以太坊反映了2016年价格停滞的趋势:以太坊可能会损失更多吗?

币界网Published on 2024-08-22Last updated on 2024-08-22

币界网报道:
    ETH可能会在9月份出现反弹。然而,据分析师称,山寨币在第四季度可能会出现亏损。

以太坊的[ETH]价格已经在2500美元以上盘整了一个多星期,对于靠波动为生的加密货币交易员来说,这是一个无聊的场景。

然而,根据著名加密货币分析师Benjamin Cowen的说法,在计算第四季度可能出现的额外损失之前,最大的山寨币在9月份可能只会经历短暂的复苏。Cowen的预测基于2016年观察到的类似ETH模式。

#ETH/#USD月度蜡烛继续完美追踪2016年。如果它继续发挥作用,这将表明#ETH在9月份是绿色的,然后在10月到12月是红色的

ETH价格的下一步是什么?

然而,QCP Capital警告称,如果美联储在9月份进行大幅下调,ETH可能会进一步下跌。

“大幅向下修正,或特别温和的鲍威尔,可能会扭转2周的股市涨势,并将#BTC和#ETH推至支撑位以下。”

有趣的是,上述混合的ETH观点在加密货币社区已经流行了一段时间。ETH熊市和牛市阵营为价格前景提出了强有力的论据,加深了其不确定性。

然而,Cowen指出,在2025年初,ETH的强劲反弹可能是可行的。

“然后在2025年,#ETH会变绿一段时间。”

与此同时,Glassnode强调,自2022年底加密货币触底以来,以太坊的市场主导地位已从16.8%降至15.2%。

“作为生态系统中的第二大资产,以太坊的主导地位下降了1.5%,在过去两年中保持相对平稳。”

相反,同期比特币(BTC)的主导地位从38%飙升至56%以上,突显出资本可能转向最大的数字资产。

有趣的是,即使是美国现货ETH ETF的批准也没有提升ETH的市场主导地位。尽管由于Grayscale的ETHE资金外流,ETF自首次亮相以来出现了净流出,但贝莱德的ETHA却出现了疯狂的运行。ETHA一个月内净流入10亿美元。

ETH价格分析

在价格图表上,自8月5日的抛售以来,需求有所改善,正如RSI(相对强弱指数)所表明的那样,该指数已从超卖区域上升。然而,需求并不高于平均水平,表明价格缺乏强劲势头。

因此,价格走势较低的关键短期支撑位为2500美元和2300美元。相反,如果市场情绪好转,2.8万美元和3万美元是关键的短期看涨目标。

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