以太坊天然气费用跌至5年低点

币界网Published on 2024-08-19Last updated on 2024-08-19

币界网报道:

以太坊的天然气费用如厕,达到了我们五年来从未见过的水平。没错,那些曾经让你钱包哭泣的交易费用现在大幅下降,这一切都要归功于第2层活动的增加和3月份Dencun的升级。

此次升级大幅降低了第2层网络的费用,使交易更便宜、更快。现在,如果你认为较低的汽油费只是一个脚注,请再想一想。

这一变化正在改变整个以太坊网络的面貌,尤其是随着以太坊供应量的增长对价格下一步的走势产生了一些实际影响。

Screenshot 2024-08-14 at 15.31.07

随着费用的降低,你会认为整个以太坊生态系统都会庆祝,但事实并非如此。

在较低费用的推动下,供应量的增加可能足以控制任何重大的价格变动,即使其他因素,如现货ETH ETF,试图推高价格。

Aave的抵押贷款遭遇挫折

八月对Aave V3并不友好,这是按总价值锁定(TVL)计算的最大的DeFi贷款协议。对Aave抵押贷款的需求已经降温,不难看出原因。

随着加密货币价格暴跌,从8月5日的广泛市场抛售开始,超过2.6亿美元被清算。Aave在5月至7月期间一直处于高位,借款超过还款。

Screenshot 2024-08-16 at 6.06.54 PM

仅在7月份,稳定币借贷量就达到了14亿美元的年度高点。但到了八月,一切都下地狱了。

这一趋势发生了逆转,现在我们看到自本月初以来净流出超过2亿美元。这就像Aave的借款人集体决定按下恐慌按钮。

人工智能与加密货币的合并未能引发人们的兴趣

你会认为合并三个以人工智能为重点的顶级加密项目——Fetch。人工智能、奇点网络和海洋协议——会让人们兴奋,对吧?错了。

上个月开始的合并本应创造一种名为人工超级智能(ASI)的新代币。

这一宏伟计划旨在开发一个不受大型科技公司控制的新人工智能平台。从纸面上看,这听起来不错,但市场并不买账。

Screenshot 2024-08-15 at 11.37.02

更糟糕的是,这些与人工智能相关的代币甚至没有与Nvidia(NVDA)显示出很强的相关性,Nvidia是一家被视为人工智能繁荣风向标的芯片制造商。这些代币与Nvidia之间的相关性已从3月份的0.3-0.4降至0.1-0.2左右。

与此同时,它们与比特币的相关性仍然很强,在0.5到0.7之间。换句话说,交易员将这些代币视为高风险的加密货币赌注,而不是人工智能的下一个大事件。去中心化的人工智能革命到此为止。

有趣的是,就在市场进入全面恐慌模式之前,以太坊在日本交易所的交易量份额在周六晚上短暂跃升至30%以上。

Screenshot 2024-08-15 at 16.34.03

日本市场混乱的背后是什么?其中很大一部分与日元套利交易有关,交易员以低利率借入日元,并将其再投资于美国国债等高收益资产。

当日本央行加息时,这种交易失去了吸引力,其影响迅速显现。当市场平静时,套息交易效果最佳,但当波动开始时,交易员开始争相平仓,导致我们在8月5日看到的大规模抛售。

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