# Kalshi Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Kalshi", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Trading Volume Soars 80-Fold: How Kalshi is Reshaping the Sports Prediction Market

Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market platform, has experienced explosive growth, with monthly trading volume surging 80x to $14.4 billion by March 2026. Sports markets drive this expansion, representing 68% of total activity. Analysis shows Kalshi's prices are highly efficient, with pre-game probabilities deviating only 5.5% from actual outcomes. While its peer-to-peer exchange model offers advantages over traditional sportsbooks—including nationwide availability and no betting limits—Kalshi faces challenges with higher effective fees (2.8-4.2%) and limited in-play liquidity. The platform's $22 billion valuation reflects its positioning as an exchange rather than a bookmaker, but maintaining this premium requires improving liquidity depth and managing competition from rivals like Polymarket and potential entrants from traditional sports betting.

marsbit2h ago

Trading Volume Soars 80-Fold: How Kalshi is Reshaping the Sports Prediction Market

marsbit2h ago

Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets Stuck at the Third Stage

Prediction markets are transitioning from niche platforms focused on elections and sports to mainstream financial tools, as highlighted at Kalshi Research's inaugural conference. While sports still dominate trading volume (around 80%), non-sports categories like macroeconomics, politics, and entertainment are growing faster, signaling a shift from entertainment-based trading to information and risk management tools. Institutions, including Wall Street firms, are increasingly using prediction markets for data reference (Stage 1 adoption), with some progressing to system integration (Stage 2). However, full-scale trading (Stage 3) is limited due to the lack of margin trading, requiring full collateral for positions—a barrier for leverage-dependent entities. Kalshi is working with regulators to introduce margin mechanisms. Key insights from participants like Goldman Sachs and CNBC emphasize the value of real-time pricing for events (e.g., Fed decisions, tariffs), providing benchmarks previously unavailable. The path to maturity mirrors historical financial instruments like options, with expectations that prediction markets will become institutional staples within five years. Political leaders, including Trump and Schumer, now cite Kalshi odds, underscoring its growing influence. The platform rewards domain expertise over traditional finance backgrounds, attracting diverse participants from fields like music and poker. Ultimately, prediction markets are evolving into critical infrastructure for pricing uncertainty.

marsbit2 days ago 02:27

Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets Stuck at the Third Stage

marsbit2 days ago 02:27

Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets Stuck at the Third Stage

Prediction markets are transitioning from niche platforms focused on elections and sports to mainstream tools for information and risk management. While events like the Super Bowl still dominate trading volume, non-sports categories—such as macroeconomics, politics, and entertainment—are growing faster and attracting institutional interest. Key drivers include the need for real-time benchmarks on uncertain events (e.g., election outcomes or policy changes), which traditional markets lack. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and CNBC are already using prediction market data for decision-making, though most remain in the early stages of adoption. The path to full institutional integration involves three phases: data integration, system compliance, and active trading. The current barrier to large-scale trading is the lack of margin trading, requiring full collateral for positions—a limitation platforms like Kalshi are working to address. Experts compare prediction markets to the early days of options trading, anticipating they will become a standard, if mundane, financial infrastructure. Political leaders and institutions are increasingly referencing these markets, signaling their growing credibility. The future lies in their evolution from speculative arenas to essential tools for hedging and pricing uncertainty.

Odaily星球日报2 days ago 02:22

Institutional Adoption of Prediction Markets Stuck at the Third Stage

Odaily星球日报2 days ago 02:22

Crypto Prediction Markets Continue To Be Under Siege — Are Traders Now Fair Game For Prosecutors?

U.S. federal regulators, including the CFTC and DOJ, are seeking a court order to prevent Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against crypto prediction-market platform Kalshi. They argue that contracts tied to sports, elections, and real-world events qualify as financial derivatives ("swaps") under federal law, not state-regulated gambling. This legal action is part of a broader conflict between federal and state authorities over jurisdiction on prediction markets. Arizona and other states contend these platforms constitute illegal gambling and have initiated criminal charges. Similar legal pressures are affecting Kalshi’s rival, Polymarket, which faces lawsuits and investigations in multiple states. The outcome could either legitimize and boost U.S. prediction markets or fragment them into riskier offshore operations.

bitcoinist04/09 18:02

Crypto Prediction Markets Continue To Be Under Siege — Are Traders Now Fair Game For Prosecutors?

bitcoinist04/09 18:02

U.S. court backs Kalshi, reinforcing CFTC’s push for federal control over prediction markets

A U.S. federal appeals court has ruled in favor of prediction market platform Kalshi, reinforcing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) position that event-based contracts qualify as federally regulated derivatives, not gambling. The Third Circuit upheld an injunction blocking New Jersey from applying state gambling laws to Kalshi, affirming that such contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act. This decision strengthens the CFTC's legal arguments against state-level crackdowns, supports the development of a unified national market, and may accelerate institutional adoption of prediction markets.

