When Faith Becomes a Cage: The Sunk Cost Trap in the Crypto Era

深潮Published on 2025-12-12Last updated on 2025-12-12

Abstract

In the crypto era, the "sunk cost trap" describes how past investments—whether in skills, relationships, or digital assets—can become psychological prisons that prevent people from moving on, even when they know their current path is no longer beneficial. The author reflects on personal experiences in poker and crypto, noting how early beliefs in Bitcoin and smart contracts have now materialized (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption), yet many remain stuck due to emotional or financial commitments. The article categorizes crypto believers into four camps: Bitcoin-only (Green), crypto-but-not-Bitcoin (Red), both (Brown), and neither (White), each split into (a) those who still see upside and (b) those who don’t. Only true believers (e.g., Red (a)) should fully commit time and resources; others should diversify or plan exits. As crypto becomes mainstream (e.g., Robinhood using Arbitrum), opportunities may lie elsewhere (e.g., equities, AI). The key is to avoid mistaking sunk costs for future potential and to cultivate skills beyond crypto for a softer landing. Freedom requires courage to walk away from the "cave" of past investments.

Written by: Evanss6

Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

At any point in the past, this might have been good advice when talking about cryptocurrency: hoard Bitcoin, or at least mainstream coins, do some staking, try new products with rewards, trade contracts without getting liquidated—chances are you would have made money. Behind this are two core beliefs: Bitcoin will become a more mainstream non-sovereign store of value, and smart contracts will become the infrastructure of finance.

I won’t go into detail about how these judgments have been validated, because we need to talk about this "cage." Just two facts:

Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of $49 billion, Ethereum ETFs have seen inflows of $4.3 billion, and more altcoin ETFs are just getting started. Michael Saylor himself has bought over $40 billion, and many companies are gradually buying in.

Robinhood just announced that it will use Arbitrum's tech stack to build an EVM chain as the backend financial infrastructure for its platform, and will also list the most popular product in cryptocurrency: perpetual contracts.

Cryptocurrency is increasingly resembling traditional finance. It’s being bought by the previous generation in brokerage accounts, promoted by Larry Fink, and used by companies like Robinhood. What many of us imagined a decade ago is coming true.

So what exactly is the "sunk cost cage"?

Simply put, it’s sticking with something because of past investments. This can appear in many places: your skills, investments you still hold, your relationships, a job you’re afraid to quit, or spending all your time on cryptocurrency.

  • "I don’t want to leave her because our past is too deep."

  • "I don’t want to change careers because I’ve spent too much time on this."

  • "I don’t want to sell Ethereum because I bought it early, and it’s been good to me."

These are all sunk cost fallacies. Not realizing you’re thinking this way is a form of self-sabotage, making you continue doing things you know deep down are no longer beneficial.

The sunk cost cage is the modern version of Plato’s allegory of the cave.

The prisoners only know the shadows on the wall, unaware of where the shadows come from or that there’s a larger world outside.

In Plato’s allegory, the prisoners stay in the cave because they mistake the shadows for reality, unaware that there is a "more real" world outside. In the modern version, we stay not out of ignorance but because we’ve invested too much in the shadows. That job that no longer fits, the career you no longer believe in, the identity built on long hours and silent endurance—these are the costs paid. The more time, education, and reputation you’ve invested, the harder it is to leave. The illusion is no longer just external; it’s internalized as responsibility, logic, and "the reasonable thing to do."

But freedom isn’t cheap. Escaping the sunk cost cage means admitting that what you’ve built may no longer serve you. Past efforts cannot justify staying. Like the prisoner turning toward the light, this requires not only courage but also betraying the part of yourself that is overly loyal to your self-investment. The hardest part isn’t seeing the truth but saying goodbye to the self that stayed too long, believed too deeply, and paid the price for the cage.

My Experience

I stayed in the cage for a long time myself.

As a teenager, I fell in love with poker. In the back row of high school classes, I was always calculating bankroll expectations in my notebook, not listening to lectures or taking notes. Within two years, I went from micro-stakes ($0.01/$0.02) to high-stakes tables. Over time, I enjoyed playing less and less, seeing it only as a way to make money, always thinking, "I’ll quit in a couple of years."

