# S2F Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "S2F", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

Not Your Fault for Not Understanding the Market: Traditional Crypto Indicators Are Failing

The article "When Old Maps No Longer Apply: 8 Failed Classic Crypto Indicators and Their Structural Causes" examines why traditional metrics used to predict cryptocurrency market behavior have become unreliable. Key indicators like the four-year cycle theory (halving events), Pi Cycle Top, MVRV Z-Score, Rainbow Chart, Altcoin Season Index, Fear and Greed Index, NVT Ratio, and Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model have all underperformed or failed entirely in the 2024-2025 market cycle. The author attributes this collective failure to deep structural shifts in the crypto market: - **Institutionalization**: The influx of institutional capital via ETFs and corporate treasuries has created steady demand, smoothing out the volatile, retail-driven price swings these indicators relied on. - **Reduced Volatility**: Lower volatility means indicators depending on extreme price movements (e.g., Pi Cycle Top, Rainbow Chart) no longer trigger. - **Shift in Asset Class**: Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by macro factors (e.g., Fed policy, global liquidity) rather than on-chain events like halvings. - **Data Relevance**: On-chain data (e.g., for NVT, MVRV) is less representative due to Layer 2 solutions, internal exchange settlements, and ETF custody models. - **Scalability Issues**: As Bitcoin's market cap grew, fixed thresholds (e.g., MVRV Z-Score >7) became mathematically harder to hit. The conclusion is that these indicators were built on limited historical data and assumptions that no longer hold. Investors are advised to understand the limitations of these tools and adapt to a new market reality driven by institutional dynamics and macroeconomics.

比推02/19 06:50

Not Your Fault for Not Understanding the Market: Traditional Crypto Indicators Are Failing

比推02/19 06:50

When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: A Review of 8 Failed Classic Crypto Metrics and the Structural Reasons Behind Them

Title: When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: 8 Failed Classic Crypto Indicators and Their Structural Causes The crypto market in early 2026 is marked by confusion as traditional on-chain and technical indicators have collectively failed. This analysis examines eight key metrics that have lost predictive power and explores the underlying structural market shifts causing their obsolescence. The core findings reveal that institutionalization has fundamentally altered market microstructure. Bitcoin ETF inflows created sustained demand, breaking the pure halving-driven narrative. The 2024 halving's supply reduction became negligible against Bitcoin's multi-trillion dollar market cap. This institutional participation smoothed volatility from over 100% to ~50%, preventing the extreme moves needed to trigger indicators like the Pi Cycle Top (relying on 111-day/350-day MA crossover) and Rainbow Chart (based on logarithmic growth curves). The MVRV Z-Score failed as institutional buying raised the realized value floor, compressing its historical range. The "altcoin season" never materialized because ETF flows went exclusively to Bitcoin, not rotating to altcoins, while AI and precious metals diverted capital from crypto overall. The Fear & Greed Index became unreliable as institutional flows decoupled from retail sentiment. The NVT ratio malfunctioned as on-chain volume no longer represented real economic activity. Finally, PlanB's S2F model failed spectacularly (predicting $500K vs. $120K actual) by ignoring demand-side variables and the impossibility of exponential growth at Bitcoin's current scale. Ultimately, these indicators failed because they relied on outdated assumptions: extreme volatility, retail-driven markets, and pure on-chain data analysis. The market has transitioned from a digital commodity to a macro asset influenced by Federal Reserve policy and global liquidity rather than just halving cycles. Investors must understand these structural changes rather than seeking new universal indicators.

marsbit02/19 03:50

When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: A Review of 8 Failed Classic Crypto Metrics and the Structural Reasons Behind Them

marsbit02/19 03:50

Bitcoin Rainbow Chart says ‘accumulate’ – But analysts warn of bear market

Bitcoin briefly rallied to $89,300 following eased geopolitical tensions, but the overall trend remains bearish. On-chain analysts indicate whale accumulation is rising while retail investors exit. Traditional bullish models like Stock-to-Flow and Power Law have failed to predict market behavior. Both the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart and Pi Cycle Top indicator did not signal a market top, unlike previous cycles, suggesting either an incomplete cycle or a prolonged bear market. Analysts caution that underlying data supports a deepening crypto winter, contradicting more optimistic informal indicators. The market awaits clearer signals from macroeconomic events and spot flow momentum.

ambcrypto01/28 07:02

Bitcoin Rainbow Chart says ‘accumulate’ – But analysts warn of bear market

ambcrypto01/28 07:02

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?

The article examines Bitcoin's four-year market cycles, traditionally aligned with its halving events, and questions whether this pattern still holds. It outlines the typical cycle phases: accumulation (low volatility, long-term buying), pre-halving bullish anticipation, a parabolic bull run with retail FOMO and leverage, and a sharp correction leading to a bear market. Bitcoin halvings, which reduce mining rewards by half every four years, are highlighted as a core mechanism for creating scarcity, similar to precious metals. Past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) are reviewed, each driven by distinct catalysts (e.g., Mt. Gox collapse, ICO boom, COVID-19 stimulus) and ending with crashes exceeding 80%. Reasons for the cycle include the stock-to-flow model (measuring scarcity), market psychology/self-fulfilling prophecies, and global liquidity conditions. The current 2025 cycle is noted for unprecedented institutional involvement via ETFs and corporate treasuries, causing Bitcoin to hit new highs before the 2024 halving with less retail participation. Arguments for the cycle's end cite increased adoption by disciplined institutions (reducing volatility), Bitcoin's growing correlation with macro factors like Fed policy, and the diminishing impact of each halving. Key indicators to watch for cycle validation include post-halving price surges, large leverage unwinds, and retail altcoin speculation. The conclusion states that while historical patterns are evident, Bitcoin's evolution into a mainstream asset makes future cycles potentially different. Only time will tell if the four-year cycle persists or becomes obsolete.

marsbit12/16 06:26

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?