War Trade Unwinding | TradeXYZ Weekend Observations

marsbitPublished on 2026-06-15Last updated on 2026-06-15

Abstract

Weekend markets saw a clear return of risk appetite. Major indices rose broadly, with significant gains in tech and precious metals, while energy sectors fell sharply on the "end of war" narrative. On June 14, oil prices initially rose on reports Iran had not yet finalized a memorandum of understanding. Later, YNET reported Trump might immediately lift the maritime blockade on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. At 21:30, Trump confirmed on Truth Terminal that a deal with Iran was done, authorizing an immediate end to the US blockade and toll-free opening of the Strait. Iran's deputy foreign minister simultaneously announced an immediate and permanent halt to military actions on multiple fronts. Oil prices had already fallen to weekend boundaries, pre-pricing the news. The S&P 500 subsequently touched 7530. Markets will likely remain in a waiting period until the formal peace deal signing on June 19. At the moment of the deal announcement, gold jumped from ~4,221 to a high of 4,337, and silver from ~67.85 to 70.83, before stabilizing at higher levels. Individual stocks and ETFs like NBIS, RKLB, and LITE performed strongly. NBIS, added to the Nasdaq index, saw a target price increase due to strong AI cloud growth. RKLB, also added to the index, benefited from positive SpaceX valuation sentiment. LITE received a $1,130 target from JPMorgan. SPCX rose quickly after Musk tweeted SpaceX could potentially reach ~$1 trillion in revenue by 2030. In summary, the market shock from the m...

Weekend market sentiment was almost entirely one-sided in favor of risk-on.

Major indices rallied across the board, with tech and precious metals surging; the energy sector was hit hard (CL −1.79%, Brent −1.23%, NATGAS −0.7%), the most direct footnote to the "end of war" narrative.

Crude Oil & US Stock Indices

On June 14th, 07:31, Fars News Agency cited a source close to the negotiation team stating: Iran has not yet made a final decision on the proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Oil prices immediately rose to 82.6.

On the same day at 19:51, YNET further reported: Trump might be willing to immediately lift the US maritime blockade on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, rather than doing so gradually as per the current agreement.

At 21:30 in the evening, the decisive moment arrived. Trump posted on Truth Terminal stating: "The deal with Iran is done" "Authorizing immediate lifting of US maritime blockade" "Authorizing toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz." Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister simultaneously stated that multiple fronts (including Lebanon) would announce an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations that evening.

It is worth noting that by this time, crude oil prices had already fallen to TradeXYZ's weekend price boundary, the market having "pre-priced" this news.

The S&P 500 index subsequently touched $7,530.

Before the official signing of the peace agreement (on the 19th), the market will most likely still have to go through a waiting period.

Precious Metals

At the exact same moment the agreement news was announced at 21:30, gold jumped from around 4,221 directly to a high of 4,337, and silver surged from around 67.85 to a high of 70.83, subsequently stabilizing at high levels.

Individual Stocks / ETFs

Several individual stocks such as NBIS, RKLB, and LITE performed strongly over the weekend.

NBIS: Was included in the Nasdaq Index on June 12th; Compass Point raised its price target, citing strong growth in its AI cloud business—Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million, a 683.9% year-over-year increase.

RKLB: Also included in the Nasdaq Index on June 12th, buoyed by sentiment spillover from SpaceX's valuation.

LITE: JPMorgan gave a $1,130 price target in a report on June 11th.

SPCX also showed strength. Musk, in a weekend Twitter reply, stated, "I think SpaceX might achieve around $1 trillion in revenue by 2030." SPCX rose 0.56% on TradeXYZ within minutes.

Overall, the shock brought to the market by the three-month-plus war is beginning to unwind. The agreement will not be officially signed until June 19th, with Israel's moves being the biggest variable during this period.

Fed Chair Warsh's debut on Wednesday this week, as well as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike, will also have significant impacts on the market.

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2.2k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2026.06.02

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