But a decade passed, and nothing changed. I was still playing, still winning, but always felt the money wasn’t enough to "do something else." Worse, I didn’t even know what else I could do, and I saw clearly: poker is a declining game, and I had to work harder and harder to keep up. But I told myself I should continue because I’d spent so much time getting good, it paid better than other options, I had no other viable path, and no time to think—staying a consistent winner in high-stakes online games was exhausting enough: studying strategy, finding good games, avoiding cheaters and shady platforms...

Honestly, this "can’t easily switch careers because it makes money" is a luxurious problem. But as it became harder to find better games, I knew the days were numbered.

First Encounter with Cryptocurrency

I encountered cryptocurrency early through my previous career. In 2012, I first read about Bitcoin on a poker forum called TwoPlusTwo. Back then, the Bitcoin sub-section had been open for over a year.

The first reply was hilarious: "This thing is worth 70 cents now? A currency no one uses can reach this price, lol." The second reply said you could actually exchange it for dollars or buy pizza—this was the early use case of what later became a $2 trillion asset. Scrolling down a few more replies:

"Really missed an era." Anyway, I noticed it because some poker sites started using it. At the time, I thought its $2 billion market cap was outrageous. If it was for black/gray markets, maybe it was worth that; if it could go mainstream, its value would multiply endlessly.

By 2016-17, as my investments became substantial, I spent more and more time on cryptocurrency (especially ICOs). This diversion of time was my first step out of the cage. But it wasn’t until the rise of DeFi in 2020, when it actually became profitable, that I fully jumped in.

Back then, I knew nothing about trading and had to learn on the go. I studied economics and math in college, but my only real skill was poker. Fortunately, poker is excellent training for trading: it gives you ruthless real-time feedback on decisions, forces you to manage risk, price correctly, develop overall strategy, and builds emotional resilience and soft skills to endure bad runs—all essential for independent trading.

In the end, I’m grateful and lucky that I spent a lot of time from 2013-2019 exploring these curiosities, which put me in the best position when opportunity arose. If I’d focused more on poker those years, I might have played better, but following my intuition to create a transition/exit plan was truly fortunate.

How does this "cage" apply today?

In recent years, financial nihilism has become increasingly evident in the crypto space. More and more people no longer believe in the ideals that drew them in initially. The goal has become "making money," going all-in, grinding hard, and "exiting" once you’ve made enough.

Roughly, there are four camps:

  • Green Camp (believe in Bitcoin, not other cryptocurrencies)

  • Red Camp (believe in cryptocurrency, not Bitcoin)

  • Brown Camp (believe in both)

  • White Camp (believe in neither)

Add two scenarios to each camp, and it becomes eight types:

  • (a) Believe there is still upside, worth the risk

  • (b) Believe the upside has been taken by early buyers

I think only those in 2(a) should devote all their time to cryptocurrency. If you’re in 1(b), 2(b), 3(b), or 4(b), you’re better off starting to diversify your time and make an exit plan. If you’re in 1(a) or 4(a), just hold Bitcoin and don’t pay much attention to anything else. 3(a) can hold some Bitcoin and other assets, splitting time and energy between crypto and non-crypto. If you’ve seen my account and posts, you can probably tell that I, who was mostly in 2(a) from 2015-2023, am now somewhat oscillating between 1(a), 3(a), and 3(b).

Let’s talk about the Red Camp. It’s been painful here the past few years.

We’ve basically been in a situation where Bitcoin dominance keeps rising, even as the crypto system overall becomes more adopted. Even if you accurately predicted that Ethereum ETFs would see over $4 billion in net inflows, predicted that giants like Robinhood would use its technology, predicted that Trump would win, reform the SEC, end OCP2.0, and create a pro-crypto environment. From the day the ETFs launched, your Ethereum investment is still down. And today, Ethereum is around $2,600—2015 investors are up 2,000 to 8,600 times.

So the Answer

I doubt whether "enduring," as Mippo said in the tweet at the beginning of this article, is really the right path or the biggest opportunity. Everything you dreamed of has either already happened or is on its way. In 2017, if Robinhood announced building on Ethereum, the price would have jumped 10% immediately, but now it’s different. The move now is to buy HOOD stock. I believe there are still opportunities in crypto, but the trend of opportunities being captured by non-crypto assets (stocks) or insiders (teams/private investors—look at Celestia Finance) isn’t friendly to dreamers. If you really want to "endure," you need to invest early in these projects or build them yourself. So Mippo isn’t wrong; solving real problems in crypto is still an opportunity. But don’t assume that just because crypto technology is being adopted, current coin prices will necessarily rise (especially compared to other assets you could invest in).

