Elon Musk's 'Granny Drain'

marsbitPublished on 2026-05-28Last updated on 2026-05-28

Abstract

Title: Musk "Milking the Old Folks" Author: Nancy, PANews As the memory sector surges with Micron and SK Hynix each surpassing a trillion-dollar market cap, Elon Musk is accelerating his own myth of becoming the world's first trillionaire. SpaceX, with its astronomical valuation, is speeding toward the capital markets. This potentially wealth-history-rewriting super IPO is pushing Musk toward that unprecedented personal fortune and delivering hundredfold or even thousandfold returns to early backers like Google, Valor Equity Partners, Founders Fund, and others. However, to sustain this most expensive space narrative in human history, new buyers are ultimately needed. As massive pension funds are set to be "forced to buy," the retirement savings of Americans are becoming the fuel for Musk's space dreams. Wall Street has begun paving a fast track for such super IPOs. Major indices like Nasdaq and S&P have recently eased rules, allowing mega-companies like SpaceX to be incorporated into key benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 much faster post-listing. This matters because a vast portion of the U.S. retirement system—trillions in 401(k)s and pension funds—relies on passive index investing. Once a company enters a major index, all funds tracking it are compelled to buy its shares automatically, regardless of valuation, profitability, or risk. This has sparked significant backlash. Teacher unions and major public pension funds (collectively managing trillions) have warned the SEC ...

Author: Nancy, PANews

While the storage sector is going crazy, with Micron and SK Hynix both surpassing the trillion-dollar market capitalization mark, Elon Musk is personally accelerating the myth of creating a trillion-dollar fortune.

SpaceX, with its sky-high valuation, is accelerating towards the capital market. This super IPO, which may rewrite wealth history, is pushing Musk towards becoming the world's first trillionaire, while also delivering astounding returns of hundreds or even thousands of times to early allies.

However, for humanity's most expensive space narrative to continue, new buyers are ultimately needed. As massive pension funds will be 'forced to buy in,' Americans' retirement savings become the fuel for Musk's space dream.

Elon Musk is making American retirees 'pay up.'

Countdown to History's Largest IPO, Early Allies Reap Huge Profits

Wall Street has been waiting for SpaceX's IPO for many years.

Over the past decade, the company has grown from a startup valued at just $27 million into today's super unicorn valued at nearly $1.75 to $2 trillion, becoming one of the world's highest-valued private companies.

Now, this super IPO is finally set to list as early as June 12. This is not only the largest IPO event in human history but also means the wealth feast is entering its cash-out moment. Musk's long-term followers have finally waited for substantial returns.

For example, Google, through early investment, may become the biggest external winner. As of the end of 2025, it holds about 6.11% of SpaceX shares. An investment of just $900 million back then is now worth close to $120 billion; Valor Equity Partners, as a major shareholder second only to Musk, holds over 500 million SpaceX Class A shares, with equity value ranging roughly between $90 billion and $140 billion; Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, through multiple rounds of follow-on investments, holds about 3.5% of the shares, with paper gains exceeding $60 billion; Fidelity, as a major institutional investor in a 2015 co-investment round, holds shares worth about $35 billion; even Sequoia Capital, which entered relatively late, sees considerable returns, expected to be over $20 billion.

As for Musk himself, he is also poised to become the world's first trillion-dollar billionaire.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warns in a recent report that once super IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI materialize, the weight of tech stocks in equity benchmark indices could easily surpass about 48%, exceeding the market concentration levels of all major bubble periods in history such as the 'Roaring Twenties' of the 1920s, the 'Nifty Fifty' of the 1970s, the Japanese bubble of the 1980s, and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s.

However, who will ultimately take on such a massive valuation?

To reduce selling pressure after listing and maintain stock price stability, SpaceX has made some adjustments. For instance, insider shares will use a phased unlocking mechanism instead of the traditional unified 6-month lock-up period common in IPOs. Additionally, the company approved a 5-for-1 stock split for common shares to lower the psychological barrier for retail investors and enhance liquidity. Musk has also publicly stated that he will not sell any SpaceX shares.

