# Пов'язані статті щодо Prediction Markets

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Prediction Markets", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

The prediction market, once a niche crypto experiment, has evolved into a mainstream financial and information market, moving beyond a sole reliance on political events. The 2024 US election showcased platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but sustained post-election volume from sports, tech, and economics proved long-term demand. By 2026, a duopoly controls ~97.5% of volume: Polymarket leverages on-chain trading, USDC settlement, and media integrations, while Kalshi uses CFTC compliance to access mainstream finance via partners like Robinhood. New challengers are emerging in specific niches: short-cycle trading (@trylimitless), media-native markets (@MyriadMarkets), social platform integration (@kash_bot), and infrastructure layers (@azuroprotocol, @theclearingco). Key 2026 drivers include AI agents executing over 30% of on-chain trades, media platforms embedding odds as engaging content, and sports becoming the dominant sustained vertical. Core challenges remain: contested volume metrics, state-level regulatory friction classifying markets as gambling, and token airdrop speculation inflating activity. The future lies not with generic clones, but with platforms possessing deep vertical focus, clear distribution advantages, and viable regulatory or on-chain liquidity strategies.

marsbitВчора 09:14

After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

marsbitВчора 09:14

On the Eve of the Tech IPO Boom, Polymarket Joins Forces with NASDAQ to Seize 'Valuation Authority'

At the dawn of a major tech IPO wave, prediction market platform Polymarket is forming an exclusive partnership with Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) to launch contracts predicting the valuations of pre-IPO giants like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX. This move aims to capture the "valuation adjudication right" in the booming but opaque private market, where accurate valuation data is scarce for retail investors. Facing stiff competition from rival Kalshi, which holds an 89% US market share and full regulatory approval, Polymarket's deal with NPM is a strategic counterattack. NPM provides crucial, real-time secondary market transaction data from employee stock sales to settle the new prediction contracts. In return, Polymarket's market-generated probability data becomes a valuable "institutional signal" for NPM's clients. This follows Polymarket's broader strategy of monetizing its prediction data through partnerships with giants like ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) and Dow Jones, integrating its signals into mainstream financial data feeds and media. The Nasdaq deal specifically targets the lucrative and high-profile arena of pre-IPO tech valuations, potentially raising the entry barrier for competitors in this niche.

marsbit2 дні тому 10:35

On the Eve of the Tech IPO Boom, Polymarket Joins Forces with NASDAQ to Seize 'Valuation Authority'

marsbit2 дні тому 10:35

Base Native Leveraged Prediction Market OmenX Officially Launches on Mainnet

Base-native leveraged prediction market platform OmenX has officially launched on mainnet. It currently supports up to 5x leverage, with plans to increase to 10x based on platform liquidity and market conditions. Unlike traditional prediction markets where users fully collateralize YES/NO positions and wait for settlement, OmenX aims to create a trading platform-like experience. Users can open leveraged positions on event outcomes, and actively trade, adjust, or hedge these positions before the event concludes for greater capital efficiency. Alongside the mainnet launch, OmenX introduced a "Hedge-to-Earn" campaign targeting existing users of other prediction markets (initially Polymarket). This initiative allows users to claim incentives or hedging benefits on OmenX based on their existing positions, aiming to introduce them to leveraged trading and active risk management. OmenX positions itself as a derivatives trading platform for prediction market assets. The team believes that as platforms like Polymarket mainstream prediction markets, event outcomes are becoming a new tradable asset class. The next phase of demand will focus on leverage, liquidity, and advanced trading tools. Post-launch, OmenX plans to expand supported market types, optimize liquidity, and develop APIs and additional trading tools. The team is also in discussions with investors and partners to secure resources for further development.

链捕手2 дні тому 13:35

Base Native Leveraged Prediction Market OmenX Officially Launches on Mainnet

链捕手2 дні тому 13:35

OmenX Launches Mainnet as the First Live Leveraged Prediction Market Platform

OmenX has launched its mainnet, claiming to be the first live leveraged prediction market platform. Built natively on Base, it initially offers up to 5x leverage for trading event outcomes, with plans to increase to 10x. The platform aims to provide a derivatives-like trading experience with better capital efficiency and active risk management. Concurrently, OmenX introduced "Hedge-to-Earn," an incentive campaign starting with Polymarket users, allowing them to hedge existing positions. The company has secured a multi-million dollar angel round and positions itself as a trading layer for event-based assets, focusing on crypto, sports, politics, and other high-attention topics.

