# Supercycle Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "Supercycle", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

Nvidia Rack Disassembly Reveals New Growth Opportunity, MLCC Value Surges 182%

Supply bottlenecks in AI infrastructure have expanded to fundamental hardware components like multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs), crucial for stabilizing power and filtering noise in AI servers. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley highlight MLCCs as entering a historic "volume-price dual increase" supercycle driven by AI. Goldman forecasts the AI server MLCC market to surge over fourfold from ~$1.4B in FY2025 to ~$5.8B in FY2030, a 34% CAGR. The core driver is a structural supply-demand imbalance. While AI server demand is projected to grow ~4.3x by 2030, industry capacity expands at only ~10% annually, constrained by internal production of equipment and materials. This is compounded by strong demand from electric vehicles. The shortage is evident, with lead times for high-end MLCCs exceeding 20 weeks. The price cycle has officially begun. Japanese leaders Murata and Taiyo Yuden have raised prices by 15-35% for AI server and automotive MLCCs since April, citing material costs. Japan's April export data confirms the trend, with MLCC export value up 28% year-over-year. Profit leverage is significant: Goldman estimates a mere 5% price increase could boost Murata's FY2027 operating profit by ~13% and Taiyo Yuden's by up to 37%. Morgan Stanley's teardown of Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin AI rack reveals another catalyst: the MLCC value per rack has skyrocketed 182% from the previous generation to ~$4,320, highlighting the component's growing importance. With demand set to massively outstrip constrained supply, and price increases just starting, analysts position MLCCs at the beginning of a major, prolonged upcycle.

marsbit06/01 09:06

Nvidia Rack Disassembly Reveals New Growth Opportunity, MLCC Value Surges 182%

marsbit06/01 09:06

Investment Philosophy of Gavin Baker, an Early Nvidia Investor: Long AI Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Short Overall Market Risk

Gavin Baker, an early investor in Nvidia and founder of Atreides Management, outlines his investment philosophy: going long on AI infrastructure bottlenecks while hedging against broader market risk. He argues AI is not a bubble but a supercycle driven by constraints in power, wafers (semiconductors), and compute efficiency (tokens per watt). True alpha, he believes, lies not in application-layer companies like OpenAI but in "picks and shovels" providers—companies solving physical bottlenecks in GPU connectivity (e.g., Astera Labs), memory (Micron), inference chips (Cerebras, Positron), advanced manufacturing (TSMC, ASML), and energy supply. His portfolio reflects this barbell strategy: concentrated bets on key infrastructure players alongside a significant put position on the QQQ ETF to hedge overall market downside. Baker contends this cycle differs from the dot-com bubble because demand is fueled by the strong balance sheets of hyperscalers (Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft), not debt, and physical supply constraints (e.g., chip manufacturing capacity) prevent runaway overinvestment. He highlights the growing importance of inference (vs. pre-training), vertical/small language models, sovereign infrastructure deployment speed, and the convergence of energy and space (e.g., orbital compute). His long-term view is that performance-per-watt and token cost reduction will dictate winners as AI scaling hits fundamental physical limits.

marsbit05/30 03:23

Investment Philosophy of Gavin Baker, an Early Nvidia Investor: Long AI Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Short Overall Market Risk

marsbit05/30 03:23

Deconstructing the Investment Philosophy of Gavin Baker, Early Nvidia Investor: Long AI Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Short Overall Market Risk

**Summary: Gavin Baker's AI Infrastructure Investment Philosophy** Gavin Baker, an early investor in Nvidia and Cerebras, views AI not as a bubble but as a "supercycle" driven by fundamental infrastructure bottlenecks. He argues the greatest returns lie not in AI applications (like chatbots) but in the "picks and shovels" layer: the physical constraints of power, semiconductor wafers, and compute. His core investment thesis focuses on "performance per watt" — companies that lower the cost per AI-generated token. Key bottlenecks he targets include GPU interconnects (e.g., Astera Labs), memory (Micron), inference chips (Cerebras, Positron), advanced chip manufacturing (TSMC, ASML), and power supply. He also sees value in 3D world-model builders (Unity) for future AI/robotics training and in sovereign infrastructure deployment speed. While bullish on specific AI infrastructure winners, Baker hedges overall market risk by holding QQQ put options. He differentiates the current cycle from the dot-com bubble, arguing it's funded by the strong cash reserves of tech giants, not debt, and is physically constrained by slow-to-scale supply chains (like chip fab capacity and electricity grids), which prevent a runaway bubble.

