TUSD脱锚,背后原因几何?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-01-18Last updated on 2024-01-18

Abstract

从异军突起到遭遇挑战,TUSD 市值三个月跌约四成。

原文作者:Karen,Foresight News

本周开始市值前五大稳定币 TUSD(TrueUSD)开始出现脱锚趋势,价格逐渐偏离 1 美元的锚定价值,并在今日一度跌破 0.97 美元,目前已回升至 0.9878 USDT。

对于稳定币来说这样的波动值得深入关注和谨慎应对,可能会引发一系列连锁反应,引发市场恐慌和加剧市场动荡。

TUSD 脱锚,背后原因几何?

TUSD 脱锚有迹可循。币安在最新两期的新币挖矿暂停支持 TUSD 后,TUSD 应声下跌。过去 24 小时,币安上 TUSD/USDT 交易对净流出 1.7 亿美元, 5 日主力净流出 2.8 亿美元。

其次是 FDUSD 的市场份额夺取。在 2023 年 7 月下旬,币安有了稳定币新宠 FDUSD(First Digital USD),FDUSD 由香港实体 FD 121 Limited 于 2023 年 6 月发行。自此,FDUSD 开始抢占 TUSD 等稳定币市场份额,在 FDUSD 推出半年后的今天,市值(21 亿美元)已超越 TUSD,成为第四大稳定币。

当前 TUSD 逾 19 亿原生流通量中,约 77% (14.86 亿)位于 Tron 上,约 20% (3.92 亿)位于以太坊上。而在 Tron 中前五大 TUSD 持有地址就有三个币安钱包地址,光这三个地址持有的 TUSD 总流通量就接近 13 亿,占据 TUSD 总原生流通量的约 68% ,第三大地址为疑似孙宇晨地址。而在币安于 1 月 1 日更新的储备金证明中,TUSD 储备率为 110.27% ,客户净余额为 18.76 亿,币安净余额为 20.68 亿。币安对 TUSD 态度的重要性不言而喻。

TUSD脱锚,背后原因几何?

也有推特用户将 Poloniex 在 12 月份遭到的逾 1 亿枚美元黑客攻击视为造成 TUSD 市场不稳定的一个驱动因素之一,不过从时间维度来看,这一观点的支撑力并不够强或者影响较小。

TrueUSD:波动为正常市场动态和流动性调整

在此情况下, 1 月 16 日,TrueUSD 宣布会计师事务所 MooreHK 将为 TUSD 提供每日鉴证服务,提供 TUSD 储备状况及其储备明细的透明度。根据最新的储备金鉴证报告,截至 1 月 17 日 4: 30 ,TUSD 抵押率为 101% ,在以太坊、Tron、Avalanche、BNB Chain、 BNB Smart Chain 上的发行和流通量逾 19 亿枚(具体为 1, 911, 764, 530.34),储备金账户中的总资产价值为 1, 933, 973, 826.93 美元,包括:

  • 美国短期国债: 1, 142, 679, 876.50 美元;

  • Dirst Digital Trust Limited: 501, 850, 000.00 美元;

  • 美元现金: 289, 443, 950.43 美元。

TUSD脱锚,背后原因几何?

MooreHK 发布的 TUSD 储备金鉴证报告

其中,根据该报告,账户中持有的以美元计价的抵押品是 Techteryx 在一家香港存款机构、一家瑞士存款机构和多家巴哈马存款机构为 TrueUSD 代币持有者的利益而在协议中约定的账户中持有的总余额。具体公司名称并未披露。有趣的是,TUSD 储备金账户资产中有逾 5 亿美元托管与 Dirst Digital Trust Limited,而后者正好是 FDUSD 背后的主体。

TrueUSD 也在刚刚回应称,定期证明正在进行中。最近币安新币挖矿的调整带来了短期套利机会。这些被认为是市场动态和流动性调整的正常现象。此外,涉及全球多家银行的 TUSD 兑换渠道也在顺利运作。TrueUSD 致力于进一步扩大与币安的合作。此外,TUSD 铸币和赎回服务始终可通过 tusd.io 访问。

