Vanguard Group Enters with $700 Million, Has MSTR Hit Bottom?

marsbitPublicado a 2026-01-22Actualizado a 2026-01-22

Resumen

Vanguard Group, the world's largest asset manager, has invested over $700 million in MicroStrategy (MSTR) through its index funds, signaling a significant institutional entry point. This comes amid a steep decline in MSTR's stock, which had fallen nearly 200% from its highs, and widespread negative sentiment questioning the company's high-leverage strategy and financing capabilities. Despite the prevailing fear, several major players are taking contrarian positions. Beyond Vanguard's passive index fund purchases, the Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) made a small but symbolic allocation. Furthermore, active managers like Jane Street Group and Capital International Investors substantially increased their holdings and call option positions in Q4 2025. The article posits that MSTR has evolved beyond a simple role as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. It now acts as a crucial intermediary layer that absorbs and transmits Bitcoin's volatility. Due to its high liquidity and mature options market, selling pressure during a downturn is often directed at MSTR stock rather than Bitcoin spot markets, potentially cushioning BTC's price drops. The conclusion is that a market bottom is not defined by a specific price but by the moment when major institutions begin to act against extreme pessimism. The actions of these investors are ultimately a bet on the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin itself.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | DingDang (@XiaMiPP)

On January 20, MicroStrategy once again disclosed an acquisition of 22,305 bitcoins, valued at approximately $2.13 billion. This marks MicroStrategy's largest single purchase since 2025.

Over the past few months, MicroStrategy's stock price has fallen continuously from its high of $457, with a decline nearing 200%. Skepticism surrounding MicroStrategy has also intensified. From high leverage and refinancing capabilities to the transmission mechanism between Bitcoin price volatility and stock price, almost all negative narratives have been revisited. Particularly after the mNAV fell below 1, voices criticizing MSTR have been incessant.

Amid this skepticism, a widely circulated article titled "The Fed vs. The Treasury: The Currency War Behind Bitcoin's Plunge" even compared MicroStrategy to a "Bitcoin central bank," suggesting it is caught in a博弈 (game/struggle) between the traditional financial system (the Fed, Wall Street, JPMorgan) and the emerging system (the Treasury, stablecoins, Bitcoin-collateralized financing). It also accused institutions like JPMorgan of systematically shorting MSTR through methods like delayed settlements and options market suppression.

Simultaneously, index provider MSCI signaled that it might remove MSTR from its indices. If this occurs, it could theoretically trigger passive selling of approximately $8.8 billion. MicroStrategy's own calculations also indicate that, in extreme scenarios, it might trigger $2.8 billion in stock liquidations.

Panic seems to be escalating...... While the market worried about whether it would "sell Bitcoin" or "be able to refinance again," MicroStrategy chose to act in the clearest and most powerful manner, embodying the label of a staunch Bitcoin believer.

The Bottom Is Not a Price, But a Moment When a Certain Behavior Begins to Appear

In an article published on December 3rd titled "$1.44 Billion Dividend Reserve Fund Finalized, Stock Price Plunges 10% Instead, What Is MicroStrategy's Real Problem?", Odaily Planet Daily pointed out: MicroStrategy's highly concentrated asset structure, reliance on capital market refinancing, and valuation model deeply tied to Bitcoin's price are its endogenous genes. Precisely because of this, when market trends reverse, these structural characteristics do not "suddenly fail"; instead, they amplify volatility more drastically. The rapid price decline, in turn, reinforces the pessimistic narrative, causing risks to be magnified and repeatedly discussed on an emotional level.

Therefore, when almost everyone is extremely bearish and the news is full of negative factors, it often means that the bad news might be getting digested, or may even already be digested. This is why Buffett's saying, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful," is repeatedly quoted.

Thus, what is worth observing in the market is not whether these bearish factors are valid, but rather, whether 'lone brave' investors choosing to go long on MSTR have already emerged at the moment of most extreme sentiment, while the bad news still exists.

The answer is: Yes, and there's more than one type.

Vanguard Group: Institutional Funds Begin to Intervene

Vanguard is one of the world's largest asset management companies, with assets under management exceeding $12 trillion. Since the beginning of 2026, two of its index funds have successively their purchases of MSTR, totaling approximately $707.5 million.

It is important to emphasize that this is not an active expression of a bullish stance, as most of Vanguard's assets are automatically adjusted based on changes in index constituents. This means the current buying is likely driven by passive index tracking requirements.

On January 20, the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VVIAX) disclosed its first purchase of MSTR stock, totaling 1.23 million shares, valued at approximately $202.5 million. This is a value index fund focused on large-cap companies considered undervalued by the market, with core screening criteria including low P/E ratio, P/B ratio, and higher dividend yield, among other value characteristics.

A similar situation occurred with another mid-cap index fund, the Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VMCIX). The fund disclosed its purchase of 2.91 million shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $505 million. MSTR's continued market cap growth made it eligible for inclusion in the mid-cap index, forcing the fund to increase its holdings to match the index weight.

Overall, Vanguard's two purchases are likely mostly tracking behavior by index funds rather than active investment. But it is precisely in this kind of "viewpoint-free" capital inflow that a key change is happening: MSTR is being institutionally incorporated into the traditional asset allocation system, becoming a compliant vehicle for Bitcoin risk exposure.

