ONDO: Will the $840M token unlock trigger a supply shock?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-06Last updated on 2026-01-06

Abstract

ONDO Finance is facing a significant token unlock event on January 18th, with 1.9 billion ONDO tokens (worth approximately $840 million) set to be released. This represents over 57% of the circulating supply and poses a major test for the token's market stability. The tokens will be distributed to founders, team members, private investors, and community pools. Unlocks involving team members and early investors often create higher sell pressure, as these groups may look to realize gains. Despite a rise in Open Interest to $77 million and positive funding rates indicating a cautiously long market sentiment, the large unlock could amplify price movements in either direction. If spot demand is insufficient to absorb the new supply, it could trigger rapid selling and increased volatility. Additionally, ONDO’s unlock is part of a broader January supply event, with over $5.5 billion in tokens scheduled to enter circulation across various cryptocurrencies, including Bitget (BGB) and Hyperliquid (HYPE). The market's ability to handle this influx of supply will soon be tested.

Ondo Finance [ONDO] is heading into a big month, with 1.9 billion tokens scheduled to unlock. Token releases don’t move prices alone, but they still check the overall market mood.

For ONDO, it’s about who owns the tokens, how they acted before, and if buying demand can handle the supply that’s coming.

A supply shock is arriving!

On the 18th of January, roughly 1.9 billion ONDO tokens (worth over $840 million at current prices) are set to unlock, according to Tokenomist data.

This accounts for over 57% of the released supply, making it a big test for the market.

Source: The Tokenomist

The tokens will be allocated to founders, team members, community pools, and private investors, groups that often operate with very different incentives.

Team-heavy unlocks tend to create more sell pressure than ecosystem-focused releases. This is because early holders look to realize gains.

The focus will be on how much of this supply the market can realistically absorb.

Derivatives lean long, but cautiously

At press time, ONDO’s Open Interest (OI) has gone up to $77 million, so positioning has built up ahead of the unlock. At the same time, Funding Rates were positive.

Therefore, traders were leaning long without aggressive leverage.

Source: Coinalyze

High OI into a major unlock can amplify moves in any direction. If spot demand holds, long positions may stay. But if selling pressure picks up, crowded trades can unwind quickly.

Beyond ONDO…

ONDO’s unlock is part of a much larger January supply event.

More than $5.5 billion in tokens are set to enter circulation this month, with ONDO, Bitget [BGB], Hyperliquid [HYPE], and Official Trump [TRUMP] making up the largest releases.

Around $2.5 billion will arrive through cliff unlocks, hitting the market all at once, while another $3 billion will be released gradually.

After ONDO, BGB will unlock nearly $500 million in tokens later this month, mostly for team and promotions. HYPE has a smaller but closer release, with tokens worth $327 million.

How much new supply can the market absorb at once? We’ll find out soon enough!

Final Thoughts

  • ONDO faces a test as $840 million worth of tokens hit the market on the 18th.
  • Price direction now depends on whether real demand can absorb a 57% supply unlock without panic selling.
Next: Chainlink: Assessing impact of $10.9M whale move on LINK price
Share
  • Share
  • Tweet

Related Questions

QWhat is the total value and number of ONDO tokens set to unlock on January 18th?

A1.9 billion ONDO tokens, worth over $840 million at current prices, are scheduled to unlock on January 18th.

QWhich groups will receive the unlocked ONDO tokens?

AThe unlocked tokens will be allocated to founders, team members, community pools, and private investors.

QWhat percentage of ONDO's released supply does this unlock represent?

AThis unlock accounts for over 57% of ONDO's released supply.

QWhat was ONDO's Open Interest (OI) and Funding Rate status ahead of the unlock?

AAt press time, ONDO's Open Interest was $77 million with positive Funding Rates, indicating traders were leaning long without aggressive leverage.

QWhich other major tokens have significant unlocks scheduled for January besides ONDO?

ABesides ONDO, Bitget [BGB] will unlock nearly $500 million, Hyperliquid [HYPE] will unlock $327 million, and Official Trump [TRUMP] is also among the largest January releases.

Related Reads

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

**Summary: The Value Distribution of Stablecoins** The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from mere trading tools into broader channels for dollar access. It divides the stablecoin ecosystem into four layers to analyze how value is distributed: 1. **Issuance Layer:** Mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the spread between reserve yield and user costs (e.g., Tether, Circle). This layer currently earns the largest profit margin. 2. **Infrastructure Layer:** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and asset management (e.g., Bridge, BVNK). This is the "unglamorous" but critical work, building the essential bridges between crypto and real-world finance. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer:** Integrates stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and provides enterprise financial software (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase). They act as the access point for businesses. 4. **Application Layer:** The end-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlements, or as a store of value. They benefit from convenience but have little pricing power. The core thesis is that while the issuance layer currently dominates profits, the often-overlooked **infrastructure layer holds significant long-term potential**. The real challenge and barrier to mass adoption is not the on-chain transfer of stablecoins (which is simple), but the complex "last mile" integration into existing business workflows, banking systems, and regulatory frameworks across different countries. Companies in this layer are currently in a "land grab" phase, investing heavily to build networks, secure bank partnerships, and establish compliance pathways. While their position is currently pressured by the profitable issuers above and distribution platforms below, the article suggests that if stablecoins become a default financial rail for businesses, the infrastructure providers who have done the hard work of integration will ultimately gain strong pricing power and become entrenched, essential players.