此外,TUSD 在 Tron 上的第三大地址(TT 2 T 17 开头,被 Aarkham 标记为疑似孙宇晨地址)过去两日从币安热钱包提取 1.12 亿枚 TUSD。据 Lookonchain 分析,该地址在 TUSD 脱钩后销毁 1.04 亿 TUSD,随后往币安存入 2 亿 USDT,并提现近 1.4 亿 TUSD,以使 TUSD 重新回到锚定状态。TGiwro 开头巨鲸从币安提取了 3160 万 TUSD,并在 TUSD 脱钩后将其存入 JustLend 中,随后向 JustLend 借了 1897 万 USDT 并存入币安。

TUSD:从异军突起到遭遇挑战

据官网介绍,TrueUSD 于 2018 年 3 月由总部位于加利福尼亚的 TrustToken(后重塑为 Archblock,也是 TrueFi 贡献方)在以太坊上推出,是一种与美元挂钩的稳定币。2021 年,TUSD 又相继上线 Avalanche、Tron,并于 2023 年 4 月份在 BNB Chain 上推出。

早在 2018 年 5 月,即 TUSD 推出不到后,币安就上线了 TUSD,并同步开放 TUSD/BNB、TUSD/BTC、TUSD/ETH,之后逐步为更多代币添加 TUSD 交易对。而在去年 BUSD 遭遇监管后,币安推出 TUSD 挂单零手续费活动,还在新币挖矿中支持 TUSD(注:最新两期已暂停支持),促使 TUSD 一度成为币安上比特币最大交易对,并迅速崛起。

市值方面,CoinGecko 数据显示,TUSD 市值在 2023 前三个季度异军突起,从年初的 7.56 亿美元激增至 10 月份最高峰 38 亿美元,但随后却开启下跌走势,目前的市值为 21 亿美元,过去三个月跌约 40% 。

TUSD脱锚,背后原因几何?

来源:CoinGecko

TrueUSD 的所有权方面, 2020 年 12 月份,TrueUSD 业务所有权转让给了给亚洲财团 Techteryx,该财团将与 TRON 合作,在以太坊、TRON 和其他区块链网络上发展 TUSD。自 2023 年 7 月 13 日起,Techteryx 将全面管理与 TUSD 相关的所有离岸业务和服务,包括铸币和赎回、客户导入和合规性,以及法币储备和银行和信托关系的监管,不过,在过渡期间 Archblock 将继续为美国客户提供服务。

值得注意的是,本次所有权转让给 Techteryx 也引发了社区的担忧,再加上 Techteryx 无官网,并且缺乏详细介绍信息,使得社区对其信誉产生了质疑。

笔者在 MakerDAO 社区论坛发现,TrustToken 一团队成员曾在 2020 年年底表示,Techteryx 业务遍及香港、新加坡、广州、深圳、北京等地,涉及传统房地产、娱乐、环境和信息技术行业,最大所有者为 Jennifer Jiang 女士(也是 CEO)。同时,其回应孙宇晨并非拥有 Techteryx 的新所有权,Techteryx 也与投资 Poloniex 的公司也没有任何关系。然而声称的 Techteryx 所有者 Jennifer Jiang 究竟是谁,我们无从得知。

前车之鉴,稳定币脱锚易引发流动性危机和信任危机等一系列连锁反应,给市场带来不可忽视的风险和挑战。当前,TrueUSD 也在积极应对,至于后续如何,Foresight News 将持续追踪。

