# World Cup Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "World Cup", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

Data Review: How Much Profit Did Prediction Markets Reap from a Single World Cup?

**How Much Did the 2026 World Cup Boost Prediction Markets? A Data Review.** The 2026 World Cup provided a major, temporary boost to leading prediction markets, according to an analysis of Kalshi, Polymarket, and predict.fun. During the tournament, total nominal trading volume reached $543.38 billion on Kalshi, $209.88 billion on Polymarket, and $10.92 billion on predict.fun. While Kalshi maintained an overall lead, Polymarket narrowed the gap significantly in World Cup-specific markets. All platforms saw daily trading volumes roughly double or more during the event compared to pre-tournament levels, but activity largely retreated to baseline shortly after the final. Fee revenue also surged. Kalshi's weekly fees peaked at over $100 million in the fourth week, totaling $473.2 million for the tournament. Polymarket's weekly fees stabilized around $20 million, totaling $111.4 million. Predict.fun saw its weekly fee income rise from a pre-tournament $159k to a peak of $755k, with a six-week total of $3.48 million. Post-tournament, daily fee income declined for all three. Analysis of Total Value Locked (TVL) showed Polymarket's deposits remained flat around $4.4-$4.8 billion during the World Cup and later fell, suggesting the event spurred high-frequency trading but not long-term capital commitment. In contrast, predict.fun's TVL saw a clear inflow during the tournament's knockout stages, rising to a peak near $25 million before easing. The data confirms that mega-sports events can generate massive, concentrated trading volume and revenue for prediction platforms. However, the post-tournament pullback indicates this growth is largely event-driven and doesn't automatically translate into sustained higher activity. The World Cup validated sports as a core trading category and helped users develop repeated trading habits, setting the stage for the next phase of competition focused on user retention and creating consistent trading demand.

Odaily星球日报Ieri 12:14

Data Review: How Much Profit Did Prediction Markets Reap from a Single World Cup?

Odaily星球日报Ieri 12:14

The Most Difficult Thing to Predict on Polymarket Is... When the POLY Airdrop Will Happen

During the recent World Cup, Polymarket saw record-breaking activity, with its "World Cup winner" market reaching $4.32 billion in volume, making it the platform's highest-volume single prediction event ever. Over the six-week tournament, football markets amassed $85 billion in nominal trading volume, cementing sports as a major growth driver. Capitalizing on this surge in traffic, Polymarket quietly increased fees for its sports markets in early July. The taker fee multiplier was raised from 0.03 to 0.05, effectively raising maximum costs per trade by nearly 70% and moving sports out of its lowest fee tier. This follows a broader trend of the platform gradually expanding fee structures across various market categories since the start of the year to boost revenue. However, community focus is increasingly shifting from trading volumes to the long-awaited POLY token airdrop. Despite a senior executive confirming in late 2025 that a token and airdrop were planned for after U.S. market re-entry, no timeline has been provided. Recent actions, like an affiliated account deleting a potentially suggestive tweet and official help pages stating "no airdrop or token generation event has been announced," have fueled speculation and frustration. The community is divided on the reasons for the delay. Some believe Polymarket is waiting for a more favorable regulatory window in the U.S., while others speculate that the platform's strong organic growth and rising fee revenue have reduced the urgency to issue a token, potentially following a path similar to OpenSea. The prolonged uncertainty has led users to question not the *if*, but the *when*, of the POLY airdrop, turning it into one of the platform's most unpredictable events.

Odaily星球日报07/21 02:11

The Most Difficult Thing to Predict on Polymarket Is... When the POLY Airdrop Will Happen

Odaily星球日报07/21 02:11

The Hardest Thing to Predict on Polymarket Is... When Will the POLY Airdrop Happen?

The article discusses Polymarket's record-breaking performance during the 2026 World Cup, where the tournament's champion prediction market alone saw $43.2 billion in volume, surpassing the 2024 US election. The six-week event generated $85 billion in total football-related trading. It then details how Polymarket quietly raised trading fees for its sports markets just before the World Cup ended, increasing the taker fee from a coefficient of 0.03 to 0.05. This move expanded the platform's fee structure, which had been gradually rolling out across different market categories since early 2026, to boost revenue from established user activity. A significant portion focuses on the growing community controversy and uncertainty surrounding the long-awaited POLY token airdrop. Despite a prior executive confirmation that a token and airdrop were planned for after US market re-entry, no timeline has been announced. Recent actions, like deleting a suggestive tweet and adding website warnings about unannounced airdrops, have fueled speculation. Theories for the delay include waiting for a better regulatory window or that Polymarket, now successful with real revenue, no longer feels urgent pressure to issue a token, potentially becoming "the next OpenSea." The community's discussion has shifted from how the airdrop will work to if and when it will ever happen.

marsbit07/21 02:07

The Hardest Thing to Predict on Polymarket Is... When Will the POLY Airdrop Happen?

marsbit07/21 02:07

HIP-4 Enables Permissionless Deployment, Can Hyperliquid Kill Polymarket?

