Crypto Market Weakness: Bitcoin Falls Under Its 200-Week MA, ETH Trading Sentiment Negative

CoingapeDipublikasikan tanggal 2022-07-25Terakhir diperbarui pada 2022-07-25

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After a strong show last week, the broader cryptocurrency market has come under selling pressure once again. Over the weekend, BTC has shown signs of selling pressure and is currently trading 1% down at a price of $22,060 and a market cap of $424 billion.


After a strong show last week, the broader cryptocurrency market has come under selling pressure once again. Over the weekend, BTC has shown signs of selling pressure and is currently trading 1% down at a price of $22,060 and a market cap of $424 billion.


Popular market analyst Rekt Capital explains: “BTC needs to Weekly Candle Close above $22800 to begin a reclaim of the 200-week MA as support”. However, BTC is likely to close this week under the 200 WMA support.


This would mean that bears still have a strong grip over Bitcoin and crypto and last week’s bounce back wasn’t a formidable trend reversal.


If the broader macro environment continues to disappoint going further, we could probably see BTC taking a dive under $20,000 once again.


Altcoin Market: Ether (ETH) Trading Sentiment Turns Negative


Last week, Ethereum posed a strong relief rally moving past $1,600 over the last weekend. However, it has now corrected partially from the top and is currently trading at $1,528 levels. On-chain data provider Santiment explains that the ETH trading sentiment has now dropped into negative territory. The data provider writes:

Ethereum had an up and down Sunday, jumping above $1,640 before dipping back down to $1,540. The trading crowd continues to not believe the hype, and is expecting prices to fall heading into the #FOMC meeting. $ETH should continue to stay volatile.

Courtesy: Santiment On the other hand, the ETH gas fee has dropped significantly. Citing data from Glassnode, crypto analyst Colin Wu explains:

Ethereum’s 7-day average gas fee reached 25.825 Gwei, a record low in a year. Yesterday, the minimum gas fee was reduced to 3gwei, the current gas fee is 4gwei, the ETH transfer cost is $0.51, and the ERC20 transfer cost is $1.

Other altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Polygon (MATCI) have been doing relatively well registering double-digit returns last week. But if the selling pressure continues, the broader crypto market cap might tank under $1 trillion.

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Pembongkaran Strategi Trading Bitcoin: Prediksi Selebritas dan Model Klasik Semua Tidak Akurat, Hanya Empat Indikator Ini yang Tersisa

Penulis, yang bukan trader profesional, mengembangkan strategi trading Bitcoin dengan mengevaluasi berbagai metode prediksi dari 2017 hingga 2025. Ia menyimpulkan bahwa prediksi dari selebritas dan model klasik seperti Stock-to-Flow tidak akurat, sementara indikator on-chain dan data institusional lebih andal. Empat indikator inti yang dipilih: 1. **MVRV Z-Score**: Mengukur deviasi harga dari biaya rata-rata pemegang, efektif untuk identifikasi bottom (daerah hijau), tetapi tidak akurat untuk puncak sejak 2024. 2. **SOPR 28-hari**: Menunjukkan penjualan rugi saat di bawah 1.0, sinyal bottom yang historis stabil. 3. **Aliran Dana ETF**: Indikator institusional kunci sejak 2024, dengan aliran masuk/keluar yang signifikan menunjukkan akumulasi/penjualan. 4. **Likuiditas Makro (Fed dan M2)**: Menentukan arah umum pasar, bukan timing. Fear & Greed Index digunakan hanya sebagai konfirmasi tambahan. Strategi ini mengandalkan resonansi tiga atau lebih sinyal untuk mengambil keputusan. Sistem otomatis memantau data, mengirim notifikasi hanya saat sinyal kuat terdeteksi. Pada 15 April 2026, sistem menunjukkan tiga sinyal bottom: Fear & Greed = 12 (panik ekstrem), MVRV di zona hijau, dan SOPR < 1.0, mirip dengan kondisi bottom historis seperti 2018, 2020, dan 2022. Namun, aliran ETF masih lemah, menunggu konfirmasi institusional. Penekanan pada kerangka kerja yang dapat diuji, bukan prediksi subjektif.

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Pembongkaran Strategi Trading Bitcoin: Prediksi Selebritas dan Model Klasik Semua Tidak Akurat, Hanya Empat Indikator Ini yang Tersisa

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