But market concerns haven't disappeared. Putting aside the uncertainty of the grand Mars narrative and looking just at financial data, SpaceX remains a fast-burning company. The prospectus shows that in the first quarter of 2026 alone, SpaceX's net loss was nearly $4.3 billion, almost equivalent to the full-year loss of the previous year. Meanwhile, Musk controls an absolute 85% of the voting rights, meaning the board can hardly fire him, and external shareholders can almost never push through any major business decisions.

To some extent, SpaceX is a highly Musk-ified company. Its valuation, governance, and future expectations are deeply tied to Musk personally.

After all early investors have made a fortune, who is still willing to buy this already outrageously expensive space ticket at a high price?

Wall Street Paves an Index Fast Lane, U.S. Pensions Become the 'Bag Holders'

Americans' retirement savings may become the potential fuel for Musk's space dream.

Wall Street has already started opening express lanes for super IPOs. On May 1 this year, new Nasdaq rules officially took effect. Newly listed companies ranking in the top 40 of the Nasdaq-100 index by market cap can be included in the index after just 15 trading days, compared to the usual wait of about three months previously.

S&P also launched a consultation in May, proposing to shorten the minimum listing time required for inclusion from 12 months to 6 months and considering exempting extremely large companies from profitability requirements. FTSE Russell similarly relaxed restrictions, allowing large IPOs to be assessed for inclusion in the Russell U.S. Equity Indexes (including Russell 1000, Top 200, etc.) as early as the 5th trading day after listing, without waiting for quarterly reviews.

Major U.S. indices quietly relaxing rules is undoubtedly paving a dedicated runway for SpaceX.

According to Business Insider disclosures, after SpaceX goes public, it may quickly enter mainstream indices and ETFs. The speed of passive fund allocation could far exceed that of previous large IPOs. For example, the CRSP indices tracked by Vanguard's VTI and Growth ETF VUG could include SpaceX as early as 5 trading days post-listing; the Nasdaq-100 index tracked by QQQ could include SpaceX after 15 trading days; and the S&P 500 index tracked by SPY might include SpaceX in 2027 after rule changes, among others.

Within the U.S. retirement system, a vast number of 401(k) plans, pension funds, and long-term savings accounts employ passive index investment strategies. Funds typically automatically allocate assets according to index constituents and their market cap weightings.

This strategy originated from the first index fund for ordinary investors launched in 1976 by index fund pioneer John Bogle. The core philosophy is to 'replicate the market, not beat it.' With extremely low management fees and high diversification, it became the preferred allocation method for pensions and 401(k) accounts. To date, total U.S. retirement assets exceed $49 trillion.

This means that once SpaceX is included in an index, all funds tracking that benchmark, without analyzing valuation, judging bubbles, or even caring if the company is profitable, are forced to buy according to the weight.

However, this game has sparked strong dissatisfaction within the pension system.

Recently, the American Federation of Teachers sent a letter to the SEC urging strengthened scrutiny of SpaceX's listing, warning that workers' lifetime savings could be controlled by a company that resembles a Musk family business more than a transparent public company.

Simultaneously, three major U.S. public pension funds managing over $1 trillion in assets (CalPERS, New York State, and New York City pension systems) also co-signed a letter to Musk, strongly opposing SpaceX's extreme governance structure. This includes super-voting rights, veto power over his own removal as CEO, and immunity from lawsuits.

They pointed out that Musk simultaneously leads SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, Neuralink, and other companies, posing significant risks due to divided attention. The letter demanded that SpaceX transition to a one-share-one-vote structure within seven years, establish a board with a majority of external shareholders, separate the CEO and Chairman roles, and remove Musk's self-veto rights.

This rule change, tailored by Wall Street for super IPOs, ultimately tightly binds the retirement savings of tens of millions of Americans to Musk's grand space dream. After early investors enjoy hundred-fold returns, the remaining 'bag-holding' cost is shifted onto passive investors incapable of making a choice.

The largest 'Granny Drain' game in history, under the guise of indexing, is officially beginning.