Unless you’re a true Red Camp diehard 2(a), "enduring" is choosing to stay in the cave watching shadows on the wall while people outside are working on AI and robots.

You’d better ask yourself honestly: Which camp are you in? Do you even like cryptocurrency? Regardless, try to develop some skills that are useful elsewhere, so if it doesn’t work out, you have a fallback. At the very least, you won’t be unhappy spending all your time on something you’re already tired of. And if you’re wrong, you have a soft landing place.

The door of the sunk cost cage isn’t locked; what traps you is your own thoughts. All you need to do is open the door from time to time and walk out. Life is beautiful, and the world is full of possibilities.

Related Questions

QWhat is the 'sunk cost trap' in the context of the crypto era, as described in the article?

AThe 'sunk cost trap' refers to the tendency to persist with an endeavor, such as investing in or working within the cryptocurrency space, primarily because of the significant time, money, or effort already invested in the past, even when it may no longer be the best or most beneficial path forward.

QAccording to the author, what are the two core beliefs that underpinned the common crypto advice of 'HODLing' Bitcoin or major altcoins?

AThe two core beliefs were that Bitcoin would become a more mainstream non-sovereign store of value and that smart contracts would become the foundational infrastructure for finance.

QHow does the author relate the 'sunk cost trap' to Plato's Allegory of the Cave?

AThe author describes the 'sunk cost trap' as a modern version of the allegory. In the original, prisoners stay in the cave because they mistake shadows for reality. In the modern version, people stay (e.g., in a job or investment) not out of ignorance, but because they have invested too much in the 'shadows'—the past efforts, time, and identity built around that pursuit, making it difficult to leave.

QBased on the author's framework, which group of people should dedicate all their time to cryptocurrency?

AAccording to the author's framework, only those in group 2(a)—people who believe in crypto (but not Bitcoin) AND believe there is still significant upside potential and it's worth the risk—should put all their time into cryptocurrency.

QWhat advice does the author give to someone who might be in a 'sunk cost cage' within crypto?

AThe author advises individuals to honestly assess which of the four camps (Green, Red, Brown, White) and two sub-categories (a or b) they fall into. They should consider developing skills transferable outside of crypto to have a 'soft landing' and an exit plan. The key is to recognize that the cage door isn't locked and that one can choose to walk away from a path that is no longer fulfilling or beneficial.

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2.6k Total ViewsPublished 2025.12.05Updated 2025.12.05

