Bitcoin isn’t the spring chicken it used to be. Lately, the market has been moving with a lot more patience, and the people holding Bitcoin today aren’t the same ones who panicked in past cycles.
With large players buying more and older coins moving too, Bitcoin’s behavior is changing. That will matter in the long-term.
What’s going on?
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju is of the view that capital flows into Bitcoin [BTC] have “dried up.”
Source: X
There’s a steady uptrend right now in capital actually locked into Bitcoin, even with mild price changes.
According to Ju, long-term institutional holders have broken the old whale-versus-retail cycle, making sudden 50% crashes from the top far less likely. Bitcoin is stalling right now, and for traders waiting on a dramatic flush…well, you may die of boredom first.
Where is the supply going?
These numbers start to make more sense when you look at who’s buying. In 2025 alone, the 21 largest Bitcoin holders added roughly $40 billion worth of BTC.
Source: River
Strategy [MSTR], the U.S. Government, miners, funds, and new corporate entrants all increased holdings.
Total balances pushed to about 2.75 million BTC, or over 13% of total supply. This makes supply tight during tougher, darker days, which can help explain why Bitcoin keeps stalling rather than breaking down.
That said…
Supply isn’t completely locked away.
Source: CryptoQuant
There’s been a spike in Exchange Inflows from older Bitcoin cohorts, especially coins dormant for six months to over a year. These are experienced holders choosing to move coins even at elevated prices.
Importantly, this activity showed up before the recent pullback, so the correction was likely supply-driven.
This adds friction to the market. Not a full trend break, but enough selling to slow the pace, and turn Bitcoin into a more patience-testing trade.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin looks harder to crash and easier to stall.
- Older coins moving to exchanges explain the pullbacks, but not a full breakdown.
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