TheNewsCrypto2 дні тому 12:20

OmenX Launches Mainnet as the First Live Leveraged Prediction Market Platform

TheNewsCrypto2 дні тому 12:20

WSJ: Unveiling the Secret Jury That Controls Disputes on Polymarket

Last month, Garrick Wilhelm lost a $567 bet on the Polymarket prediction platform about whether a ceasefire would be reached with Hezbollah. When a truce was announced, some traders argued it counted, but Wilhelm disagreed. The dispute was settled not by Polymarket, but by a decentralized group of UMA token holders who vote on such disagreements. As trading surges, resolving ambiguous outcomes is a growing challenge for prediction markets. Unlike competitors like Kalshi that decide internally, Polymarket outsources dispute resolution to UMA. Its token holders, mostly anonymous and with voting power weighted by holdings, arbitrate cases. Critics argue this system is prone to manipulation, as voters can also bet on the same markets they judge. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that over the past year, at least 60% of active UMA voters had corresponding Polymarket accounts and held positions in disputes they voted on. Voting power is also concentrated among a few large holders. Polymarket says only 0.2% of bets go to UMA and that the system disperses authority. Its founder has acknowledged flaws and promised fixes. UMA's backers deny any proven manipulation, dismissing critics as sore losers. The platform penalizes voters in the minority to incentivize "correct" outcomes. Disputes are rising, covering topics from a streamer's pregnancy announcement to Iran. This model also helps Polymarket argue it's an offshore platform outside U.S. regulation, a shift made after a 2022 settlement with the CFTC. Some losing traders have formed groups to protest, targeting entities like UMA.rocks, which aggregates votes. Its founder says traders often blame UMA for their own mistakes. A recently ousted committee member, Scout, admitted to both betting and voting but argued involved voters research more thoroughly. He highlighted the dilemma: "Either you have conflicted traders deciding, or you have uninformed outsiders voting. There is no perfect answer right now."

marsbit05/18 11:07

WSJ: Unveiling the Secret Jury That Controls Disputes on Polymarket

marsbit05/18 11:07

World Cup Approaches, Prediction Markets Face a Major Test

The 2026 FIFA World Cup represents a major public test for sports prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have grown significantly by offering tradable markets on event outcomes. This global event, hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico, concentrates risks related to sports integrity, cross-border operations, and gambling ecosystems. A key concern is the potential for insider trading on non-public information (e.g., injuries, lineups), which could be exploited in granular prediction markets. FIFA's choice of its official prediction market partner, ADI Predictstreet, has raised significant doubts. The platform, relatively unknown, has faced scrutiny over the integrity of its executives—including past insider trading allegations and associations with a major EU corruption scandal—its rapid licensing in Gibraltar, and the fact its product was not yet live at the time of the announcement. This partnership begins with a "trust deficit." FIFA itself carries historical corruption baggage, and its deepening ties with betting and data industries fuel concerns about maintaining sporting integrity. While FIFA has established monitoring systems, their effectiveness against potential insider trading across decentralized global prediction markets remains unproven. Major US-based prediction platforms have updated rules to prohibit trading based on confidential information. However, the World Cup's complex ecosystem of federations, teams, and officials makes enforcement far more challenging than in domestic leagues. The event will not determine the fate of prediction markets but will critically test whether they can be integrated as a regulated event-trading infrastructure or remain a high-risk gambling-adjacent activity within global sports.

marsbit05/15 05:11

World Cup Approaches, Prediction Markets Face a Major Test

marsbit05/15 05:11

The Wall Street Journal: Why Does Almost Everyone Lose Money Predicting Markets, Except for a Few 'Sharks'?

"The Wall Street Journal investigates why most users lose money on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, while a small fraction of sophisticated 'sharks' profit massively. Analysis shows over 70% of Polymarket users lose, with 67% of profits flowing to just 0.1% of accounts. On Kalshi, for every winning user there are 2.9 losing ones. The platforms market themselves as tools for quick riches, but the reality is dominated by professional traders and firms using algorithms, vast data resources, and high-frequency strategies that individual retail traders cannot match. These 'sharks' avoid highly unpredictable 'mention markets' (betting on specific words being said), which are popular with casual users who often overestimate small probabilities. The WSJ analysis of over 35,000 completed Kalshi mention markets found the actual payout rate was lower than the odds implied, leading to poor returns. While supporters frame these markets as harnessing 'wisdom of the crowd,' critics point to issues like potential insider trading. The story highlights the case of John Pederson, an unemployed chef who turned $2,000 into $41,000 before losing it all on a mention market bet, ending up in a homeless shelter."

