Cryptocurrency Investment Advice: “When in doubt, shrink”

Tap Chi BitcoinDipublikasikan tanggal 2023-06-13Terakhir diperbarui pada 2023-06-13

Abstrak

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it is essential that investors consider many factors before making any investment decisions. Relying solely on short-term price movements can lead to an immediate reaction, potentially missing out on the long-term potential that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies possess.

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has gone through a tumultuous period, with Bitcoin and many altcoins in the red, worrying many investors. However, a closer look at Bitcoin's On-Chain data reveals a more positive and reassuring outlook.

CryptoQuant, a well-known On-Chain analytics firm, recently reported that despite the short-term volatility of the market, Bitcoin appears to be in great shape, demonstrating resilience and growth potential. . The company has provided three key charts, which shed light on key metrics, to reinforce this point.

The first chart shows the exchange's Bitcoin reserves continuously decreasing, indicating that investors are withdrawing their funds from exchanges, potentially signaling a shift to long holding strategies. term rather than active trading. A decrease in the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges could contribute to increased scarcity and bullish pressure in the future.

Reserve Bitcoins on exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

The second chart depicts the percentage of Bitcoin held by long-term holders, comparable to previous market cycles. This data implies that despite recent market volatility, a significant portion of Bitcoin investors remain confident in the asset's long-term outlook. The stability shown by long-term holders reinforces the view that Bitcoin is more than a short-term speculative instrument and highlights the cryptocurrency's resilience amid market uncertainty.

Bitcoin Holding Rate | Source: CryptoQuant

The third chart focuses on Bitcoin's hashrate, a measure of computing power used to secure the network. Currently, the hashrate is at an ATH, showing strong cybersecurity and growing interest from Miners. A higher hashrate signifies increased engagement, investment, and overall confidence in Bitcoin, further cementing its lead in the crypto space.

Bitcoin Hashrate | Source: CryptoQuant

While it is natural for investors to feel skeptical during a market downturn, the advice of an old stock market guru, “When in doubt, zoom out, let's zoom out,” is also relevant in the crypto space. By taking a step back and adopting a broader perspective, the situation becomes more encouraging. Looking beyond short-term price movements, On-Chain data presents a positive story about Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

It is important to note that market volatility is Capital to cryptocurrencies and prices can fluctuate unpredictably. However, On-Chain analysis provides valuable insights into Bitcoin's fundamentals, suggesting that the recent drop may not accurately reflect the cryptocurrency's true value.

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it is essential that investors consider many factors before making any investment decisions. Relying solely on short-term price movements can lead to an immediate reaction, potentially missing out on the long-term potential that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies possess.

Bacaan Terkait

Huang Renxun: Prompt Sudah Usang, Loop adalah Paradigma Baru

**Ringkasan:** **Prompt Sudah Ketinggalan Zaman, Loop adalah Paradigma Baru.** Menurut Huang Renxun (Jensen Huang), pendiri NVIDIA, tugas utama di era AI sekarang bukan lagi menulis perintah (prompt), tetapi **menulis dan mengelola loop (siklus).** **Apa itu Loop?** Loop adalah sistem di mana Anda mendefinisikan suatu tujuan, dan AI menjalankannya secara mandiri—memeriksa hasil, memperbaiki kesalahan, dan mengulangi proses tersebut hingga tugas selesai atau mencapai batas tertentu. Manusia beralih peran dari "pemberi perintah" menjadi **"perancang aturan" atau "arsitek sistem."** **Loop vs. Agent:** Agent adalah "pekerja" yang menjalankan tugas. Loop adalah **mekanisme pengelolaan** yang memungkinkan Agent bekerja terus-menerus tanpa pengawasan manusia. Agent dengan loop menjadi sistem yang dapat berjalan otomatis. **Contoh Penerapan:** Produk seperti Claude Code (dengan fitur /loop, /goal, /schedule) dan OpenAI Codex telah menerapkan konsep ini. Mereka membagi tugas kompleks ke beberapa Agent yang berjalan paralel di lingkungan terisolasi, dengan model terpisah untuk menulis kode dan memvalidasi hasil, memastikan objektivitas. **Bagaimana Memulai Loop?** 1. **Uji Kelayakan:** Pastikan tugas berulang, dapat divalidasi otomatis, dan anggaran token mencukupi. 2. **Mulai dari Loop Minimal:** Bangun sistem dengan pemicu otomatis, keterampilan (skill), file status (STATE.md), dan "gerbang" validasi (seperti pengujian). 3. **Pisahkan Pemeriksa dan Pelaksana:** Gunakan model atau Agent berbeda untuk menulis kode dan memeriksa/mengujinya. Ini kunci untuk kualitas. 4. **Hindari Jebakan Umum:** Tetapkan batas pengulangan dan token, simpan status, hindari tugas yang membutuhkan pertimbangan manusia, dan tetap tinjau perubahan kode (diff). 5. **Ukur Efektivitas:** Metrik utama adalah **biaya rata-rata per perubahan yang diterima.** **Evolusi Paradigma:** Perkembangan AI menunjukkan pergeseran berkelanjutan: 1. **Prompt Engineering** (2023-2024): Fokus pada cara menulis perintah. 2. **Context Engineering** (2024-2025): Fokus pada informasi dan latar belakang yang diberikan ke AI. 3. **Harness Engineering** (2025-2026): Fokus pada lingkungan eksekusi dimana AI dapat menggunakan alat dan sumber daya. 4. **Loop Engineering** (sekarang): Fokus pada merancang sistem siklus otomatis yang berjalan mandiri. Konsep loop memiliki akar akademis, seperti dalam framework **ReAct** (Reasoning + Acting) yang dikembangkan oleh Yao Shunyu dkk., yang menggabungkan penalaran dan tindakan dalam sebuah siklus. **Catatan Penting:** Meskipun menjanjikan, teknologi ini masih awal. Perlu kehati-hatian terhadap biaya token dan kompleksitas. Seperti dikutip Andrej Karpathy, **"Anda dapat mengalihdayakan pemikiran Anda, tetapi Anda tidak dapat mengalihdayakan pemahaman Anda."** Pemahaman mendalam tentang masalah tetap berada di tangan manusia.

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