Justin Sun’s Interview with Hurun Report: A New Order and Certainty for Value Flow in the Era of Transformation

In an interview with *Hurun Report*, Justin Sun, founder of TRON, discussed the evolution of the Web3 industry as it moves from initial exploration to large-scale adoption. He emphasized that the core value of blockchain lies in building an open and inclusive internet of value, enabling anyone globally to transfer and use funds efficiently and at low cost, regardless of location or access to banking. Sun highlighted that projects with lasting impact are those built on genuine demand and real-world usage. He pointed to the stablecoin payment ecosystem as the most mature and scalable application currently, noting that TRON has rapidly become one of the world's largest stablecoin networks. The circulation of USDT on TRON has surpassed $86.3 billion, driven by actual use cases such as cross-border transfers and daily payments, demonstrating strong network effects. Regarding strategy, Sun outlined a methodology combining data-driven iteration, rapid execution, and user-centric focus. He cited the decision to partner with Tether to launch TRC-20 USDT as a key strategic move, based on an assessment of market trends and long-term potential, which has become a significant growth engine for the TRON ecosystem. On globalization, Sun stressed the importance of local compliance and cultural adaptation, noting that success in different markets depends on deep understanding and local partnerships. He also addressed the convergence of AI and blockchain, describing it as a transformative direction where blockchain provides decentralized infrastructure for AI, while AI enhances the intelligence and user experience of blockchain systems. For industry participants and young entrepreneurs, Sun advised continuous learning and adaptability in a fast-changing environment, focusing on building irreplaceable core strengths rather than spreading resources too thinly. Through infrastructure development, global strategy, and technological foresight, TRON aims to advance the practical implementation and evolution of the value internet.

marsbit22m ago

Justin Sun’s Interview with Hurun Report: A New Order and Certainty for Value Flow in the Era of Transformation

marsbit22m ago

Samsung Leverages Technology Cycles, SK Hynix Relies on HBM, What Enabled Micron to Win a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap?

Micron Technology, the Idaho-based memory chip maker, recently saw its market cap surpass $1 trillion, securing its position as one of the top three DRAM manufacturers alongside Samsung and SK Hynix. Its survival and growth story is marked by a unique combination of political maneuvering and hard-won manufacturing efficiency, but also strategic missteps that now challenge its future. Founded in 1978 in Boise without significant government or capital backing, Micron repeatedly turned to Washington for survival during critical junctures. In the 1980s, it filed anti-dumping complaints against Japanese firms, leading to the U.S.-Japan Semiconductor Agreement. Ironically, this created an opening for Samsung, which Micron had earlier licensed its 64K DRAM technology to. In 2002, Micron avoided heavy fines in a price-fixing investigation by acting as a whistleblower against its competitors, cementing its reputation as a "political opportunist." A major strategic error occurred in 2013 with its $2.5 billion acquisition of bankrupt Japanese firm Elpida. This deal burdened Micron with integrating incompatible manufacturing processes just as the industry was pivoting toward HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), a critical technology for AI. SK Hynix had launched its first HBM chip that same year. By the time AI demand exploded with ChatGPT in 2022, SK Hynix commanded about 85% of the HBM3 market, while Micron, playing catch-up, held only around 3%. In 2017, Micron employed similar tactics against a new competitor, Chinese startup Fujian Jinhua, by alleging intellectual property theft, which led to U.S. sanctions effectively crippling the firm. However, this strategy backfired in 2023 when China banned Micron's products from its critical infrastructure, causing its revenue share from China to plummet from 14% in FY2023 to just 7.1% by FY2025. Today, Micron faces a triple squeeze: it lags in the high-margin HBM race, faces pricing pressure in low-end DRAM from Chinese manufacturers like CXMT, and has lost crucial access to the booming Chinese AI server market. Despite its political strategies, Micron's core strength is its exceptional manufacturing cost control, achieved through decades of engineering. Its DRAM chips have a smaller cell area than its rivals, yielding more chips per wafer. This efficiency has been vital for weathering industry downturns. However, this advantage cannot compensate for the decade lost in HBM development. Micron is now racing to ramp up production of its HBM3E, certified by NVIDIA, and develop HBM4. Its future hinges on whether it can close this technological "time debt" through relentless R&D and execution, in a marathon where its competitors, having started earlier, are not slowing down.

marsbit41m ago

Samsung Leverages Technology Cycles, SK Hynix Relies on HBM, What Enabled Micron to Win a Trillion-Dollar Market Cap?