foresightnews05/13 10:12

The Wall Street Journal: Why Does Almost Everyone Lose Money Predicting Markets, Except for a Few 'Sharks'?

foresightnews05/13 10:12

Distribution is King: Robinhood is Devouring the Prediction Markets

Distribution is King: Robinhood is Consuming the Prediction Markets Robinhood has rapidly expanded into prediction markets by integrating Kalshi's event contracts, trading 88 billion contracts in Q1 2026 alone. Its key advantage is its 27.4 million funded users and its ability to cross-sell across stocks, crypto, options, and now prediction markets. This positions Robinhood to evolve from a broker to an integrated information-pricing platform, where event contracts for outcomes like earnings reports are displayed alongside the related assets. While dedicated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket currently dominate, they face existential risk from potential US bans on sports betting contracts, which form a majority of their revenue. Robinhood, through its Rothera LLC joint venture, is moving to own the entire prediction market stack, capturing more revenue and adding interest income from user collateral. Financial modeling suggests Robinhood's prediction market segment could generate $8.25B to $15.75B in revenue by 2028, valuing it between $120B and $300B. Robinhood's deep integration, multi-asset user base, and regulatory diversification create a powerful distribution moat, threatening to absorb value from standalone prediction market platforms.

marsbit05/12 09:04

Distribution is King: Robinhood is Devouring the Prediction Markets

marsbit05/12 09:04

Gate Institute: Polymarket Accelerates Growth, Gate Launches New Portal to Prediction Markets

Gate Research Institute: Polymarket Growth Accelerates, Gate Expands into Prediction Markets with New Portal This analysis examines the growth of the prediction market platform Polymarket, which has evolved from an early experiment into a major event-driven trading venue. Data shows a significant, step-like increase in trading volume and active users, though growth remains heavily tied to major political, sports, and geopolitical events. Fee and revenue growth is driven by both genuine trading demand and recent changes to platform fee structures. Polymarket's market structure is highly concentrated, with over 90% of volume in these few high-profile categories. While it functions as both an information and sentiment market, its price discovery is most active during high-attention news cycles. The platform's core value lies in creating a liquid market for trading the outcome of future events, a unique niche within crypto. Gate's recent integration of Polymarket addresses different challenges. It simplifies access by allowing users to trade with exchange-held USDT, lowering friction for its existing user base. This highlights two emerging pathways for prediction markets: Polymarket's native, on-chain model versus Gate's centralized, low-friction account integration. Both paths will likely coexist, targeting different user segments. Key challenges for Polymarket include ongoing regulatory uncertainty, reliance on cyclical event-driven demand, potential oracle or settlement disputes, and achieving sustainable user retention beyond peak event periods. The platform has proven its commercial viability and ability to scale but has yet to demonstrate it can become a stable, everyday trading category independent of major news cycles.

marsbit05/09 02:07

Gate Institute: Polymarket Accelerates Growth, Gate Launches New Portal to Prediction Markets

marsbit05/09 02:07

2026 Crypto Financing Reshuffle: Gaming and DePIN Are Dead, Two Prediction Market Deals Gobble Up 18% of Yearly Funding

Crypto Funding Shakeup in 2026: Gaming & DePIN Fade, Prediction Markets Dominate Analysis of crypto funding from January 1 to May 6, 2026, reveals a major sectoral shift. The industry raised $8.65 billion across 305 deals. However, a March surge to $4.57 billion was largely due to two mega-deals: BVNK's $1.8 billion acquisition and a $1 billion raise by Kalshi. Excluding these, monthly funding is a sluggish ~$1 billion. Capital concentration is extreme. The Payments ($3.74B) and Consumer ($2.48B) sectors absorbed 72% of all funds. Within Consumer, prediction markets were dominant: Kalshi's $1B and Polymarket's $600M raises together accounted for 18% of the year's total, surpassing all 47 DeFi deals combined ($1.06B). In contrast, Gaming and DePIN sectors saw funding nearly vanish. A strategic pivot is underway. Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activity reached 48 deals, nearly matching the 57 seed-stage rounds. This indicates capital is increasingly flowing toward acquiring established leaders rather than betting on new ideas. The most active investors so far in 2026 are Coinbase Ventures (18 deals), Tether (13 deals), Animoca Brands (11 deals), and GSR (11 deals). Notably, a16z's pace has slowed significantly compared to its 2021-2026 average.

marsbit05/09 00:08

2026 Crypto Financing Reshuffle: Gaming and DePIN Are Dead, Two Prediction Market Deals Gobble Up 18% of Yearly Funding

marsbit05/09 00:08

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