Bitcoin ETF approval won't trigger crypto market rally — Options Data

Greeks.live, a platform for trading crypto options, has dampened hopes of a significant price surge after the U.S. regulator approves a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) with data from its platform.
According to a tweet by Greeks.Live, recent market data from its trading platform indicates that despite speculation about the SEC approving the Bitcoin Spot ETF application next Tuesday, there has been little volatility in major term implied volatilities (IVs) and prices.
Term IV measures the market’s expectation of future price movements in options contracts.
According to a Reuters report, the U.S. SEC could contact the Bitcoin ETF applicants earlier next week. This development is anticipated to be crucial for the crypto market, enabling investors to trade Bitcoin-backed ETFs on regulated exchanges. However, the tweet pointed out the unexpectedly low market activity in reaction to the news.
There is news in the market that the SEC will pass the Bitcoin Spot ETF application as early as next Tuesday, but there was little volatility across the major term IVs and the price.
Looking at the options data, Jan12 options IV, which is strongly correlated to the ETF, fell… pic.twitter.com/f1B4ZPC05d
— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) December 31, 2023
The options data showed that the implied volatility for Jan12 options, closely tied to the ETF, decreased instead of rising. Moreover, the trading volume for these options was significantly low, making up only 2% of the day’s total turnover.
Related: JPMorgan CEO criticized for Bitcoin ETF role amid anti-crypto comments
Drawing from these insights, Greeks.live asserted that the market has already considered the potential approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF. In simpler terms, participants in the market could have expected the occurrence and modified their positions accordingly, resulting in the actual approval having a limited impact on prices and volatility.
Asset managers BlackRock, Valkyrie and Van Eck submitted amended S-1 forms to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on Dec. 29, the final day for the SEC to consider them in January 2024. Invesco Galaxy, Bitwise, WisdomTree and Fidelity Form S-1 applications coming in after.
BlackRock's updated filing named Jane Street and JPMorgan Securities as “authorized participants” in its proposed spot Bitcoin ETF application. BlackRock has already specified that it will use a cash-only model. It was the first user to settle a trade on JPMorgan’s Tokenized Collateral Network service on Oct. 11.
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