Рост Ripple (XRP) — это лишь «отскок мертвого кота»

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2022-03-06Last updated on 2024-08-06

Токен XRP от Ripple за последние 24 часа вырос на 5%, но это типичный «отскок мертвого кота», который часто случается на фоне общего спада на рынке. Несмотря на краткосрочный рост трейдеры продолжают играть на понижение XRP.

Ончейн-статистика указывает на устойчивое снижение спроса и стремление держателей XRP продавать монету при первой удобной возможности.

Краткосрочное ралли не поможет

«Отскок мертвого кота» означает временное восстановление цены актива после значительного падения. В понедельник во время глобальной распродажи XRP упал до 30-дневного минимума на уровне $0,43.

Когда началась восходящая коррекция, XRP пережил «отскок», при этом в моменте суточный прирост цены достигал 12%. Однако ончейн-данные и дневной ценовой график указывают на возможность возобновления медвежьей динамики.

Читайте также: Что такое Ripple (XRP) простыми словами

Аналитики BeInCrypto отмечают негативную корреляцию цены и ежедневно активных адресов (DAA). Этот показатель сравнивает изменения цены актива с изменениями в количестве его ежедневно активных адресов. Инвесторы отслеживают его, чтобы понять, сопровождается ли ценовая динамика соответствующей сетевой активностью.

Расхождение цены XRP и ежедневно активных адресов. Источник: Santiment

На момент написания статьи расхождение цены Ripple (XRP) и DAA составляет -51,65%. Отрицательное значение во время роста цен указывает на то, что активность пользователей или вовлеченность в сеть не поддерживают ралли. Это расхождение всегда сигнализирует о слабом и неустойчивом ралли.

Читайте также: Прогноз XRP на 2024 год — мнения экспертов

Кроме того, положительное соотношение рыночной стоимости XRP к реализованной (MVRV) на уровне 30,88 подтверждает растущее давление продавцов.

Соотношение рыночной и реализованной стоимости XRP. Источник: Santiment

Соотношение MVRV актива измеряет отношение его текущей цены к средней цене, по которой были приобретены все токены в обращении. Когда значение выше единицы, актив торгуется по цене выше себестоимости для многих инвесторов.

При значении 30,88 соотношение MVRV XRP предполагает, что альткоин значительно переоценен. Его держатели могут продать его с прибылью, особенно по мере нарастания медвежьих настроений. Это создаст давление на цену, не позволив ей расти в краткосрочной перспективе.

Прогноз цены XRP: падение ниже $0,50 неизбежно

Если давление на продажу усилится, Ripple (XRP) растеряет все отвоеванные позиции и возобновит нисходящий тренд. В этом случае цена может упасть до $0,46.

Анализ цены XRP. Источник: TradingView

Однако, если покупательская активность возобновится и достаточный спрос поддержит текущий рост, XRP может подняться до $0,52.

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