From Tom Lee's various interviews, we can roughly summarize his core logic for being long-term bullish on Ethereum:
1. Ethereum is the core settlement layer for the future financial infrastructure.
ETH is not only a digital currency but also the infrastructure for building and operating DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, on-chain markets, RWA, and more. Especially in terms of RWA, this will be the biggest narrative in the future. Wall Street is tokenizing trillions of dollars in assets (bonds/stocks, etc.) on Ethereum. As the dominant settlement layer, Ethereum will generate massive demand and drive up the value of ETH. Tokenization is not short-term hype but a structural shift that will drive an ETH bull market independent of BTC.
2. Institutional adoption and ecosystem maturity.
Currently, there are about 4 million BTC wallets worldwide holding over $10,000 in assets, while globally, nearly 900 million stock/pension accounts hold similar amounts—a gap of over 200 times. In comparison, crypto adoption is still in its early stages; Ethereum has the strongest developer community; and the Ethereum network operates most robustly.
Additionally, unlike BTC, ETH has practical utility, such as staking rewards and DeFi, making it more suitable for long-term institutional holding.
3. Non-consensus opportunities.
Tom Lee has always favored "non-consensus" investments (he made 100x returns on telecom stocks in the 90s when he was young). Currently, many OGs (early players) find crypto "boring" and are turning to AI or stocks, but this is precisely because the industry has matured while still being in its infancy—a new wave of investors is about to flood in.
4. Not just talk, but action.
BitMine (BMNR) is the world's largest ETH treasury company, with Tom Lee as its chairman. BitMine already holds approximately 3.86 million ETH (about 3.2% of the total supply), with a target of reaching 5%. As of December 2025, BitMine continues to buy ETH heavily (despite price fluctuations) and has $1 billion in cash reserves plus staking收益.
(Note: 3.2% is already a lot, 5% is slightly more.)
Tom Lee's price predictions (this part should not be taken too seriously, as price prediction is God's work):
• Most "crazy" long-term target: If the ETH/BTC ratio returns to 0.25, ETH could reach $62,000 (extreme scenario, based on a super cycle).
• More realistic 2026 target: $7,000–$9,000 (2026), or even $20,000 (if tokenization explodes).
• He believes ETH will bottom by the end of 2025/early 2026. There may be short-term fluctuations, but 2026 will be a "big year" for L1 chains (especially ETH).
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