Related Reads

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

STRC, the perpetual preferred stock issued by MicroStrategy to fund its Bitcoin purchases, hit a historic low of $85.32, a 17% discount to its $100 par value. Designed as a "digital credit engine" to trade stably near par and enable continuous share issuance for buying Bitcoin, its plunge signals a breakdown in this model. Three key factors drove the decline: 1. Bitcoin's price fell over 50% from its peak, trading around $63,000 amid hawkish Fed signals. 2. MicroStrategy's cash reserves were depleted after a $1.5 billion convertible note repayment, slashing the dividend coverage for STRC's 11.5% yield to ~7 months. The company then sold 32 BTC to cover dividends—Michael Saylor's first Bitcoin sale since 2022—damaging the "never sell" narrative. 3. A competing Bitcoin-backed preferred stock, Strive's SATA, offers a higher yield (~13%) and daily dividends, drawing investors away from STRC. The drop triggers a negative cycle: STRC below par halts ATM share issuances, cutting off a key funding source for Bitcoin buys and potentially forcing more BTC sales for dividends, further eroding confidence. While Saylor argues the model is mathematically sound—needing only 2.3% annual Bitcoin growth to sustain itself—the market is testing the resilience of the leveraged Bitcoin treasury strategy in a bear market. The STRC price now reflects rising skepticism about this financial machinery's durability during downturns.

marsbit16m ago

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

marsbit16m ago

A Guide to Grayscale’s ‘Bottom Fishing’: Using Cash Flow to Assess Cryptocurrency Value

**Title:** Grayscale's Guide to Bottom-Fishing: Valuing Cryptoassets Using Cash Flows **Summary:** This report by Grayscale Research presents a fundamental valuation framework for cryptocurrency assets, moving beyond pure speculation to analyze those with underlying cash flows. It distinguishes between "commodity-like" assets (e.g., Bitcoin) and "cash-flow" assets, primarily within DeFi. Using the leading decentralized lending protocol Aave as a case study, the analysis applies traditional financial methodologies like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples. Key findings indicate that AAVE tokens are currently undervalued. Despite recent challenges, the protocol's strong revenue growth, ~50% net profit margin, and diversified treasury support a fundamental valuation range of $80-$100 per token (compared to a ~$75 market price at the time of writing). In a base-case scenario driven by stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity, the fair value could rise to around $175 within a year. The report emphasizes that protocol success does not automatically translate to token value. It critically examines the "value capture" mechanisms—such as buybacks, burns, and staking rewards—that channel protocol profits to token holders. Furthermore, it addresses the legal and governance complexities of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), noting their difference from traditional corporate equity but highlighting how robust, transparent governance can align protocol economics with holder interests. The conclusion is that the crypto market is maturing, with capital increasingly flowing towards projects with demonstrable fundamentals, real adoption, and disciplined capital allocation, creating opportunities for value-based investors.

marsbit1h ago

A Guide to Grayscale’s ‘Bottom Fishing’: Using Cash Flow to Assess Cryptocurrency Value

marsbit1h ago

After semiconductors lead the gains, are funds buying into AI orders or a macroeconomic rebound?

After US-Iran talks led to a temporary ceasefire and framework for reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz, U.S. stocks rose on June 18, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.9%. The semiconductor and AI hardware sectors outperformed. This rally stemmed primarily from reduced geopolitical risk, which lowered oil prices and inflation expectations, easing discount rate pressure on high-valuation growth stocks like tech. The key question is not whether tech rebounded, but the nature of the rebound. The market appears to be selectively repricing AI infrastructure plays rather than broadly chasing AI narratives. Gains were concentrated in chips, optical interconnects, memory, and domestic manufacturing—segments tied to tangible data center build-outs and capital expenditure. Intel's ~10% surge, fueled by a Trump statement about potential Apple collaboration, exemplifies this mixed dynamic. It reflects policy catalysts and domestic manufacturing sentiment more than confirmed fundamentals. Meanwhile, strong earnings from companies like Astera Labs (revenue up 93% YoY) provided concrete evidence of AI-driven demand in hardware. In essence, the rally represents a risk-premium recalibration. Lower Middle East tensions opened a valuation repair window, and capital flowed first into AI infrastructure segments with visible near-term revenue streams. The sustainability of this move hinges on upcoming Q2 earnings, specifically continued strength in cloud provider capex, AI server orders, and hardware company guidance. Policy hopes alone are insufficient; the cycle needs validation from orders and financials.

marsbit1h ago

After semiconductors lead the gains, are funds buying into AI orders or a macroeconomic rebound?

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片