Bitcoin price dips under $17.6K June low as FTX nerves liquidate nearly $1B

CointelegraphDipublikasikan tanggal 2022-11-09Terakhir diperbarui pada 2022-11-09

Abstrak

BTC price pressure sees sellers take out existing two-year macro lows, but optimism over a relief “pump” is building.

Bitcoin liquidated $200 million of long positions on Nov. 8 as BTC price briefly tumbled to two-year lows.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

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BTC price sets new two-year low
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Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed carnage across crypto price charts as exchange FTX kept the mood low.

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After initially rebounding over $20,000 on news that the embattled FTX might be bought out by competitor Binance, panic returned after the Wall Street open.

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BTC/USD lost $2,000 in under two hours, seeing a sudden plunge that set a low of $17,120 on Bitstamp.

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The last time the pair traded at that level was in late November 2020, meaning Bitcoin managed to beat the previous macro lows of $17,600 set in June this year.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

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Data from the Binance order book showed the sudden cascade downward puncturing solid buy support at $18,000.
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At the Nov. 8 daily close, an area of interest for trade volume was around $18,400 — a zone still in play at the time of writing nearly 12 hours later.

BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

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Figures from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass, meanwhile, tracked major pain for long investors caught out at the wrong time.

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BTC long liquidations across exchanges totaled $214 million for Nov. 8, while cross-crypto longs were liquidated to the tune of $670 million.

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Combined with shorts, total liquidations for the day were $915 million.

Crypto liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

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"Important weeks ahead"
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Analyzing the situation, popular crypto commentators were cautious about calling an end to price turmoil.
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“Way too soon to know how this resolves, but the fact we are seeing another exchange-driven liquidity crisis at this point in the macro structure is really quite something,” a normally optimistic TechDev tweeted: “Important weeks ahead.”
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Others acknowledged that they themselves had fallen foul of volatility, while beyond crypto, the analysis looked for potential silver linings.

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For trading account IncomeSharks, weakness in the United States dollar over the ongoing midterm elections was a promising sign for risk assets.

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“Looks ready to drop below support,” it wrote about the U.S. dollar index (DXY) on the day: “Stocks looking good. Nasty black swan event ruined the price action for Crypto but once that taste is out of people's mouths we should see $BTC and $ETH put up a little rally. Once again the issue is not with the assets themselves.”

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

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Nov. 10 was already due to be a volatile day for the week, with U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due for the month of October.

Bacaan Terkait

Pembongkaran Strategi Trading Bitcoin: Prediksi Selebritas dan Model Klasik Semua Tidak Akurat, Hanya Empat Indikator Ini yang Tersisa

Penulis, yang bukan trader profesional, mengembangkan strategi trading Bitcoin dengan mengevaluasi berbagai metode prediksi dari 2017 hingga 2025. Ia menyimpulkan bahwa prediksi dari selebritas dan model klasik seperti Stock-to-Flow tidak akurat, sementara indikator on-chain dan data institusional lebih andal. Empat indikator inti yang dipilih: 1. **MVRV Z-Score**: Mengukur deviasi harga dari biaya rata-rata pemegang, efektif untuk identifikasi bottom (daerah hijau), tetapi tidak akurat untuk puncak sejak 2024. 2. **SOPR 28-hari**: Menunjukkan penjualan rugi saat di bawah 1.0, sinyal bottom yang historis stabil. 3. **Aliran Dana ETF**: Indikator institusional kunci sejak 2024, dengan aliran masuk/keluar yang signifikan menunjukkan akumulasi/penjualan. 4. **Likuiditas Makro (Fed dan M2)**: Menentukan arah umum pasar, bukan timing. Fear & Greed Index digunakan hanya sebagai konfirmasi tambahan. Strategi ini mengandalkan resonansi tiga atau lebih sinyal untuk mengambil keputusan. Sistem otomatis memantau data, mengirim notifikasi hanya saat sinyal kuat terdeteksi. Pada 15 April 2026, sistem menunjukkan tiga sinyal bottom: Fear & Greed = 12 (panik ekstrem), MVRV di zona hijau, dan SOPR < 1.0, mirip dengan kondisi bottom historis seperti 2018, 2020, dan 2022. Namun, aliran ETF masih lemah, menunggu konfirmasi institusional. Penekanan pada kerangka kerja yang dapat diuji, bukan prediksi subjektif.

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Pembongkaran Strategi Trading Bitcoin: Prediksi Selebritas dan Model Klasik Semua Tidak Akurat, Hanya Empat Indikator Ini yang Tersisa

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