Key Takeaways
Treasury company ETH demand and a $160 billion stablecoin base keeps optimism alive. Yet, with September seasonality weak and BTC near $108k pressure, recovery signals may not appear until Q4.
Bitcoin [BTC] was struggling to defend the Short-term Holder Cost Basis at $108k. The macro outlook stayed constructive in the mid-term, with market consensus for a 25 bps rate cut in September reaching 90%.
In the coming weeks, U.S. Treasury borrowing was set to drain dollar liquidity and put a strain on risk assets, AMBCrypto reported.
Such pressure risked a BTC pullback to $100k. Would such a pullback be an opportunity for Ethereum [ETH] to show its strength, or will ETH prices suffer as well?
Why Ethereum catalysts may not spark instant recovery
Wall Street Strategist and Fundstrat Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee predicted a $12k Ethereum by the year-end. He called Ethereum the “biggest macro trade” of the decade.
Stablecoins, AI, and Project Crypto were the three major catalysts Lee cited. Recently, the Stablecoin Supply on Ethereum surpassed the $160 billion figure, marking an all-time high.
Source: Blockworks
Another factor that could boost the sentiment behind Ethereum was institutional adoption.
Distilling Tom Lee’s interview, the expectation is that Ethereum could be the foundation layer of global finance and AI.
The crypto treasury company data showed that ETH purchases have ramped up since the first week of June. So much so that in recent weeks, ETH made up the bulk of purchases made by companies in August.
If this trend continues, it could lead to a price recovery.
Why September often trips Ethereum holders
Source: Barchart
However, historical trends revealed that September has not been kind to Ethereum.
Since 2017, the asset logged negative or barely positive returns in September. On the flip side, the final quarter typically rewarded holders.
Source: Elja on X
In a post on X, user Elja showed how a path to $6k is possible by the end of 2025.
Using historical overlays, the average track showed ETH could embark on a year-end rally, but it might not start immediately.
Having said that, even with bullish catalysts, investors had to weigh seasonal headwinds. Patience, naturally, looked like the stronger trade in the coming weeks.
