Bitcoin and Ethereum, finishing July on a positive note, entered August with historically weak performance. Previous monthly results suggest that the possibility of a negative August close for both cryptocurrencies cannot be ruled out.
In July, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, gaining 18.5%, while Bitcoin rose by 7%. Thus, the monthly return of $ETH was approximately 11.5 percentage points higher than that of Bitcoin.
However, Ethereum's August performance since 2016 presents a more mixed picture. Out of 10 Augusts reviewed, $ETH ended 4 with gains, while declines were observed in 6 periods.
The strongest growth for Ethereum in August was recorded in 2017, when $ETH surged by 92.86%. The sharpest drop occurred in 2018, when Ethereum lost 34.79% of its value in a month.
The average return for Ethereum in August since 2016 is 6.74 percent. However, the median return of -1.74 percent suggests that the positive average is largely driven by a few periods of strong growth, such as the extraordinary spike in 2017.
Bitcoin's historical August performance also doesn't provide a clear bullish signal for investors. According to data, Bitcoin's average August return is 1.06 percent, while its median return is -6.99 percent.
Although Bitcoin's average return has remained somewhat positive, the negative median data indicates that losing closes are more common in August. Recently, Bitcoin has also shown volatility in August. In August 2025, the asset increased by 8.13%; in 2024, it grew by 2.95%; and in 2023, it declined by 4.02%.
While historical data shows that the average returns for Bitcoin and Ethereum in August were positive, it's noteworthy that the median returns were negative. This suggests that strong rallies push the averages up, but a more typical August could lead to a higher probability of negative returns.
*This is not investment advice.
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