SpaceX Shares Predicted to Recover No Earlier Than Early 2027
Analysts predict that a significant recovery in SpaceX's share price is unlikely before early 2027, when the current insider lock-up period is scheduled to end. Recently, shares have traded in a narrow range around $118-$124, still 48% below their 52-week high of $225.64. The short-term outlook depends heavily on potential insider selling, especially with the 52-week low of $110.85 acting as a floor.
SpaceX's market capitalization stands at $1.56 trillion, but the company is not yet profitable, as evidenced by a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and an additional $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026, attributed to heavy investments in Starship and AI infrastructure. The stock is currently trading at over 84 times trailing revenue, a valuation analysts say depends on a substantial future increase in Starlink's cash flow.
The unlocking of 911.5 million shares worth ~$116 billion on August 6, 2026, followed by a phased release schedule, adds significant uncertainty. Quarterly results on August 4, 2026, could provide a short-term catalyst if Starlink performs strongly or Starship milestones are met.
Wall Street analyst consensus for a 12-month price target is around $240, but individual forecasts vary widely from $63 to $800, reflecting deep divisions over the company's recovery prospects and future valuation. Key ratings include Morgan Stanley's $300 target and Oppenheimer's more modest $190 target.
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