Hyperliquid announced that its HIP-4 prediction markets will soon support permissionless deployments, similar to its successful HIP-3 model for perpetual contracts. This move aims to ignite growth in its underperforming prediction market segment by allowing third parties to create their own prediction markets upon staking 500,000 HYPE (worth approximately $30 million), with the potential to earn up to 50% fee shares. While this strategy mirrors the approach that propelled HIP-3 and platforms like Trade.xyz to dominance in tokenized trading, the article raises significant challenges for HIP-4. Its current performance is weak, with only $216 million in total volume over three months—pales in comparison to Polymarket's $4.6 billion monthly volume. The high staking barrier may exclude smaller teams, potentially limiting innovation and event diversity. Furthermore, Hyperliquid missed the crucial timing window of the 2026 World Cup, a major catalyst for prediction market activity, which competitors like Polymarket capitalized on heavily. The success of HIP-3 was partly due to perfect timing, such as during the U.S.-Iran conflict when traditional markets were closed. Without a similar catalytic event and facing an established leader like Polymarket, it remains uncertain whether Hyperliquid's "decentralized" strategy can successfully disrupt the prediction market landscape.

marsbit07/20 12:01

HIP-4 Enables Permissionless Deployment, Can Hyperliquid Kill Polymarket?

marsbit07/20 12:01

Playbook for WEEX Cup 2026: Data Intelligence, Predictive Insight, and $1M in Community Rewards

WEEX, a leading crypto exchange, engaged its community around the 2026 World Cup with a three-part strategy focused on data intelligence and predictive insight. The initiative launched with the *ForeGate 2026 World Cup Winning Guide*, a dynamic data report created with Solana-based prediction platform Foregate. This living document provided continuously updated advancement odds and analysis, treating the tournament like a financial market. Concurrently, WEEX ran the **WEEX Cup – Dice Rush**, an interactive campaign with a **$1,000,000 prize pool**. Users earned dice through trading and social tasks, rolled for crypto rewards, and used points to predict match outcomes and back a champion team, with greater rewards for supporting less-favored sides. In a prophetic pre-tournament interview, football legend Michael Owen, speaking with WEEX COO Andrew Weiner, highlighted the value in minority opinions. This insight was validated by Cape Verde's historic underdog performance, where the small nation advanced without a regulation-time loss, facing three former champions. WEEX's integrated campaign—data report, interactive game, and expert conversation—was built on a single principle: the highest value in both football and markets is often found where the crowd isn't looking, equipping its community with tools to discover it.

TheNewsCrypto07/17 10:34

Playbook for WEEX Cup 2026: Data Intelligence, Predictive Insight, and $1M in Community Rewards

TheNewsCrypto07/17 10:34

Defending Champions or New Kings? World Cup Final Sees All AIs Backing the Same Side

Will the 2026 World Cup final see Argentina successfully defend their title or a new champion crowned? AI models from various platforms have made their prediction. The final in Buenos Aires pits defending champions Argentina against a resilient Spanish side that has reached this stage with a record of exceptional defensive solidity, conceding only one goal in seven matches. Argentina's path was dramatically different, filled with late comebacks and narrow victories, including a semi-final win over England secured by late goals assisted by the 39-year-old Lionel Messi. A poignant subplot adds narrative weight: a nearly 20-year-old photo shows a young Messi bathing an infant Lamine Yamal, who is now a 19-year-old key player for Spain, symbolizing a potential passing of the torch. In the semi-finals, most AI models incorrectly predicted a French victory over Spain, with only Google's Gemini correctly picking Spain's advancement and also accurately forecasting Argentina's win over England. For the final, however, all six surveyed AIs—ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen—unanimously predict a Spanish victory. Their reasoning centers on Spain's superior defense, midfield control, and better physical preparedness after a less strenuous knockout stage journey. While consensus favors Spain as champions, five of the six AIs believe the match will be tightly contested, predicting a draw (1-1 or 0-0) within regular time, with Spain's advantage potentially telling in extra time or even a penalty shootout. Only DeepSeek forecasts a clear Spanish victory within 90 minutes. The stage is set for a clash between Argentina's legendary fighting spirit and Spain's machine-like consistency, with artificial intelligence firmly backing the latter to lift the trophy.

Odaily星球日报07/17 01:35

Defending Champions or New Kings? World Cup Final Sees All AIs Backing the Same Side

Odaily星球日报07/17 01:35

Semifinal AI Predictions Frenzy: France a Sure Thing? England vs Argentina's Fate Uncertain

"Semi-final AI Prediction Showdown: France Secure, England-Argentina Unpredictable Six AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, Grok) previously correctly predicted all four World Cup quarter-final winners. For the semi-finals, their forecasts diverge. In the France vs. Spain match, five AIs predict a French victory with a unanimous 2-1 scoreline. They cite France's threat on the counter-attack against Spain's high defensive line. Only Gemini disagrees, forecasting a 1-1 draw after extra time and a Spanish win on penalties, believing Spain's possession can neutralize France's transitions. The England vs. Argentina match splits opinion evenly. Grok, DeepSeek, and Qwen favor England (with scores of 2-1 or 2-0), emphasizing physicality and set-pieces. ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude back Argentina. Predictions range from a 2-1 Argentine win in regular time to a 1-1 draw leading to extra time or even penalties, where Argentina's experience is seen as decisive. The models cite fatigue from both teams' taxing quarter-finals as a key factor. The semi-finals present one match with strong AI consensus and another with complete disagreement."