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What is SHOPON

Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo): A Comprehensive Analysis of Real-World Asset Tokenization in Web3 This article delves into the Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), recognised by its ticker symbol $SHOPON, exploring its implications at the intersection of traditional finance and blockchain technology. As a part of Ondo Finance's tokenized securities platform, Shopify’s tokenized stock exemplifies advancements in democratizing access to global capital markets through innovative digital assets. Introduction and Overview of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), or $SHOPON, portrays a pivotal innovation in the realm of tokenized securities, allowing investors to gain economic exposure akin to directly owning shares of Shopify Inc. This token, developed under the umbrella of Ondo Finance, not only provides investors with the ability to hold digital representations of the company’s stock but also integrates features such as automatic reinvestment of dividends. This advancement represents a substantial shift in the landscape of decentralized finance (DeFi), linking conventional equity markets with blockchain solutions designed to enhance accessibility, transparency, and liquidity. By eliminating geographical barriers and enabling 24/7 trading capabilities, $SHOPON is positioned as a bridge connecting traditional financial instruments and the emerging Web3 ecosystem. What is Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), $SHOPON? The $SHOPON token serves as a digital manifestation of Shopify Inc.'s shares, engineered to provide a direct correlation to the underlying asset's performance. Through the utilization of blockchain technology, the token gives holders a mechanism to participate in the economic benefits associated with equity ownership, including capital appreciation and dividend distribution. The unique aspect of $SHOPON lies in its automatic dividend reinvestment mechanism, which allows returns to compound without necessitating active management by the investor. This feature inherently enhances its attractiveness as an investment vehicle, particularly for individuals seeking passive income growth alongside exposure to high-performing equities. The tokenization process is facilitated by the custody of actual Shopify shares through regulated intermediaries, ensuring that every $SHOPON token is verifiably backed by real equity. This structure empowers investors with the dual advantages of both traditional financial characteristics and the innovative benefits tied to blockchain technology. Who is the Creator of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo)? The creator of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), Nathan Allman, is an experienced figure in the finance sector, formerly associated with Goldman Sachs. His rich background includes significant expertise in digital asset development, bridging the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies. Allman’s educational journey, marked by studies at Brown University, provided him with a deep understanding of economics and biology, equipping him with analytical skills that inform his strategic vision. In 2021, he founded Ondo Finance, committing to developing tokenized securities that meet institutional-grade standards while leveraging blockchain's transformative capabilities. Under Allman's leadership, Ondo Finance has focused on creating compliant and innovative financial products that empower a diverse investor base. Who are the Investors of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo)? The investment landscape surrounding Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) is notably robust, underpinned by significant institutional support. Primarily, Pantera Capital stands out as a strategic partner through the Ondo Catalyst initiative, a $250 million commitment aimed at accelerating the development of on-chain capital markets. This partnership not only signifies institutional confidence in the potential of tokenized assets but also reinforces Ondo Finance's operational capabilities and market positioning. The funding pathways have included earlier rounds that amassed millions in seed funding and further structural investments, solidifying relationships with both venture capital firms and private investors. Moreover, the financial framework is complemented by strategic partnerships with established financial institutions and technology companies, enhancing Ondo’s infrastructure and operational expertise. How Does Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), $SHOPON Work? At the core of $SHOPON's operational framework is a sophisticated system integrating traditional finance mechanisms with blockchain technology. The custody of actual Shopify shares ensures that token holders retain authentic economic exposure, safeguarding their investments in line with recognized legal structures. The smart contracts employed in managing $SHOPON handle various functions, including automatic dividend reinvestment and ownership transfer, offering instant settlement and increased liquidity, marking a significant departure from conventional trading systems plagued by multi-day settlement delays. By providing interoperability with other decentralized finance applications, $SHOPON empowers holders with potentially lucrative opportunities for advanced investment strategies, including lending and automated market making. This complex integration presents a unique value proposition, catering to both traditional and crypto-native investors. The innovative structure of $SHOPON also allows for real-time settlements and transactions documented on the blockchain, delivering unparalleled transparency and security—a major advancement over standard equity trading practices. Timeline of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) March 2021: Nathan Allman establishes Ondo Finance, initially focusing on decentralized finance yield optimization. August 2021: Completion of a $4 million seed funding round led by Pantera Capital. January 2023: Launch of initial tokenized treasury security products, laying the groundwork for future equity tokenization. July 2025: Announcement of the Ondo Catalyst initiative, a strategic investment program valued at $250 million, aimed at propelling the development of tokenization in capital markets. September 3, 2025: Launch of Ondo Global Markets featuring over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, including $SHOPON. Technical Implementation and Blockchain Infrastructure Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) operates on a technical architectural framework that marries blockchain protocols with traditional financial custody arrangements. The ecosystem leverages Ethereum's smart contract capabilities, providing seamless transaction management while ensuring compliance with regulatory standards through established financial custodians. Central to this architecture are security measures and transparent transaction records that affirm the legitimacy of each tokenholder's economic stake. With automated features managed by intricate smart contracts, $SHOPON not only streamlines ownership transfers but also allows for the tactical reinvestment of dividends—a hallmark of modern investment strategies. Moreover, the incorporation of LayerZero technology facilitates cross-chain interoperability, making $SHOPON accessible across multiple blockchain environments while preserving its functional robustness. This forward-thinking technical design positions $SHOPON as an adaptable asset within the larger DeFi milieu. Regulatory Framework and Compliance Architecture $SHOPON's regulatory framework is built upon the meticulous navigation of existing financial regulations that govern securities. The custody arrangements for the underlying Shopify shares are managed by U.S.