This column combs the trading status of the spot market and futures market within the day, and analyzes the trading performance of BTC and the overall market. Help investors tap effective trading signals.
Market view
After the official start of the rebound and fall of mainstream currencies such as BTC and eth at the beginning of the year, the price retreated faster. At present, no better support signal has been found. At the same time, the cumulative position explosion of contract bulls continued to grow, and the proportion of long positions decreased, reflecting the adjustment expectation.
goods in stock
1. Exchange BTC stock
Recently, the stock of BTCs in the exchange has dropped to 2.301 million BTCs on April 1, and there are signs of value recovery. From the change of BTC stock in the exchange, the BTC stock has picked up significantly since mid March. It reached 2.311 million on April 10, and the number of BTC in the exchange has stabilized. The increase of BTC stock in the exchange means that the selling pressure increases, indicating that BTC has been in an important selling pressure release stage.
2. Market value and trading volume of the whole network
In the past 24 hours, the overall market trading volume was US $82 billion, and the overall market value decreased by 1.7% to US $2043 billion. Pay attention to the trading volume and market value performance of the market in the recent month. The market value fluctuation space of the whole network is between us $1774 billion and US $2273.4 billion. The current market value has retreated from the peak in three months. In the form of continuous changes in market value, it shows flat top reversal, suggesting a bearish signal.
contract
Contract transactions in mainstream currencies such as BTC can find spot prices and improve the direction of price operation. At the same time, it can also provide hedging methods for spot investors. Analyzing the long and short position direction, position change and leverage performance of the contract can help us confirm the trading signal.
1. Statistics of warehouse explosion in the whole network
The number of open positions indicates the effect of the release of market resistance during the price operation. The larger the number of open positions, the greater the reverse capital strength. After a short period of time, the excessively high position explosion amount can also prompt the price reversal signal. Because the fund increases the number of positions in the opposite direction in a short time, promoting the reverse operation of the market in a short time.
Network wide contract explosion
On April 11, the empty single explosion warehouse of the whole network contract reached US $62.8 million, and the multi single explosion warehouse of the whole network reached US $53 million. In the eight trading days since April 4, the cumulative exposure scale of multiple orders reached US $638 million, while the exposure scale of empty orders was US $243 million in the same period. This shows that the current currency holding risk of BTC bulls continues to grow. At present, the BTC is relatively sensitive, and it is near us $42300, which is about to break.
2. Statistics of positions and turnover of the whole network
The contract trading volume of the whole network was stable. The position rebounded to US $40.51 billion on April 11, up 41.2% from the lowest US $28.67 billion on January 23; The turnover was US $72.07 billion. The contract position is at a high level within one year and is in the stage of short-term withdrawal. The short-term contraction of trading volume, the reduction of positions and the slight contraction of positions indicate that more investors participate in contract positions, and the impact on key points can be paid due attention.
3. Statistics of long and short positions of the exchange
The proportion of long and short positions in the exchange intuitively reflects the strength of long and short positions, and the dynamic proportion of long and short positions better verifies the trading signal. When multiple positions account for a large proportion, it indicates that the buyer has strong strength, and the BTC price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. On the contrary, the short strength is strong, suggesting a short signal.
On April 11, the proportion of multiple empty orders in BTC was 0.99%, the proportion of multiple orders was 49.77%, and the proportion of empty orders was 50.23%. The proportion advantage of the short side has remained unchanged since April 28, which means that there is more energy to promote the decline of BTC prices. At present, the proportion of BTC bulls shows signs of slight decline again. In the short term, we can pay attention to the release of selling pressure.
4. Contract capital rate
The higher the contract capital rate, the more information the bulls have about the price rise. The latest capital rate value of BTC shows that the fluctuation space of capital rate since 2022 is small, and the financing cost on more trading days is lower than 0, which means that the cost of financing for investors to buy BTC is very low.
After March 20, when the financing cost rebounded slightly, the recent rise and fall of BTC price means that there are more short-term financiers holding on to the market. Nevertheless, the continued retreat of BTC showed no signs of improvement, but narrowed the decline. This also shows that BTC has the opportunity to rebound and break through the short-term pressure level to further confirm the upward trend. If the rebound breakthrough fails, there will be more investors holding on to the market this time, which is more likely to further promote the decline of BTC.