marsbit05/29 08:33

Deconstructing the Investment Philosophy of Gavin Baker, Early Nvidia Investor: Long AI Infrastructure Bottlenecks, Short Overall Market Risk

marsbit05/29 08:33

Chat with the Godfather of Crypto: $60k Bitcoin is Definitely Not the Bottom, the Real 'Capitulation Moment' is in October

**Summary: Interview with "Crypto Godfather" Michael Terpin on Bitcoin Outlook** Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Ventures and author of "Bitcoin Supercycle," discusses his market views in a podcast. He argues that Bitcoin's price around $60K is likely not the cycle bottom, with odds favoring a further decline to the $48K–$57K range, potentially bottoming in October. Key points include: * **Saylor & STRC:** He clarifies Michael Saylor's recent statement about potentially selling Bitcoin to pay dividends is driven by STRC's retail/ hybrid structure requiring an "escape valve," not a strategic shift. Saylor's large-scale OTC purchases create a floor for Bitcoin's price. * **October Bottom Thesis:** Terpin cites historical patterns (e.g., ~1-year bear markets, Coin Days Destroyed indicator, 23/35-month cycles) pointing to an October bottom. Current selling pressure is largely from leveraged retail liquidations, not whales. * **Cycle Dynamics:** He notes diminishing returns per cycle (e.g., 3000x, 100x, 30x, ~8x) and converging drawdowns. The long-term $1M Bitcoin target by 2033 remains. * **Risks & Narratives:** The real near-term "FTX moment" risk is an advanced AI model attacking a major Ethereum smart contract (e.g., Lido), not quantum computing breaking Bitcoin soon. AI tokens are expected to outperform Bitcoin in the next three years, with profits potentially flowing back into BTC. * **Market Mechanics:** He comments on reported systematic selling by firms like Jane Street and how Wall Street tactics (OTC buying, public market shorting) now influence Bitcoin. * **Supercycle & Design:** Terpin believes Satoshi intentionally aligned Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle with US election years, influencing global liquidity cycles. He discusses Bitcoin's role in a potential new commodity supercycle driven by currency debasement.

marsbit05/19 01:13

Chat with the Godfather of Crypto: $60k Bitcoin is Definitely Not the Bottom, the Real 'Capitulation Moment' is in October

marsbit05/19 01:13

Attracting Global Capital, Asia's New 'Super Cycle' Is Unfolding

Investors are turning to Asia as the next frontier for global equity growth, with a new "super cycle" unfolding across the region. Driven by the AI revolution, Asian markets, particularly South Korea, have seen significant rallies. According to Morgan Stanley analysis, the underlying drivers of Asia's industrial cycle are shifting from traditional sectors like real estate and manufacturing to massive investments in AI infrastructure, energy security and transition, and supply chain resilience. Fixed asset investment in Asia is projected to grow from around $11 trillion in 2025 to $16 trillion by 2030, with a 7% annual growth rate from 2026-2030. The AI wave is a primary catalyst, driving immense capital expenditure for chips, servers, data centers, and power systems. Asia is central to this hardware supply chain. In China, AI investment is focused on building a full-system domestic capability, with the local AI chip market potentially reaching $86 billion by 2030. Beyond AI, China's export story is expanding from EVs and batteries to robotics. The country already captures about half of new global industrial robot demand and over 90% of humanoid robot shipments. This growth phase mirrors the early stages of China's EV export boom. Simultaneously, energy security investments, spurred by AI's massive power needs, are rising, with China benefiting from its leadership in solar, batteries, and EVs. Regional defense spending is also increasing structurally, supporting demand for advanced manufacturing. The main beneficiaries are China, South Korea, and Japan, positioned in core supply chain areas. However, risks remain, including potential overcapacity, profit margin pressures from competition, persistent technological restrictions, geopolitical friction, and workforce displacement due to AI-driven automation. Market volatility is also expected to increase as investor expectations diverge on the realization of these capital investment and export themes.

marsbit05/11 04:18

Attracting Global Capital, Asia's New 'Super Cycle' Is Unfolding

marsbit05/11 04:18

Perspective: The current AI supercycle will last 15 years, but most are still buying stocks in the first FOMO stage

