Analysts at CryptoQuant believe that investors should not try to determine the exact bottom of Bitcoin. According to their data, the proportion of the first cryptocurrency's supply in profit has fallen to 51.4% — a level that historically corresponded to phases of capitulation and subsequent accumulation.
According to CryptoQuant, the share of Bitcoin supply in profit has rapidly decreased to 51.4%. Thus, about 48.6% of coins in circulation are in a state of unrealized loss.
The indicator is determined based on UTXO: analysts compare the price at which a coin last moved with its current market value. CryptoQuant noted that the indicator was last near 51% in early 2023 when Bitcoin traded in the $16,000-$20,000 range.
The current value also marks the lowest level of Bitcoin's overall profitability in more than three years.
Analysts Urged Not to Look for the 'Absolute Bottom'
According to CryptoQuant's assessment, the decline in the average cost basis of Bitcoin holders during a bear market reflects the transfer of coins from investors with high purchase prices to stronger holders.
Under such conditions, some participants realize losses, while long-term investors may use the decline for gradual accumulation.
'The idea of catching the absolute bottom is wrong,' CryptoQuant stated.
Analysts believe the window for accumulation may last longer than most market participants expect. At the same time, it is precisely during such periods that some investors exit the market due to fear of further decline. CryptoQuant also noted that historically, a drop in supply profitability below 55% has been associated with periods of re-accumulation.
Bottom in October
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten shared his own forecast regarding further market dynamics. According to him, the first cryptocurrency could form a bottom in October 2026, followed by a recovery to around $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving.
Klippsten drew attention to Bitcoin's historical cyclicality. Previous local lows of the asset formed approximately 12 months after bull market peaks.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $126,000 in early October 2025. Accordingly, October 2026 falls roughly 12 months after the peak.
At the same time, Klippsten cautioned against overly extrapolating past cycles, as there is a limited number of historical observations available for such a conclusion.
Earlier, analysts pointed to weak demand for Bitcoin and pressure from the United States.
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