Spot Bitcoin ETFs record $450M inflows in ‘early positioning’ push

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-18Last updated on 2025-12-18

Abstract

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $457 million in net inflows on Wednesday, the highest single-day intake in over a month. Fidelity’s FBTC led with $391 million, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT with $111 million. Cumulative net inflows now exceed $57 billion, with total assets surpassing $112 billion. Analysts suggest the rebound reflects early macro positioning amid expectations of lower interest rates, as signaled by potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. However, Bitcoin faces resistance due to a large supply cluster between $93,000–$120,000, with 6.7 million BTC currently held at a loss. Market demand remains fragile, and price stability may depend on absorbing sellers above $95,000 or new liquidity entering the market.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $457 million in net inflows on Wednesday, marking their strongest single-day intake in more than a month as institutional demand showed signs of re-acceleration.

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the inflows, recording the largest daily intake at roughly $391 million, accounting for the majority of the day’s net inflows. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) followed with around $111 million, according to data from Farside Investors.

The inflows lifted cumulative net inflows for US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs to more than $57 billion, while total net assets climbed above $112 billion, equivalent to around 6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.

The rebound followed a choppy stretch in November and early December, when flows alternated between modest inflows and sharp outflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs last saw inflows above $450 million on Nov. 11, when funds pulled in roughly $524 million in a single day.

*Last time spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of over $450 million was on Nov. 11. Source:* *Farside Investors*

Related: Crypto ETPs to enter ‘cheesecake factory’ era in 2026: Bitwise

Bitcoin ETF inflows show early macro positioning

Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, said the renewed interest appears to reflect early positioning rather than late-cycle enthusiasm. “ETF inflows feel like early positioning,” Liu said. “As rate expectations soften, BTC becomes a clean liquidity trade again. Politics sets the mood, but capital moves on macro.”

However, Liu cautioned that while momentum could continue, it is unlikely to be smooth. “Momentum likely holds, but expect it to be uneven,” he said. “Flows will track liquidity and price action. As long as BTC remains a clean macro expression, ETFs stay the path of least resistance.”

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said he plans to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair who strongly supports cutting interest rates. Speaking during a national address marking the first year of his second term, Trump said he would announce a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell early next year, adding that all known finalists favor lower rates than current levels. Lower rates are usually considered bullish for risk assets like crypto.

Related: Spot Bitcoin ETFs see $358M outflow: Are investors really abandoning BTC?

Around 6.7 million BTC sitting at a loss

Bitcoin has returned to price levels last seen nearly a year ago, leaving behind a dense supply cluster between $93,000 and $120,000 that continues to cap recovery attempts. This top-heavy structure has pushed the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss to 6.7 million BTC, the highest level of the current cycle, according to Glassnode.

The report said demand remains fragile across both spot and derivatives markets. Spot buying has been selective and short-lived, corporate treasury flows episodic, and futures positioning continues to de-risk rather than rebuild conviction. Until sellers are absorbed above $95,000 or fresh liquidity enters the market, Bitcoin is likely to remain caught between structural support near $81,000, per Glassnode.

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The Largest IPO in History Ignites Heated Debate: Is SpaceX Worth $1.77 Trillion?

SpaceX's potential IPO is priced at $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion and valuing the company at approximately $1.77 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO in history. This valuation has sparked intense debate among investors. Bullish analysts, including major underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, argue the valuation is justified by SpaceX's long-term potential. They see it not just as a rocket company but as a future leader in space infrastructure, with key growth drivers being Starlink satellite internet, low-cost rocket launches, and future AI-related ventures. They project revenues reaching hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars by 2030-2040. ARK Invest's model suggests a 2030 enterprise value could reach $2.5 trillion. Bearish analysts from independent research firms like Morningstar, PitchBook, and New Constructs contend the IPO price is excessively high, already pricing in unrealistic future growth. Using DCF and sum-of-the-parts models, they estimate fair value between $780 billion and $1.7 trillion, significantly below the IPO target. They highlight risks such as the speculative nature of AI projections, over-dependence on Elon Musk, high growth expectations, and corporate governance concerns. Trefis set a target price of just $79 per share. While both sides acknowledge SpaceX's unique position in commercial space, the core disagreement centers on whether the $135 share price offers a reasonable margin of safety or is overly optimistic. Despite the valuation controversy, reported strong demand for the IPO indicates significant market interest.

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The Largest IPO in History Ignites Heated Debate: Is SpaceX Worth $1.77 Trillion?

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Japan’s Largest Banks Eye FY2026 Stablecoin Rollout Amid Regulatory Push

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Japan’s Largest Banks Eye FY2026 Stablecoin Rollout Amid Regulatory Push

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After the Passage of the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, What Is the Correct Architecture for On-Chain Yield?

