package" for dollar hegemony. This contrasts with a true "cryptocurrency revolution" exemplified by Bitcoin, which seeks to displace central banks as the anchor of monetary order. The launch of Open USD, driven by traditional finance giants, highlights this tension: it may advance stablecoin adoption but also signifies the potential co-option of crypto innovation by the very system it aimed to challenge. True transformation, Hu suggests, requires a paradigm shift where markets operate without a central monetary authority at their core.

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Stablecoins Are the 'Royalist Reformists' of the Crypto World: Open USD Brings the Old Monetary System into the Arena

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