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Deconstructing Mysterious Researcher Serenity's Chokepoint Algorithm and the Global Revaluation of Equity Assets

Unmasking Serenity's "Chokepoint Theory": A Framework for AI-Era Investment This article deconstructs the investment methodology of the pseudonymous online researcher Serenity (formerly AleaBito on Reddit), who claims extraordinary returns by identifying critical bottlenecks in AI and robotics supply chains. Rejecting Wall Street's typical top-down analysis, Serenity employs a bottom-up, reverse-engineering approach. Starting with an end product like an Nvidia GPU cluster, he meticulously maps the global supply chain down to its most essential, irreplaceable physical components—the "choke points." These are low-profile, often monopolized sub-sectors where a disruption could paralyze entire downstream industries, analogous to a strategic strait controlling global oil flow. His primary focus is the physical evolution of AI data centers, specifically the shift from copper interconnects to silicon photonics and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). He identifies five critical, monopolized technical barriers within CPO: high-precision fiber alignment components (e.g., FOCI), external light sources and high-power lasers (e.g., SIVE), molecular beam epitaxy equipment (ALRIB/Riber), ultra-high-purity red phosphorus raw materials, and Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) wafers (Soitec). Serenity extends this framework to humanoid robotics, arguing that while the AI "brain" resides in the US, the physical "body" hardware (actuators, gears, motors) is dominated by Asian manufacturers. He highlights a looming "demand tsunami" for specific rare earth elements essential for robot motors, presenting a severe future supply chain and geopolitical challenge. The article cites several of his investment targets (RPI, SIVE, Soitec, VLN, NBIS) where identifying such choke points, coupled with correcting market mispricings (e.g., ticker code confusion for VLN), allegedly led to significant re-ratings. Ultimately, the article posits that Serenity's core value is not in providing stock picks, but in demonstrating a paradigm: using deep technical analysis to find the silent, indispensable "physical switches" within complex systems, thereby exploiting institutional research blind spots. However, it warns of major risks, including illiquidity in micro-cap stocks, potential "pump-and-dump" accusations, and the foundational gamble that his identified technological paths (like CPO) are the correct and inevitable ones.

marsbit42m ago

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Cross-strait Regulators Jointly Block Hong Kong Stock Account Openings: Where Can Your Money Go Now?

**Summary:** On May 22, 2026, financial regulators in mainland China and Hong Kong launched a synchronized crackdown targeting informal channels used by mainland investors to trade in Hong Kong and US stocks via Hong Kong-based securities firms. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a stringent circular to licensed brokers, mandating stricter onboarding procedures for mainland clients. New requirements include a mandatory written declaration stating that all investment funds originate from *outside* mainland China and are from legal sources. The SFC also demanded the closure of accounts opened with suspicious documents and dormant accounts. Simultaneously, China's securities regulator, along with seven other ministries, initiated a two-year rectification plan, penalizing firms like Futu and Tiger Brokers for illegal cross-border operations. This effectively ends the previously common grey-area practice for mainlanders. Immediate impacts are evident. Social media reports show mainland investors traveling to Hong Kong for in-person account openings are now frequently denied after signing the new declaration, even at firms like uSMART that still accept applications. The declaration acts as both a compliance shield for brokers and a filter for clients. While major internet brokers have halted new mainland accounts, limited options remain. A few Hong Kong-licensed firms like uSMART, Fosun Wealth, and Cheerful still offer avenues, but approval is not guaranteed and hinges on proving offshore fund sources. Crucially, funding accounts must now be in the investor's own name at qualified Hong Kong or international banks, blocking previous informal methods like third-party transfers. For compliant access, official channels like Stock Connect, QDII, and the Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect remain open. Individuals with verifiable overseas residency or status have better prospects. The crackdown signals the definitive end of the loosely regulated expansion period, forcing mainland investors toward stricter, fully compliant pathways for overseas asset allocation.

marsbit48m ago

Cross-strait Regulators Jointly Block Hong Kong Stock Account Openings: Where Can Your Money Go Now?

