Decoding Monero’s 43% slide – 2 zones to watch for XMR reversal

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-27Last updated on 2026-01-27

Abstract

Monero (XMR) experienced a significant 43.8% decline after reaching a new all-time high of $799.89 in mid-January. It has since retraced to key support levels around $520 and the $400–$440 zone. Technical indicators, including the CMF below -0.05 and RSI under 50, suggest further downside potential. A drop below $411.5 could confirm a bearish trend. However, a recent bounce from the $450–$480 range may target resistance zones at $500–$510 and $560–$580. Traders are advised to consider selling into any bounce unless Bitcoin reclaims key resistance and shifts market sentiment. The overall outlook remains cautious due to selling pressure and the structure of the recent rally.

Monero [XMR] saw a heavy increase in trading volume in mid-January, when the altcoin reached a new all-time high at $799.89. Since then, XMR has retraced by 43.8%.

A recent AMBCrypto report highlighted that Monero was likely to pull back toward $520 and the $400-$440 region. This has come to pass, but now the privacy token was resting atop a key support.

Is longer-term XMR bias bullish or bearish now?

Monero has retraced a good chunk of the rally from August that took the privacy token to new all-time highs. The swing points chosen on the chart above were based on the impulse move upward on the weekly timeframe.

Zooming in on the daily timeframe, we can see that the swing structure remained unbroken. The retracement did see a bearish internal shift.

The CMF was also below -0.05, and the RSI has fallen below the neutral 50. XMR was trading below its 20 and 50-day moving averages. Together, the signs showed that further losses were possible.

Exploring the bearish scenario

With Bitcoin [BTC] facing selling pressure and Monero testing a key Fibonacci retracement level as support, things looked difficult for XMR bulls. The recent rally to ATHs had a classic, high-volume blow-off top.

A drop below the $411.5 level would confirm an indication trend on the 1-day timeframe. As things stand, the bullish argument for new all-time highs does not seem to hold water.

Traders’ call to action- Sell the bounce

After collecting the liquidity huddled up around $450-$480, XMR has bounced higher on the 26th of January. This bounce has the potential to target the magnetic zones to the north.

These liquidity pools were at $500-$510 and $560-$580. In the coming days, a price bounce to these levels is possible. Traders should watch out for a drop below $411.5 to confirm longer-term bearishness, or a bounce to magnetic zones for a reversal.

Final Thoughts

  • The speed of the XMR rally and its cool-off suggested the run might be over, especially with the selling pressure on Bitcoin.
  • A price bounce toward $560 would be for selling, unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $94.5k resistance and turn altcoin sentiment bullish.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

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Related Questions

QWhat was the percentage decline in Monero's (XMR) price after reaching its all-time high in mid-January?

AMonero (XMR) retraced by 43.8% after reaching its all-time high.

QAccording to the article, what are the two key support zones that were highlighted for a potential XMR reversal?

AThe two key support zones highlighted were the $520 level and the $400-$440 region.

QWhat technical indicator levels are mentioned as being unfavorable for XMR, suggesting further losses were possible?

AThe Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) was below -0.05, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had fallen below the neutral 50. XMR was also trading below its 20 and 50-day moving averages.

QWhat price level would confirm a longer-term bearish trend for XMR on the 1-day timeframe?

AA drop below the $411.5 level would confirm a longer-term bearish trend on the 1-day timeframe.

QWhat does the article suggest traders should do if XMR's price bounces toward the $560-$580 zone?

AThe article suggests that traders should sell the bounce at the $560-$580 zone, unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $94.5k resistance and turns altcoin sentiment bullish.

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How to Buy XMR

Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing Monero (XMR) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy Monero (XMR) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your Monero (XMR)After purchasing your Monero (XMR), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade Monero (XMR)Easily trade Monero (XMR) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

5.3k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2026.06.02

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