Pension Funds' Exploration: The Signal Behind Small Positions

In the more conservative field of pension funds, the Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) disclosed on December 31, 2025, that it held 17,900 shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $3.1 million, accounting for 0.02% of its roughly $16 billion in assets.

This is not an aggressive allocation; in fact, the position is extremely small.

But LASERS is the retirement system for public employees in Louisiana, managing retirement assets for over 100,000 state employees (including teachers and other public workers), with a total size of approximately $15.6 billion. The fund's investment portfolio is primarily concentrated in US large-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. The appearance of MSTR in such a portfolio—can we view it as: Indirectly gaining Bitcoin exposure through a public company structure is beginning to be considered a discussable, testable option by some state-level public funds. Although LASERS's holding of MSTR is small, it represents a cautious and preliminary interest in crypto assets.

When Active Management Funds Choose the Other Side

Unlike passive index funds, the choices of active management funds are closer to a direct judgment of risk and return.

At the end of Q4 2025, globally renowned quantitative trading and market-making firm Jane Street Group disclosed that its MSTR position increased by 51.72%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 11.0588 million to 16.7784 million, while simultaneously holding a large number of call option positions.

In the same quarter, Capital International Investors also disclosed that its MSTR position increased by 713.07%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 1.5589 million to 12.6749 million.

Furthermore, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his core trading strategy this quarter was going long on MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, using them as high-leverage tools to bet on Bitcoin's trajectory.

Several asset management firms, including Bernstein, TD Cowen, and The Benchmark Company, also maintained Buy ratings on MSTR. For instance, TD Cowen stated that although short-term yields are under pressure, related metrics are expected to improve in fiscal year 2027 as Bitcoin prices recover.

Finally

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten proposed a noteworthy perspective: In this cycle, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has absorbed about 75% of the drawdown, thereby preventing Bitcoin itself from experiencing a decline of the same magnitude, as volatility was transferred from spot Bitcoin to MSTR common stock.

Simultaneously, Michael Saylor's large-scale stock issuance at around 1x mNAV essentially acted as the ultimate risk absorber. At this valuation level, new incoming risk was transferred to investors willing to buy MSTR at that price level, rather than continuing to pressure the Bitcoin spot market, thus somewhat inhibiting the formation of a bear market.

The significance of this perspective lies in redefining the relationship between MSTR and Bitcoin. MSTR is no longer just a high-leverage proxy for Bitcoin; it is gradually evolving into an intermediary layer that carries, transmits, and releases Bitcoin's volatility in the current market structure. Because its stock has higher liquidity, mature short-selling mechanisms, and rich options tools, when market risk appetite declines, investors might prefer to express their risk assessment of Bitcoin by selling or hedging MSTR, rather than directly selling Bitcoin spot.

Of course, these institutions and individuals choosing to go long MSTR may not necessarily be correct. But their existence itself is worth serious observation. Because the structural bottom of the market is often not born after sentiment improves, but at the moment when sentiment is still extreme, yet some have already chosen to act contrarily.

And observing investor behavior regarding MSTR at this stage is also observing how they view Bitcoin's risk, expectations, and cycle position.

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat was the value of Bitcoin that Strategy recently acquired, and why is this purchase significant?

AStrategy acquired 22,305 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $2.13 billion. This is significant because it is the largest single purchase of Bitcoin by the company since 2025, demonstrating a strong commitment to its Bitcoin strategy despite market downturns.

QWhy did Vanguard Group invest over $700 million in MSTR, and what does this indicate about institutional adoption?

AVanguard Group invested approximately $707.5 million in MSTR through its index funds (VVIAX and VMCIX) primarily due to passive index tracking requirements, as MSTR's market capitalization growth made it eligible for inclusion in certain indices. This indicates that MSTR is being systematically integrated into traditional asset allocation frameworks, serving as a compliant vehicle for Bitcoin exposure.

QHow did the Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) approach investing in MSTR, and what signal does this send?

ALASERS invested $3.1 million in MSTR, representing a very small 0.02% of its $15.6 billion portfolio. This cautious, minimal allocation signals that public pension funds are beginning to explore indirect Bitcoin exposure through regulated public companies, viewing it as a discussable and testable option.

QWhat actions did active fund managers like Jane Street Group and Capital International Investors take regarding MSTR in Q4 2025?

AJane Street Group increased its MSTR holdings by 51.72%, to approximately 16.78 million shares, and held a large number of call options. Capital International Investors increased its stake by 713.07%, to about 12.67 million shares. These actions reflect active managers taking significant long positions, betting on MSTR as a leveraged play on Bitcoin's future performance.

QAccording to the analyst James Van Straten, what role does MSTR play in the Bitcoin market during downturns?

AJames Van Straten suggests that MSTR absorbed about 75% of the drawdown in this cycle, meaning its stock price declined significantly more than Bitcoin itself. This transferred volatility from the Bitcoin spot market to MSTR's shares, acting as a buffer that may have helped prevent a deeper bear market in Bitcoin by concentrating the selling pressure on a more liquid and tradable equity instrument.

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