The article discusses the evolution of on-chain credit, distinguishing three markets: overcollateralized crypto lending, unsecured lending (largely unsuccessful), and asset-backed credit (ABC). ABC, backed by identifiable real-world collateral with legal recourse, is identified as the fastest-growing category and the only one credibly addressing adverse selection—the core problem in credit where the riskiest borrowers self-select. Current growth in on-chain Real World Assets (RWAs), particularly tokenized private credit funds (e.g., Maple Finance, Centrifuge), is substantial but often merely "wraps" existing fund structures, inheriting their risks rather than solving adverse selection at the protocol level. The regulatory landscape is a key driver, with the US GENIUS Act (prohibiting stablecoin issuers from paying yield) and the proposed CLARITY Act (closing loopholes on indirect yield) set to redefine permissible yield-bearing products. This makes vaults (like ERC-4626) the critical architecture—they become the primary compliant vehicle for delivering yield, functioning as issuance, disclosure, distribution, and recovery mechanisms. The author's thesis is that the correct post-GENIUS/CLARITY architecture involves building ABC solutions where credit assessment, structure, and recovery are encoded directly into the smart contract vault layer, moving beyond mere tokenized fund wrappers to solve adverse selection fundamentally and ensure regulatory compliance.

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TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: Anthropic's New Model Fable Sparks Controversy by Restricting Biosafety Research, US CPI Soars to 4.2%, a Three-Year High

**Summary of TechFlow Intelligence Report:** The newsletter covers several key tech and finance developments. In AI, Anthropic's new Fable model faced backlash for secretly limiting biomedical research capabilities and enforcing a 30-day data retention policy, prompting the company to promise more transparent adjustments. In a related story, Anthropic's founder revealed his departure from OpenAI was due to dishonesty from Sam Altman, not safety concerns. Meanwhile, OpenAI is considering significant price cuts to compete with Anthropic, potentially sparking a price war. In crypto/Web3, BlackRock filed a new amendment for a yield-generating Bitcoin ETF, while Bank of America's CEO warned that stablecoin yields could drain trillions from traditional banks. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis advocated for the U.S. to officially accumulate Bitcoin reserves. In hardware, Nvidia released the DiffusionGemma-2-6B image model optimized for efficient inference, and AMD promoted its unified memory architecture to challenge Nvidia's dominance. TSMC's CFO hinted at possible price increases due to soaring AI chip demand. A major legal ruling in Germany held Google legally responsible for inaccurate information generated by its AI Overviews feature. Google Chrome also moved to fully block ad-blocker workarounds like uBlock Origin. Macroeconomic headlines included U.S. CPI rising to 4.2% (a 3-year high) and Iran's complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising oil price and inflation fears. South Korean markets saw continued volatility with massive foreign capital outflow. Other notable stories: Microsoft expanded its Copilot AI assistant "Mico" globally; a study found r/wallstreetbets users' stock picks outperformed Wall Street; a fully autonomous drone killed a human soldier for the first time, raising AI ethics concerns; and a Chinese hospital used brain-computer interface technology to help a blind person "see." The overarching theme connects debates over AI boundaries and responsibility (Anthropic's restrictions, Google's liability, lethal autonomous drones) with real-world economic and geopolitical turmoil (inflation, Strait of Hormuz closure, market instability), highlighting the tense interplay between technological advancement and global chaos.

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Alibaba's Yet Another New Business Division: What Signal Does It Send?

Alibaba has established a new "Token Foundry" business unit, merging its Tongyi large model division and Future Life Lab. Led directly by Group CEO Wu Yongming, this marks the company's third significant AI organizational reshuffle in 2026, following the creation of the Alibaba Token Hub (ATH) and a Group Technology Committee. The move signals a strategic shift from consolidating AI resources to accelerating productization and commercialization. The "Token Foundry" name reflects Alibaba's ambition to become a foundational supplier in the AI era, focusing on model development and commercial application. Key teams, including those behind the high-performing HappyHorse video generation model, have been integrated into the new unit. Concurrently, Zhou Jingren, architect of the Qwen model series, has been appointed Group Chief Scientist to lead a new AI Future Research Institute, focusing on long-term technological breakthroughs like Agent capabilities. This restructuring creates a clear four-layer AI architecture within Alibaba: the research institute for frontier exploration, Token Foundry for core models and commercialization, MaaS for platform services, and business units like Qianwen (C端) and Wukong (B端) for end-user applications. The adjustments align with a global trend among tech giants like Google and Microsoft to centralize AI leadership under the CEO and deeply integrate research with business units. The urgency is driven by a narrowing competitive window. Alibaba has announced its AI business is now entering a commercialization phase, with AI-related revenue seeing triple-digit growth for eleven consecutive quarters. The company faces intense competition in the MaaS (Model-as-a-Service) sector from rivals like ByteDance and Tencent. The Token Foundry initiative represents Alibaba's effort to streamline execution and enhance competitiveness in this critical, fast-evolving landscape.

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