Goldman Sachs Interprets "How Long Will the Iran War Last": Markets Have Only Priced in "Inflation," Not Yet "Recession"
Goldman Sachs warns that markets have only priced in the "inflation shock" from the Iran conflict but have completely ignored the severe risk of a global "recession." The key bottleneck is the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flow has dropped 97% to just 600,000 barrels per day. Military convoys can restore at most 20% of normal oil flow, and the conflict is likely to persist as Iran views it as an existential struggle.
Oil prices could surpass 2008 highs if disruptions last 60 days, with Brent potentially reaching $110/bbl in an extreme scenario. Every 10 oil price increase drags global GDP down by 0.1% and raises inflation by 0.2pp. A 60-day disruption could reduce global GDP by 0.9% and increase inflation by 1.7%.
Markets remain overly optimistic about a quick resolution. If prolonged, the focus will shift from inflation to recession: equities would sell off, cyclical assets like copper and the AUD would fall, front-end yields would reverse their hawkish repricing, and the JPY would emerge as the ultimate safe-haven currency. The crisis hinges on Hormuz reopening—not military outcomes—and the timeline is likely longer than priced in.
marsbit03/23 02:48