Odaily星球日报07/14 02:31

Semifinal AI Predictions Frenzy: France a Sure Thing? England vs Argentina's Fate Uncertain

Odaily星球日报07/14 02:31

The Strongest Whale in the World Cup Prediction Market? Trades 380 Times a Day, Rakes in $10.32 Million

A user nicknamed "swisstony" has emerged as a dominant "whale" on the prediction market platform Polymarket, reportedly earning $10.32 million in just one month, with total historical profits reaching $18.62 million. The account, active since July 2025, has gained significant attention, amassing over 922,000 profile views. Analysis reveals an exceptionally high-frequency, algorithmic trading strategy. The account has executed 139,617 predictions, averaging roughly 380 trades per day, suggesting API-driven automation. Its overall win rate is a modest 52.9%, but through massive scale and position management, it amplifies a positive expected value (EV). The core strategy appears dual-tracked. First, it places large bets (often $400k-$1M) *against* (betting "NO") heavily favored teams like Germany or England when their implied market probability is perceived as too high, yielding substantial returns when these teams lose. Second, it allocates small amounts ($thousands) to extreme long-shot outcomes with very low implied probabilities (0.2%-1.2%). While most of these "lottery" bets fail, the occasional huge payoff (sometimes over 100x return) significantly boosts overall profits. The account's bio, "trash panda," aptly describes this approach of profitably sifting through market inefficiencies and tiny price discrepancies.

marsbit07/13 09:22

The Strongest Whale in the World Cup Prediction Market? Trades 380 Times a Day, Rakes in $10.32 Million

marsbit07/13 09:22

Making a Fortune of $10.32 Million: The World Cup Money-Printing Tactic of a Polymarket Whale

**Earning $10.32 Million: A Polymarket Whale's World Cup Profit Strategy** While teams battle for the World Cup trophy, a hidden whale nicknamed "swisstony" has been quietly making a fortune on the prediction market Polymarket. This account, created around July 2025, boasts total profits of $18.62 million, with $10.33 million earned in the past month alone. With a 52.9% win rate, it has placed over 139,600 predictions, averaging about 380 trades per day—indicating it is likely a high-frequency quantitative bot. The account's signature "trash panda" aptly describes its strategy: sifting through vast market data and tiny price discrepancies to build wealth. Its current holdings are heavily concentrated on the France vs. Spain semi-final, including a roughly $160,000 bet against France. Analysis shows two core tactics driving its success: 1. **High-Volume "Anti-Favorite" Bets:** Placing large wagers (often $400k-$1M) against overvalued favorites like Germany or England, buying "No" shares at favorable prices when market-implied win probability is 46%-64%. It has recorded over 17 individual profits exceeding $1 million using this method. 2. **"Lottery-Ticket" Bets on Extreme Long Shots:** Allocating small amounts (thousands of dollars) to buy shares priced as low as 0.2¢-1.2¢ on outcomes deemed nearly impossible. While most of these bets lose, the occasional win—like those with payouts over 100x—generates significant profits (over $100,000 per hit) that boost overall returns without risking much capital. This dual approach combines consistent, large-scale profit from correcting major market mispricings with opportunistic, high-reward bets on extreme underdogs. The account exemplifies how systematic, high-frequency execution can amplify a small statistical edge into millions in profits on prediction markets.

Foresight News07/13 04:03

Making a Fortune of $10.32 Million: The World Cup Money-Printing Tactic of a Polymarket Whale

Foresight News07/13 04:03

World Cup Quarterfinals Are About to Kick Off, Who Did the AIs Vote to Advance?

The 2026 World Cup quarter-finals are set, with AI models unanimously predicting France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance to the semi-finals, though they differ on match details. All six AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, Qwen, and Grok) forecast France will defeat Morocco in regulation time, with predicted scores of 2-0 or 2-1. Spain is also favored to beat Belgium, with most AIs predicting a 2-0 or 2-1 win in regular time, though Gemini suggests a possible 1-1 draw leading to a Spanish victory on penalties. The Norway vs. England match is considered the most unpredictable due to Erling Haaland's threat. While all AIs ultimately pick England to advance, predictions range from a 2-1 regulation win to a 2-2 draw requiring extra time. For Argentina vs. Switzerland, AIs predict an Argentine victory, with scores varying from 2-0 to 2-1 in regulation, though Claude and ChatGPT warn the disciplined Swiss could force extra time or a penalty shootout. The core consensus is a final four of France, Spain, England, and Argentina, with the primary disagreements centering on match scores and whether games will require extra time or penalties.

Odaily星球日报07/09 02:38

World Cup Quarterfinals Are About to Kick Off, Who Did the AIs Vote to Advance?

Odaily星球日报07/09 02:38

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