Investors Frantically Snap Up AI Firms with 'No Profits': A High-Stakes Gamble on 'the Right to Define the Future'
"Investors are pouring billions into Chinese AI startups with no profits, betting on the future of the industry. A state-backed fund is reportedly in talks to lead DeepSeek's funding at a $45B valuation, just weeks after it was valued at $10B. Along with companies like Zhipu AI, MiniMax, and Kimi (backed by Meituan and Alibaba), their combined valuation exceeds $140B.
This isn't a typical venture capital play. Investors are paying for 'future definition rights'—a chance to set the standards for the next tech era. Morgan Stanley notes a 6-12 month window for this scarcity premium before more AI companies go public.
Despite massive losses, these companies show strong growth. Zhipu AI's API revenue grew 60x, Kimi's annual recurring revenue doubled to $200M in a month, and MiniMax turned its gross margin positive, with over 70% of revenue from overseas. Their valuations vastly exceed profitable firms like iFlytek.
Crucially, technical progress underpins this growth. DeepSeek's latest model boasts costs just 1% of a leading competitor's, while Zhipu AI has raised API prices due to high demand. However, gaps with top global models remain.
Tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba, investing heavily while describing their own AI efforts as 'leaky boats,' are also investing in these startups as a hedge.
Key risks loom: the closing scarcity window, computing power bottlenecks limiting growth, and the sustainability of DeepSeek's cost-advantage model. With state capital now a major player, the success of these companies has become a strategic national concern. The next year will test if their soaring valuations can be justified by future profits."
marsbit05/26 02:06