-regulated broker-dealers, ensuring compliance and protection for investors. By maintaining a separation between the blockchain tokenization process and traditional custody, $SHOPON adheres to legal requirements while offering innovative functionalities that challenge conventional constraints. This dual-layered compliance approach enhances investor confidence and underscores Ondo Finance's commitment to regulatory integrity. Notably, the availability of $SHOPON is tailored to international investors from regions such as Asia-Pacific, Europe, and Africa, as regulatory parameters in the U.S. and U.K. present challenges in accessing tokenized securities. Market Access and Global Distribution Strategy The distribution strategy of $SHOPON is keenly designed to optimize global access while conforming to regulatory standards. The platform aims to establish comprehensive coverage for eligible investors across multiple regions, effectively dismantling traditional barriers through the implementation of blockchain technology. Integration with various cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges also promotes user-friendliness and accessibility, establishing a streamlined experience for investors to manage their holdings. Moreover, the 24/7 trading capabilities afforded by the tokenized model allow participants to react promptly to market shifts, fundamentally transforming how global equities are accessed and traded. Technology Integration and Cross-Chain Functionality The remarkable technological underpinnings of $SHOPON propagate its multi-chain functionality, set to expand its reach beyond Ethereum to networks such as Solana and BNB Chain. Such cross-chain capabilities allow users flexibility when navigating between blockchains, concurrently leveraging distinct network attributes to optimize their trading experience. LayerZero serves as the backbone for ensuring decentralized transfers between networks while providing the requisite security and speed, quintessential for maintaining investor trust. This comprehensive interoperability illustrates $SHOPON's commitment to being a versatile, user-centric asset in the evolving investment landscape. Ecosystem Integration and DeFi Compatibility Incorporating $SHOPON into broader DeFi protocols signifies its potential beyond traditional stock ownership. Token holders can leverage their holdings for various sophisticated strategies and applications, enhancing investment returns and liquidity management. By establishing a presence in lending protocols and automated trading systems, $SHOPON effectively democratizes access to advanced financial strategies previously limited to institutional investors. Such integration contributes to a more competitive and dynamic financial landscape, where individual investors can capitalize on tools typically reserved for larger entities. Risk Management and Security Framework Security remains paramount in the operational infrastructure of $SHOPON. The tokenization framework employs multiple layers of protection—beginning with regulated custody of the underlying Shopify shares. The operational protocols establish rigorous auditing, key management, and transaction monitoring standards, thus safeguarding against potential vulnerabilities. Moreover, meticulous adherence to evolving regulatory requirements provides an extra layer of security, fortifying investor protections and institutional compliance. Market Impact and Industry Implications The introduction of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) heralds a transformative shift in how financial markets operate, emphasizing the potential of tokenized securities to reshape traditional investment paradigms. The successful integration of $SHOPON encapsulates the efficiencies inherent in blockchain technology and opens avenues for new user demographics previously barred from extensive market participation. The impact extends beyond the immediate benefits to token holders, indicating broader trends that may challenge the status quo of investment services, particularly in addressing geographic restrictions and operational costs typically associated with traditional brokerage platforms. Undeniably, $SHOPON encapsulates the potential for traditional institutions to innovate further, leveraging the increasing demand for seamless blockchain access to complement existing financial infrastructure. Future Development Roadmap and Strategic Vision As Ondo Finance looks forward, the trajectory of $SHOPON rests on ambitious goals aimed at broadening the spectrum of available tokenized assets significantly. Over the next few years, plans are in place to expand to more than 1,000 tokenized securities, further enhancing market participation and investment options for individuals worldwide. Continued integration with traditional financial actors, development of specialized institutional products, and enhancements in automated trading capabilities will ensure that $SHOPON maintains its position at the forefront of financial innovation. Regulatory collaboration will also remain a focal point, establishing a framework that not only supports the compliance requirements but also promotes a healthy environment for tokenized asset proliferation. Conclusion and Market Significance In summary, Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), represented by the ticker $SHOPON, is more than merely a tokenized equity offering; it embodies the innovation possible when traditional finance collides with modern blockchain applications. With a robust technical architecture, a commitment to compliance, and a clear strategic vision, $SHOPON exemplifies the potential for tokenized assets to enhance liquidity, accessibility, and functionality in capital markets. As the global investment landscape evolves, the transformative implications of $SHOPON extend beyond individual investors to revolutionize how financial instruments are perceived, traded, and utilized within both traditional and decentralized frameworks.

2.6k Total ViewsPublished 2025.12.05Updated 2025.12.05

What is SHOPON

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