ambcrypto04/06 16:35

U.S. court backs Kalshi, reinforcing CFTC’s push for federal control over prediction markets

ambcrypto04/06 16:35

Crypto Prediction Markets Face Existential Threat — 3 States Move To Shut Traders Out

The U.S. federal government, through the CFTC and DOJ, is suing Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut to block their attempts to shut down crypto prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The federal agencies argue they have exclusive jurisdiction to regulate these markets as derivatives, while the states classify them as illegal gambling. This legal clash represents a significant existential threat to the industry. A federal victory would centralize oversight under the CFTC, creating a single regulatory framework. If the states prevail, platforms would face a fragmented landscape of state gambling laws, potentially pushing markets offshore and increasing costs for traders.

bitcoinist04/03 19:32

Crypto Prediction Markets Face Existential Threat — 3 States Move To Shut Traders Out

bitcoinist04/03 19:32

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

The competition between US-based prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket has intensified, with both companies exchanging sharp public criticisms. Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, launched an ad campaign in Washington, D.C., with slogans such as "We don’t do death markets," directly targeting Polymarket’s offshore operations and its controversial contracts related to military conflicts and sensitive events. Kalshi accused Polymarket of being "irresponsible, dangerous, and non-compliant," while Polymarket responded by calling for fact-based discussions and emphasizing its commitment to market integrity. The dispute highlights fundamental differences in their regulatory approaches and comes amid growing scrutiny over insider trading and ethical concerns in the prediction market industry, which has seen combined weekly volumes nearing $6 billion.

marsbit04/02 08:52

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

marsbit04/02 08:52

Paradigm Builds Its Own Prediction Market Trading Terminal, Also Considering Market Making and Index Products

Paradigm, a major crypto investment firm, is developing a dedicated trading terminal for prediction markets, targeting professional traders and market makers, according to anonymous sources. Led by partner Arjun Balaji since late 2025, the initiative aligns with growing institutional interest in prediction markets, where users speculate on events like elections or asset prices. The company is reportedly considering launching an internal market-making desk and exploring the creation of a prediction market index—similar to traditional indices like the S&P 500—by aggregating multiple prediction markets into a single tradable product. Paradigm has already begun compiling prediction market data into a public dashboard. Notably, Paradigm is a key investor in Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform it helped value at $22 billion, and insists the terminal does not compete with Kalshi’s core business. This move is part of Paradigm’s broader expansion beyond crypto into AI and robotics, evidenced by its ongoing efforts to raise a new $1.5 billion fund. The firm has a history of launching in-house projects, including the crypto software company Ithaca and Tempo, a stablecoin-focused blockchain developed with Stripe.

marsbit04/02 03:11

Paradigm Builds Its Own Prediction Market Trading Terminal, Also Considering Market Making and Index Products

marsbit04/02 03:11

NYSE Parent Firm ICE Finalizes $600M Investment In Polymarket — Details

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent company of the NYSE, has finalized a $600 million direct cash investment in prediction market platform Polymarket. This is part of ICE's earlier commitment to invest up to $2 billion, bringing its total investment to $1.6 billion so far. The move signals strong institutional validation for the prediction markets industry, which is growing despite regulatory challenges. Polymarket and its competitors, like Kalshi, have faced bans in nearly a dozen U.S. states and increased scrutiny over insider trading. In response, Polymarket has updated its rules to explicitly prohibit trading on confidential information to ensure market integrity and transparency.

bitcoinist03/29 08:43

NYSE Parent Firm ICE Finalizes $600M Investment In Polymarket — Details

bitcoinist03/29 08:43

Is Washington About To Kill Crypto Prediction Markets For Good? — Why Congress Suddenly Cares

On March 25, two separate acts were introduced to ban U.S. congressional staff, members of Congress, and federal officials from trading on prediction markets. Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts issued an immediate office-wide ban, calling these markets “playgrounds for corrupt insiders” that create perverse incentives. Separately, Representatives Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski introduced the bipartisan PREDICT Act, which would prohibit elected officials, senior appointees, and their families from trading on political and policy outcome markets. Violators would face a 10% fine on the value of the trade and forfeiture of profits. The moves reflect growing concern in Washington over insider trading risks in prediction markets, especially following instances of traders making large profits on geopolitical events. These actions may lead to stricter regulations and increased scrutiny on crypto-based prediction platforms.

bitcoinist03/26 15:38

Is Washington About To Kill Crypto Prediction Markets For Good? — Why Congress Suddenly Cares

bitcoinist03/26 15:38

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