While teams fiercely compete for the World Cup trophy on the field, a hidden whale is quietly making a fortune in the prediction market.
An account with the nickname swisstony on Polymarket has a total historical profit of $18.62 million, with $10.33 million earned just in the last month. The account was first registered in July 2025, a relatively short time, but due to its astonishing profits, its profile page views have now surged to 922,200.
As of July 13, the account has made a total of 139,617 predictions, with a current portfolio value of approximately $606,100. Notably, its current holdings are almost entirely concentrated on the FIFA World Cup semi-final between France and Spain on July 14, 2026. This includes a bet of about $160,000 on France losing the match. Furthermore, it has placed numerous bets, primarily on NO for specific score details, seeking returns of 5%-10%.
The address maintains a win rate around 52.9%, with a total of over 245,000 trading positions and transaction volumes reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. These figures place it in the top tier within the overall Polymarket ecosystem. Public research shows that most retail addresses incur long-term losses, while a few high-frequency, systematic accounts achieve significant positive returns through scaled execution. swisstony's win rate isn't extremely high, but combined with extremely high trading frequency and position management, it amplifies the positive EV (Expected Value) edge.
Since creating the account about a year ago, this address has completed 139,617 prediction operations. This translates to an average of about 380 trades per day, 16 per hour, operating 24/7 without rest. It is highly likely an ultra-high-frequency quantitative trading bot driven by an API.
Its profile description reads "trash panda." In North American culture, the raccoon is a survival master that rummages through trash bins. This signature perfectly captures its core strategy: making money from the vast data garbage and tiny price discrepancies on Polymarket, ultimately building a multimillion-dollar empire.
Over 17 Profits Exceeding $1 Million
Looking at the address's profit history, what's astonishing is that it has recorded over 17 instances where a single profit exceeded $1 million. The largest of these was a bet on Germany's match on June 25th. The whale bet NO, earning $2,221,241, a profit of 111.67%.
The ROI shown in this screenshot is generally very high, with clear advantages in entry prices. The investment scale is large, with single bets often in the range of $400,000 to $1 million.
This whale likes to place large bets on NO (not winning), targeting strong teams overvalued by the market: Germany, Paraguay (appearing multiple times), England, and Japan. Entry prices were mostly between 35.8¢ and 53.7¢, while the market's implied win probability for these favorites at the time was around 46%-64%. However, the actual result was that they lost or didn't win. This is a typical anti-favorite strategy.
100x Returns
In prediction markets, when events the market deems nearly impossible actually happen, the profit returns are extremely exaggerated. This whale is not only skilled at betting big to win big but also excels at betting small to win big.
Taking the matches in the chart as an example, the entry prices were extremely low: 0.2¢–1.2¢ (market implied probability only 0.2%-1.2%). The invested capital was mostly only a few thousand dollars per bet, yet each contributed profits exceeding $100,000.
These events, originally considered almost impossible by the market, actually occurred. The account used minimal cost to secure high returns.
Deploying small capital on extremely low-probability events is akin to a systematic "lottery ticket" strategy. When it hits, it can contribute profits of $100,000+ at an extremely low cost, serving as an excellent supplement to overall profitability. Although the risk capital per trade in such high-multiple trades is low, the win rate is extremely low. Most similar bets lose everything.
Even though most such bets will lose (because the probabilities are indeed very low), hitting just a few occasionally can significantly boost total profits without dragging down much principal.
Overall, it's highly likely that this account's automated system covers a large number of niche, low-liquidity markets where severe mispricing is more common. It then executes a dual-track strategy to profit.
Large capital bets against popular favorites, small capital bets on extreme underdogs. The combination ensures stable, substantial profits while also enhancing overall returns through high-multiple trades.