This article outlines a 15-year AI supercycle, segmented into four investment stages. It argues that while most investors are still focused on the first stage, smart money is already moving to the third. **Stage 1: The Foundation (2023-2025) - Priced In** The semiconductor layer (e.g., NVIDIA, AMD) is complete. While growth continues, the historic entry opportunity is over as risk/reward has compressed. **Stage 2: The Build-Out (2025-2027) - In Progress** This phase involves building the necessary physical infrastructure: power/utilities (CEG), cooling (VRT), networking (ANET), and nuclear SMRs (OKLO, SMR). Significant upside remains, but obvious names have already moved. **Stage 3: The Asymmetric Bet (2026-2028) - Positioning Window** AI moves into the physical world. Key areas include robotics/autonomy (Tesla Optimus), space/defense/drones (Rocket Lab, LUNR), and critical materials. This stage presents the best asymmetric risk/reward and is where positioning should occur now. **Stage 4: The Endgame (2028+) - Software Dominance** The mega-cap cloud platforms (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta), with their massive capital expenditure, will build the AI software layer and AGI infrastructure, aiming to win the entire cycle. **Core Conclusion:** The cycle is confirmed in Stage 2. Stage 3 (robotics, space, defense, nuclear SMRs) is where capital is currently rotating for maximum opportunity, while the majority of investors are expected to be 12 months behind this shift.

marsbit05/09 06:37

Perspective: The current AI supercycle will last 15 years, but most are still buying stocks in the first FOMO stage

marsbit05/09 06:37

Finance CEO Raoul Pal Calls The Bitcoin Peak, And You Won’t Believe The Numbers

Financial economist and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal remains highly bullish on Bitcoin despite recent market weakness. He challenges the traditional four-year cycle theory, arguing that Bitcoin is in a five-year supercycle and has not yet reached its peak. Pal projects that Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high of around $140,000 by the second quarter of 2026. He attributes the extended cycle to reduced global liquidity and believes the current bear market has not truly begun, leaving room for further upward movement. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades above $68,500, meaning a rally to $140,000 would represent a gain of over 100%.

bitcoinist04/07 17:01

Finance CEO Raoul Pal Calls The Bitcoin Peak, And You Won’t Believe The Numbers

bitcoinist04/07 17:01

AI Ignites Crypto’s Next Supercycle With BTC And ETH In Front, BlackRock Says

BlackRock's Robbie Mitchnick states that AI will be a more significant long-term driver for crypto than the creation of new tokens. He emphasizes that institutional investors are narrowing their focus to Bitcoin and Ethereum, dismissing most other tokens as lacking lasting value. According to Mitchnick, Bitcoin serves as a savings-style hedge, while Ethereum acts as productive infrastructure for on-chain activities. He highlights a natural alignment between “computer-native money” (crypto) and “computer-native intelligence” (AI), suggesting that autonomous agents are unlikely to use traditional financial systems like Fedwire or SWIFT. Instead, AI will require crypto-based infrastructure for real-world applications. This shift is already underway, with Bitcoin miners diversifying into AI compute services. The long-term outlook favors core crypto assets integrated with AI, rather than speculative altcoins.

bitcoinist03/25 16:02

AI Ignites Crypto’s Next Supercycle With BTC And ETH In Front, BlackRock Says

bitcoinist03/25 16:02

Can Solana’s 755% payment surge trigger a SOL supercycle?

Solana's Total Payment Volume (TPV) surged 755% year-over-year, positioning it as a key player in the Web3 payments expansion. This growth reflects increasing adoption of its high-speed infrastructure for real-world transactions. Institutional confidence is strengthening, evidenced by significant ETF inflows, a growing validator network, and a 69% rise in staking revenue. These factors suggest Solana may be entering an institutional-driven supercycle, with investors focusing on its fundamental utility rather than short-term price action.

ambcrypto03/06 09:02

Can Solana’s 755% payment surge trigger a SOL supercycle?

ambcrypto03/06 09:02

Cost-Averaging SPX6900 Crushed the HODLers – Here’s the Next Play for the 2026 Supercycle

Cost-averaging into SPX6900 (SPX) has proven effective in minimizing losses compared to a lump-sum investment during the recent meme coin downturn, with one investor reducing their drawdown to 13.6% versus a potential 30.54% loss. This strategy is best suited for tokens that inspire strong belief and emotional alignment, not just fundamentals. Maxi Doge (MAXI) is presented as the next such token, channeling a similar community-driven, belief-based ethos as SPX and early Dogecoin. Currently in presale at $0.0002802 per token for a limited time, MAXI offers staking APY and has been vetted by smart contract audits. It targets investors seeking to position themselves before the anticipated 2026 meme coin supercycle.

bitcoinist02/05 10:05

Cost-Averaging SPX6900 Crushed the HODLers – Here’s the Next Play for the 2026 Supercycle

bitcoinist02/05 10:05

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