# Prediction Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "Prediction", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

Earning $80,000 in One Day: How Top Players Turn Polymarket into Their Personal ATM?

In just under a day, a top trader on Polymarket, using the handle Bidou28old, netted $80,000 by exploiting the platform’s newly launched ultra-short-term prediction markets (5-minute and 15-minute intervals). The user is believed to be a quantitative trader or arbitrageur leveraging low-latency data feeds to capitalize on pricing delays. With only 48 total predictions, the trader maintained a remarkably high risk-reward ratio, often buying outcomes with only a 3-8% probability (e.g., betting on a Bitcoin rebound within minutes during a sharp decline). Even with 7 losses exceeding $10,000, the strategy remained profitable due to high payoff multiples—sometimes as high as 33x. The trader employed strict position management, placing large bets ($7,000–$19,000) on high-probability opportunities and securing returns between $4,800–$6,400 per successful trade. In one notable 30-minute span, the user executed three consecutive winning trades, earning over $18,000, demonstrating a high-frequency, data-driven approach. Activity was concentrated during U.S. evening hours (7:30–11:00 PM ET), suggesting either a North American night trader or a professional Asian quant operating during daytime hours. The trader focused predominantly on Bitcoin and Ethereum due to their high liquidity and volatility. This case highlights how sophisticated players use quantitative strategies and real-time market data to systematically profit from short-term market movements on prediction platforms.

比推Ieri 12:51

Earning $80,000 in One Day: How Top Players Turn Polymarket into Their Personal ATM?

比推Ieri 12:51

NYSE Parent Company ICE Makes Big Moves: Dual Launch of Index Futures Contracts and Predictive Market Sentiment Tools

ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), has announced two major initiatives to expand its presence in the crypto space. First, it launched seven new CoinDesk index-based cryptocurrency futures contracts, including indices tracking Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, BNB, and two composite indices (CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 5). These cash-settled, USD-denominated contracts are designed to offer institutional investors more tools for hedging and portfolio diversification. A planned USDC futures product based on the CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) is also awaiting approval, marking a historic step as the first traditional exchange to list a derivative based on DeFi lending rates. Second, ICE is launching a market signals and sentiment tool powered by data from its investment, Polymarket, a prediction market platform. This tool provides institutional investors with real-time data on event probabilities (e.g., geopolitical events, weather) to aid in investment decision-making and risk management. The move leverages the "wisdom of the crowd" from prediction markets, supplemented by data from Reddit and Dow Jones, to offer unique insights. These actions, following its earlier plans for a 24/7 tokenized securities trading platform, signal ICE's strategic shift from a behind-the-scenes player to a leading force in integrating traditional finance (TradFi) with cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi).

Odaily星球日报2 giorni fa 10:01

NYSE Parent Company ICE Makes Big Moves: Dual Launch of Index Futures Contracts and Predictive Market Sentiment Tools

Odaily星球日报2 giorni fa 10:01

High-Frequency Trading, $100K Annual Income: The Most 'Boring' Profit Myth on Polymarket

A user known as planktonXD (0x4ffe49ba2a4cae123536a8af4fda48faeb609f71) has generated over $106,000 in profit on Polymarket within a year by executing more than 61,000 predictions—averaging around 170 trades per day. This high-frequency, automated strategy focuses on exploiting small, certain opportunities rather than betting on high-risk, high-reward outcomes. The approach is characterized by market-making and micro-arbitrage: placing orders on both sides of the order book to capture spreads or profiting from mispriced options in low-liquidity markets. The largest single win was only $2,527, illustrating a disciplined, risk-managed method that avoids large drawdowns. The bot operates across diverse categories—sports, weather, crypto prices, politics—constantly scanning for pricing inefficiencies. Notable examples include buying heavily undervalued options in niche markets, such as esports matches or extreme crypto price movements, where probability is mispriced due to emotional trading or thin order books. For instance, a $16 bet on SOL falling to $130 (priced at 0.7¢, implying <1% chance) returned $1,574 during a volatile period. Key takeaways: The strategy highlights the power of compounding small gains, the necessity of automation and API tools, and the superiority of high-probability opportunities over high-risk bets. In prediction markets, the most advanced approach isn’t forecasting—it’s managing probability and liquidity.

marsbit02/11 13:06

High-Frequency Trading, $100K Annual Income: The Most 'Boring' Profit Myth on Polymarket

marsbit02/11 13:06

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