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Iran and the Fed -- Three Scenarios That Will Impact Global Markets Next

"Three Scenarios for Iran and the Fed Shaping Global Markets" Iranian geopolitics and the Fed's monetary policy path are two dominant themes for markets. Deutsche Bank Research outlines three scenarios linking Iran ceasefire outcomes to Fed policy, with oil prices as the key transmission channel. **Scenario 1: Peace Deal.** A breakthrough leading to the Strait of Hormuz reopening would ease near-term Fed tightening pressure. Recent inflation would be viewed as a temporary energy shock. However, medium-term risks remain; rate hikes could resurface in 2027 if inflation persists. **Scenario 2: Stalemate.** A breakdown in talks and a prolonged Strait closure, but no major escalation, is deemed the scenario with the *highest* Fed hike risk. Sustained high oil prices would feed into core inflation and threaten inflation expectations, while not severely damaging demand enough to give the Fed a reason to pause. This environment could necessitate multiple Fed rate hikes in 2026. **Scenario 3: Conflict Escalation.** Renewed conflict and sharply higher oil prices create a two-way risk for Fed policy. On one hand, it would risk severe inflation expectations de-anchoring, forcing a hawkish response. On the other, extreme oil prices could severely damage demand and the labor market, potentially shifting the Fed's focus toward easing. The ultimate policy decision would depend on which risk materializes first. Overall, Deutsche Bank's framework emphasizes that the path for oil prices, dictated by Iran, will define the nature of inflation pressures and ultimately determine the Fed's policy space. Key signals to watch include ceasefire progress, whether Brent crude stabilizes below $100, and any shift in Fed officials' rhetoric from discussing cuts to potential hikes.

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Iran and the Fed -- Three Scenarios That Will Impact Global Markets Next

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Its operational model is built around several key features: Human-like Computer Interaction: The framework offers advanced AI planning, striving to make interactions with computers more intuitive. By mimicking human behaviour in tasks execution, it promises to elevate user experiences. Narrative Memory: Employed to leverage high-level experiences, Agent S utilises narrative memory to keep track of task histories, thereby enhancing its decision-making processes. Episodic Memory: This feature provides users with step-by-step guidance, allowing the framework to offer contextual support as tasks unfold. Support for OpenACI: With the ability to run locally, Agent S allows users to maintain control over their interactions and workflows, aligning with the decentralised ethos of Web3. Easy Integration with External APIs: Its versatility and compatibility with various AI platforms ensure that Agent S can fit seamlessly into existing technological ecosystems, making it an appealing choice for developers and organisations. These functionalities collectively contribute to Agent S's unique position within the crypto space, as it automates complex, multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. As the project evolves, its potential applications in Web3 could redefine how digital interactions unfold. Timeline of Agent S The development and milestones of Agent S can be encapsulated in a timeline that highlights its significant events: September 27, 2024: The concept of Agent S was launched in a comprehensive research paper titled “An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human,” showcasing the groundwork for the project. October 10, 2024: The research paper was made publicly available on arXiv, offering an in-depth exploration of the framework and its performance evaluation based on the OSWorld benchmark. October 12, 2024: A video presentation was released, providing a visual insight into the capabilities and features of Agent S, further engaging potential users and investors. These markers in the timeline not only illustrate the progress of Agent S but also indicate its commitment to transparency and community engagement. Key Points About Agent S As the Agent S framework continues to evolve, several key attributes stand out, underscoring its innovative nature and potential: Innovative Framework: Designed to provide an intuitive use of computers akin to human interaction, Agent S brings a novel approach to task automation. Autonomous Interaction: The ability to interact autonomously with computers through GUI signifies a leap towards more intelligent and efficient computing solutions. Complex Task Automation: With its robust methodology, it can automate complex, multi-step tasks, making processes faster and less error-prone. Continuous Improvement: The learning mechanisms enable Agent S to improve from past experiences, continually enhancing its performance and efficacy. Versatility: Its adaptability across different operating environments like OSWorld and WindowsAgentArena ensures that it can serve a broad range of applications. As Agent S positions itself in the Web3 and crypto landscape, its potential to enhance interaction capabilities and automate processes signifies a significant advancement in AI technologies. Through its innovative framework, Agent S exemplifies the future of digital interactions, promising a more seamless and efficient experience for users across various industries. Conclusion Agent S represents a bold leap forward in the marriage of AI and Web3, with the capacity to redefine how we interact with technology. While still in its early stages, the possibilities for its application are vast and compelling. Through its comprehensive framework addressing critical challenges, Agent S aims to bring autonomous interactions to the forefront of the digital experience. As we move deeper into the realms of cryptocurrency and decentralisation, projects like Agent S will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future of technology and human-computer collaboration.

696 Total ViewsPublished 2025.01.14Updated 2025.01.14

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