重新审视2019年:美联储降息期间比特币与SPX的分歧并不是什么新鲜事

币界网Published on 2024-08-16Last updated on 2024-08-16

币界网报道:

比特币(BTC)和标准普尔500指数(SPX)经常显示出相关性,特别是在美联储降息等关键经济事件期间。

当央行改变货币政策时,这种关系往往会变得更加明显。然而,比特币的行为有时会偏离传统市场,尤其是在利率调整期间。2024年的现状表明,这种分歧可能会再次发生,与过去的模式相呼应。

BTC和SPX之间的历史分歧

2019年,在美联储降息期间,比特币脱离了之前与标准普尔500指数的相关性。虽然这两个市场在降息前一直在一起,但BTC的波动性更大,加密货币在触底至4800美元左右之前出现了大幅下跌。与此同时,标准普尔500指数短暂下跌,随后继续缓慢而稳定的攀升。

正如加密货币分析师Benjamin Cowen所指出的那样,这种差异突显了在这种货币转移过程中似乎会重复的模式。2019年,比特币的低迷之后出现了强劲的复苏,而标准普尔500指数仍在稳步上涨。

值得注意的是,这种行为对加密货币市场来说并不新鲜。Cowen指出,在经济不确定时期,比特币往往与传统金融市场不同,因为它对风险和宏观经济状况的反应不同。这表明,2019年出现的分歧可能是2024年当前趋势的路线图。

重复的循环?

随着市场观察人士推测类似的分歧,比特币和标准普尔500指数似乎再次成形。比特币已经显示出从之前的高点降温的迹象,而标准普尔500指数继续稳步上涨。

这种潜在的分歧似乎让人想起2019年的周期,比特币在最终稳定并进入新的上升趋势之前经历了下跌。2019年和2024年之间的相似之处表明,比特币最近的回落可能是暂时的,随着市场状况的变化,未来有可能出现反弹。

宏观经济影响

有利的宏观经济条件增加了比特币的前景。美国7月消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨2.9%,略低于预期,强化了温和的货币政策前景。这份报告引发了人们的猜测,即美联储可能会停止加息,甚至考虑降息,这在历史上通过削弱美元和增加对替代资产的需求使比特币受益。

与此同时,CryptoQuant的最新数据显示,中心化交易所的比特币储备已降至2018年以来的最低水平。可供交易的比特币减少表明,投资者正在将其持有的比特币转移到冷藏库中,这可能会降低流动性。

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