SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-29Last updated on 2024-07-29

Abstract

在周日备受瞩目的比特币2024峰会上,美国总统候选人特朗普作为重磅嘉宾发表演讲。市场看涨情绪在昨日晚间开始发酵,日内波动高达~3%。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

在周日备受瞩目的比特币 2024 峰会上,美国总统候选人特朗普作为重磅嘉宾发表演讲。演说开始前市场提前兑现了预期的利好,将比特币价格推上 69500 的高点,但多军也在正式开讲以后很快意识到特朗普官宣将 BTC 加入美国战略储备的概率并不是很大,他更多的是把这次演说当成一次总统竞选拉票,市场也因为预期落空而快速回吐之前的涨幅,造成短暂的下跌,期权市场也在会议过程中大量做空波动率,使得 Vol Curve 迅速走陡下行。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Source: TradingView

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol

尽管市场最大的期望(战略储备计划)落空,但特朗普还是延续着拥护加密市场的言论,喊出了诸如“Never sell your Bitcoin!”这样的口号,也讲到他上台第一天要做的事就是炒了 SEC 现任主席 Gary Gensler, “On day one I will fire Gary Gensler”,甚至说了两遍。市场看涨情绪在昨日晚间开始发酵,日内波动高达~ 3% ,一路向上挑战 70000 美元关口,达到数周新高,前端的 IV 和 Vol Skew 也随着价格一路上行,BTC 整体波动率水平回到 55+%以上,Vol Skew 在 3% 上下。

另外,BTC 的 IV 曲线还有其他值得注意点,一是年底以后的波动率水平整体被压低,期限曲线以 27 SEP 24 为支点走平,其二是 2 AUG 和 8 NOV 这两个到期日,暗含了高达 63% /67.5% 左右的 Forward IV,显著高于其他期限。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Source: Deribit (截至 29 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Source: SignalPlus, 25 dRR

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Data Source: Deribit, ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240729):“Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

您可在 t.signalplus.com 使用 SignalPlus 交易风向标功能,获取更多实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlusCN,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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