On April 23, Bitcoin was quoted near $78,000, having broken through $79,000 yesterday, hitting a new high since February this year.
ETH, on the other hand, continues to fluctuate around $2,400, with some altcoins experiencing significant surges.
According to Coinglass data, over the past 24 hours, the total unrealized contract liquidation data across the network was $462 million, with short positions accounting for $353 million in liquidations. According to the latest data from CMC, the market fear and greed index has rebounded to 60, indicating a neutral sentiment.
Global risk assets continue their rebound momentum.
US stock markets hit new all-time highs yesterday: the S&P 500 index closed at 7,137.90 points, up 1.05% for the day; the Nasdaq Composite index reached 24,657.57 points, a gain of 1.64%, refreshing its record high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,490.03 points, up 340.65 points or 0.69%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilized near 98.61, showing only slight fluctuations compared to the previous day.
Trump Announces Extension of Ceasefire Agreement on Wednesday
Trump announced on Wednesday an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement by 3 to 5 days. Coupled with strong first-quarter corporate earnings reports, US stocks quickly recovered from the consecutive pullbacks of the previous two days.
On Wednesday, the S&P and Nasdaq closed at record highs, with the chip stock index achieving sixteen consecutive gains, while oil prices surged simultaneously, showing a divergence from the market's optimistic sentiment.
Trump announced the extension of the ceasefire in response to requests from Pakistani mediators, stating that US-Iran talks could resume as early as Friday, but Iran later denied the possibility of negotiations on Friday.
The Iranian President expressed "welcome for dialogue and agreement" but simultaneously criticized Trump for "contradictory words and actions"; Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and chief negotiator, stated that a comprehensive ceasefire is impossible without the lifting of the blockade.
Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday, marking three consecutive days of gains this week. WTI crude oil futures rebounded to levels seen before the talks broke down, while Brent crude approached $102.
On Wednesday, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 index closing at a new high and the Nasdaq刷新ing its historical peak. Tech stocks led this round of gains. The S&P 500 technology sector rose about 2%, performing the best among the 11 sectors.
Furthermore, according to the latest data from Polymarket, market bets on the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates once this year have risen to 30%.
As expectations for easing Middle East tensions heat up, the US dollar's safe-haven attributes have significantly weakened. Combined with the return of market bets on Fed rate cuts within the year, global capital is accelerating its withdrawal from US dollar assets.
Data shows that the US Dollar Index has fallen about 2.3% from its late March high, potentially marking its worst monthly performance since last August.
Wall Street institutions generally believe that this round of dollar weakness is essentially driven by a dual factor: "the fading of safe-haven premiums + a shift in policy expectations."
JPMorgan has restarted its short-dollar strategy,转而看多 riskier currencies like the Australian dollar; Bank of New York Mellon also pointed out that the broad rebound in emerging market currencies reflects a significant recovery in global risk appetite.
BTC Spot ETF Achieves 6 Consecutive Days of Net Inflows
Regarding BTC spot ETF data, it has seen 6 consecutive days of sustained net inflows. From April 14 to 21, the total daily net inflow for ETFs was consistently positive.
Among them, the single-day net inflow on April 17 reached a high of $663.91 million, the highest recently; April 14 and April 20 recorded net inflows of $411.5 million and $238.37 million respectively; April 15 contributed $186 million.
As for net outflows, they occurred on only 4 days, and the single-day outflow amount never exceeded $400 million.
Regarding Ethereum spot ETFs, since April 9 this year, they have achieved a rare 9 consecutive days of net inflows.
April 17 even saw a single-day net inflow of $127 million, setting a new high for the month. In terms of net outflows this month, they occurred on only 4 days.
Regarding stablecoin data, according to DefiLlama, it has currently risen to $320.6 billion, with a net inflow of $635 million over the past 7 days.
Subsequent Trends
glassnode published a data graph stating that Bitcoin has recovered the $78,000 level, with both spot demand and ETF fund inflows returning. Short positions are accumulating alongside negative funding rates, creating potential for a short squeeze.
However, excessively high realized profits and低迷 volatility release cautious signals, and the upside near $80,000 faces resistance.
BIT tweeted that new sources of Bitcoin demand are gradually emerging.
Sustained accumulation by Strategy provides relatively stable buying support for the market, and clearer signs of allocation capital inflows are beginning to appear. Specifically, the Coinbase Premium has continued to rebound, and the single-day net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs once reached approximately $664 million, a high since mid-January.
These signals collectively point in one direction: the demand structure is repairing. Corporate treasury buying, ETF fund inflows, and US spot demand are forming a combined force. Support at price lows is becoming more solid, market participation is also recovering, which is明显 different from the environment during the previous adjustment phase.
Combined with the analysis of stablecoin capital回流 from yesterday, support at the liquidity level is also gradually strengthening. These two clues corroborate each other, suggesting the market may be gradually building a new consolidation range. This does not mean the行情 will move linearly upward, but if the above trends continue, the probability of prices advancing towards the upper end of the range is increasing.