marsbit2h ago

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

marsbit2h ago

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from a mere trading tool into a broad "dollar channel." It analyzes the industry's value chain through four layers: 1. **Issuance Layer (e.g., Tether, Circle):** The top layer that mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the thickest interest rate spread. 2. **Infrastructure Layer (e.g., Bridge, BVNK):** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling critical but complex "dirty work" like fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and cross-border settlement. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase):** Embeds stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and integrates with enterprise software. 4. **Application Layer:** End-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlement, or storing value. The author posits that while the issuance layer currently captures the most profit, the most overlooked and potentially critical layer is infrastructure. The core challenge for stablecoin adoption isn't the on-chain transfer (which is simple), but bridging the gap between blockchain and the real-world financial system. This involves solving practical problems for businesses: fiat conversion, reconciliation, tax handling, and user onboarding. Infrastructure companies are currently in a difficult "land-grab" phase—building networks, securing banking relationships, and achieving compliance country-by-country. They face pressure from both the profitable issuance layer above and distribution platforms below. However, the author suggests this layer is building a crucial moat. Once stablecoins become a default business rail, the infrastructure players who have done the hard work of integration may gain significant, durable value and pricing power.

链捕手2h ago

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

链捕手2h ago

Why Is Nvidia Borrowing $20 Billion When It's Not Short of Cash?

Nvidia's recent announcement to issue at least $20 billion in senior notes, despite holding a strong cash position with over $48.6 billion in free cash flow last quarter, is not a sign of financial need. Instead, it represents a strategic move to leverage its high credit rating (recently upgraded to AA by S&P) to secure low-cost, long-term debt. This capital will support long-term AI infrastructure investments, data centers, R&D, supply chain prepayments, and strategic investments, while allowing the company to continue aggressive shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends. The decision reflects a mature capital management strategy: using debt to finance long-term growth assets is more efficient and less dilutive to shareholders than equity financing. It signals that Nvidia, like other tech giants (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon), is entering a new phase of heavy AI capital expenditure, shifting from a pure growth story to a story about capital allocation, credit strength, and long-term ecosystem positioning. The key question for investors is whether Nvidia can maintain its high cash flow generation and ensure that returns from these AI investments justify the cost of capital over the long term. The bond issuance amplifies its expansion capabilities but also ties its valuation more closely to the broader AI investment cycle's sustainability and profitability.

marsbit2h ago

Why Is Nvidia Borrowing $20 Billion When It's Not Short of Cash?

marsbit2h ago

Liberland Fires Tech Secretary After Alleged Blockchain And Website Takeover Attempt

Liberland's congress has voted to remove Technology Secretary Dorian Stern Vukotić, following a resolution accusing him of attempting to hijack the Liberland.org domain, removing administrative multisig protections, blocking the president from voting, and launching unauthorized tokens. The incident serves as a case study in blockchain governance, highlighting risks that go beyond smart contracts to include control over domains, admin keys, and off-chain authority. For the crypto industry, it underscores the need to scrutinize decentralization claims against operational realities, where a small group can still compromise governance. The story reflects a broader market shift where infrastructure security and governance are becoming as critical as price action. Editorial framing should treat the development as a verified information signal about governance risks, avoiding overstatement of Liberland's legal status and leaving room for follow-up evidence.

bitcoinist3h ago

Liberland Fires Tech Secretary After Alleged Blockchain And Website Takeover Attempt

bitcoinist3h ago

How to Do Research Well: Deliberately Practice the Real Skills That Matter

No one truly teaches you how to do research. You're often given a desk, a pre-selected problem, and vague instructions to "create something new." Consequently, many people reverse-engineer the job based on visible outputs—papers, posts, announcements—learning only how to *appear* like a researcher rather than how to *become* one. True research capability is built from stacking small, trainable skills, nearly all of which can be developed through deliberate practice. **Pick Your Own Problem:** Most researchers absorb problems from advisors or trends, lacking the underlying reasoning. Choosing a problem you genuinely care about, as John Schulman advises, leads to original work. Develop "taste" like a muscle: predict experiment outcomes, guess paper results from methods, and track which findings remain important over time. **Upgrade Your Inputs:** Relying on shared reading lists (arXiv hot lists, filtered group chats) leads to unoriginal conclusions. Undervalued old literature often holds crucial insights (e.g., MoE, LSTM, backpropagation). Richard Sutton's "The Bitter Lesson" or Claude Shannon's 1952 talk on creative thinking are more predictive than lengthy modern surveys. Breadth matters as much as depth: draw from neuroscience, mechanism design, hardware knowledge, and honest statistics. Read papers directly, especially appendices and limitations sections. **Write Everything Down:** As Paul Graham noted, writing exposes flaws in seemingly mature ideas. Writing is the cheapest defense against self-deception. Following Feynman's principle, Darwin programmatically wrote down facts contradicting his theory to combat memory bias. Maintain a detailed log of hypotheses, setups, predictions, results, and updated understandings. Reviewing past logs fosters essential humility.

marsbit4h ago

How to Do Research Well: Deliberately Practice the Real Skills That Matter

marsbit4h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

How to Buy ONDO

Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing OndoFinance (ONDO) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy OndoFinance (ONDO) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your OndoFinance (ONDO)After purchasing your OndoFinance (ONDO), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade OndoFinance (ONDO)Easily trade OndoFinance (ONDO) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

5.0k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2026.06.02

How to Buy ONDO

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of ONDO (ONDO) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions