Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W28

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-13Last updated on 2024-07-13

Abstract

Crypto市场本周处于震荡趋势，仍然缺乏赚钱效应，同时市场缺乏热点，整体价格表现欠佳。

BTC 及 ETH 本周概况

市场表现

Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W28

Crypto 市场本周处于震荡趋势，仍然缺乏赚钱效应，同时市场缺乏热点，整体价格表现欠佳。

重点事件

Mtgox 赔付事件

  • 概况：Mtgox 破产赔付计划已经公布，计划在 3 个月内向受害者分发完毕 BTC 和 BCH，现在链上地址的 BTC 总数未发生新的变化。

  • 分析：Mtgox 随着赔付计划的公布，市场上已经开始慢慢消化 Mtgox 带来的负面影响，BTC 价格虽然仍低于 6 完美元，但是已经开始显示出企稳的信号。预计随着时间的推移，影响也越来越下。

德国政府对 BTC 的抛售

  • 概况：本周德国政府对 BTC 抛售进度已经超过了 65% ，德国政府持有的 BTC 数量已经由 5 万枚降至了 9094 枚。

  • 分析：随着德国政府所持有的 BTC 数量越来越低，市场的恐惧有所缓解，每天转入市场的几千到一万枚 BTC 对市场的影响也变得越来越小，并且出现了本周美国 ETF 每日的净流入量保持在 4000 枚以上，可以看出现阶段 BTC 的价格对市场投资者有一定吸引力，按照其抛售速度，约在下周将抛售完毕。

ETH 现货 ETF 的审批预计下周通过

  • 概况：市场将 ETH 现货 ETF 审批通过预期的时间调整到了 7 月 15 日前，但是市场对 ETH 现货 ETF 的炒作热度有所下降。

  • 分析：本周 ETH/BTC 的汇率对有所上涨，说明了 ETH 在本周内相较于 BTC 是比较强势的。主要还是市场的投资者们在押注下周 ETH 现货 ETF 审批会通过。但是在通过之后很有可能灰度会继续上演 BTC 现货 ETF 通过之后持续流出的现象，对 ETH 价格有所影响。

美国 6 月 CPI 年率

  • 概况：本周四晚公布的美国 6 月失业率（年率）为 3.0% 。

  • 分析：本次公布的 CPI 数据远低于 5 月的 3.4% ，甚至也低于预期值 3.1% ，说明美国的 CPI 正在迅速的降温，并且周三和周四鲍威尔在国会山作工作汇报的时候就说明了美联储不会等到 CPI 降到 2% 才启动降息，从而市场上现在将 2024 年的降息次数已经完全定价为 2 次，甚至有些交易员开始押注 3 次。虽然数据上出现了利好，但是市场价格并没有受到数据利好的影响而上涨，甚至连同美股也出现了下跌。

Altcoin 本周概况


整体表现

    Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W28

从图中可以看出市场情绪在本周虽然仍处于恐慌阶段，但是相较于上周也有所反弹，主要是由于市场上的利空因素被逐渐消化并且宏观经济数据逐渐转好，投资者对未来的信心逐渐恢复。但是仍需注意 Mtogx 与德国政府的影响还未消散，市场仍会存在一定的恐慌情绪，所以现在不宜过于乐观，仍需注意 Mtgox 赔付事件的动向。

涨幅榜概况

过去一周市场代币涨幅前 5 名（未计入交易量过小的代币和 meme 币），数据来源：coinmarketcap

    Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W28

涨幅榜并未表现出"板块集中"的特征，上涨代币分散于各个板块，并且涨幅均高于上周，可以看出本周 Altcoin 出现了不错的反弹迹象。

Meme 代币涨幅榜

    Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W28

    数据来源：coinmarketcap.com

本周大盘出现震荡的趋势，Meme 赛道受市场的关注度下降，本周涨幅对比上周，继续呈现出下降的特征。

社交媒体热点

根据 LunarCrush 每日增长前五和 Scopechat 中 AI 得分前五的数据得出本周（7.6-7.12）统计数据：

出现次数最多的题材是 AI，上榜代币情况如下（未计入交易量过小的代币和 meme 币）：

    Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W28

    数据来源 lunarcrush 和 Scopechat

题材跟踪

    Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W28

    数据来源：SoSo Value

从上表中可以看出按照周回报率来划分，表现最好的是 Layer 2 赛道，最差的是 AI 赛道。

Layer 2 赛道包括了 BTC-L2和 ETH-L2，因为 BTC-L2和 ETH-L2在本年的回报率都能够达到 50% 以上，涨幅相对于其它赛道都是较大的，所以在上两周都跟随大盘进行了大幅度的回调，甚至其中大部分代币都出现了腰斩的现象。也是因为前几周跌幅的巨大，本周在大盘企稳之后，Altcoin 情绪迅速回升，其中 Layer 2 赛道首当其冲的进行了大幅度的反弹，几乎全线代币在本周都呈正涨幅。所以 Layer 2 赛道在本周表现最好只是因为其之前的跌幅较大而进行的反弹，仍然需要在今后观察。

AI 赛道本周除了 IQ 代币之外，都是处于下跌的趋势之中，主要还是因为 AI 赛道中大部分代币均为 VC 代币，并且加上 WLD 的解锁事件，使得市场投资者对其表达了强烈的不满。

下周 Crypto 大事件

  • 周二（7 月 16 日）美国 6 月零售销售月率；BEVM 算力 RWA 生态品牌发布会

  • 周三（7 月 17 日）美民主党议员 Ro Khanna 主持的比特币圆桌会议

  • 周四（7 月 18 日）欧洲央行主要再融资利率

  • 周五（7 月 19 日）韩国国务会议通过《虚拟资产用户保护法》的执行令

  • 周日（7 月 21 日）ETH Global Paris

下周展望

  • 比特币：Mtgox 事件已经确定由 3 个月内逐步赔付，德国政府的 BTC 数量已经减至 9094 枚，预计下周将抛售结束，市场短期内利空因素逐步减少，仍需要持续关注的是 Mtgox 的赔付情况。

  • 以太坊：市场将 ETH 现货 ETF 的时间调整为 7 月 15 日前，届时关注一下是否会通过现货 ETF 的 S 1 。

  • Altcoin：由于市场上的主要利空因素减少，因为之前 Altcoin 处于超跌的状态，所以下周极有可能会继续反弹。

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DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. 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