Bitcoin continues to trade around $80,000 as buyers defend key technical levels and leverage returns to the market. The cryptocurrency recently changed hands around $79,759 following a strong rally that pushed it towards significant resistance.
Brandt Bets on Bitcoin Breakout
Brandt recently disclosed several active trades, including a long position in Bitcoin. He also holds long positions in wheat, soybeans, corn, soybean meal, sugar, and the Mexican peso. Additionally, he maintains short positions in lean hogs.
The trader did not reveal the entry price for Bitcoin, the position size, leverage, or exit target. Consequently, his trade offers limited guidance for investors seeking specific price points.
However, Brandt's latest position reflects a significant shift in his technical outlook. Previously, he expected another drop in Bitcoin with approximately 60% probability. This view changed after Bitcoin completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
$81,255 Becomes a Key Test
The four-hour Bitcoin chart currently exhibits a firmly ascending bullish structure. The cryptocurrency is trading above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-period exponential moving averages.
The 20 EMA is currently near $79,084 and provides the nearest significant support. Below this level, Bitcoin could test $77,283, representing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
Furthermore, the 50 EMA near $76,515 represents another important defense for buyers. Deeper support is observed around $74,165, followed by the 100 EMA near $72,884.
On the other hand, Bitcoin will face immediate resistance in the $80,000 to $80,500 range. A decisive four-hour close above $81,255 could confirm renewed upward momentum.
Significantly, such a breakout could expose Bitcoin to targets above $83,000. However, repeated failures near resistance could encourage short-term profit-taking.
The Bollinger Band %B value at 0.68 also supports a measured bullish view. Bitcoin has entered the upper half of the volatility band without reaching an extreme.
Rising Open Interest Raises the Stakes
The Bitcoin derivatives market shows a significant change compared to earlier this year. Previously, open interest declined from over $60 billion to the $30-35 billion range.
This decline reflected mass position unwinding and reduced leverage during Bitcoin's early weakness. However, open interest has recently recovered to $56.48 billion.
Moreover, Bitcoin traded around $80,258 alongside the rise in open interest. This combination suggests a recovery of leveraged positions amid the price rebound.
Thus, rising open interest could support further gains if buyers maintain control. However, expanding leverage also increases liquidation risks during sharp reversals.
Sustained movement above $60 billion in open interest could reinforce the recovery narrative. Conversely, a drop below $50 billion could signal renewed caution.
Spot Flows Remain a Potential Headwind
Bitcoin's spot flows appear less convincing than its price structure. Outflows have often dominated the broader period, especially during several major market dips.
Inflows were observed in February, April, June, and August, but these movements were not consistent. Recently, flows have fluctuated around the zero line.
On August 28, Bitcoin recorded a modest net inflow of about $17.73 million. This figure indicates some easing of selling pressure.
However, the data does not yet provide compelling evidence of aggressive accumulation. Therefore, Bitcoin needs sustained spot market demand alongside a technical breakout.
Bitcoin Technical Price Forecast
Key levels remain clearly defined heading into September:
Upside Levels: $80,500 and $81,255 represent the nearest obstacles. A decisive breakout above $81,255 could open the path to $83,000 and possibly $85,000.
Downside Levels: $79,084, the 20 EMA, provides immediate support, followed by $77,283 and $76,515. A deeper correction could reveal $74,165 and $72,884.
Resistance Ceiling: $81,255 is a critical level for the recovery to gain strength for medium-term bullish momentum. Bitcoin's EMA structure continues to support the broader uptrend.
The technical picture indicates that $BTC is consolidating below strong resistance after a strong rally. A sustained breakout could trigger fresh momentum and increased volatility.
Related: Bitcoin's Center of Gravity Shifts East: Why India May Lag Behind
Will Bitcoin's Price Rise?
The September Bitcoin forecast hinges on whether buyers can defend $79,084 while simultaneously gathering enough momentum to challenge the $81,255 resistance. Rising open interest suggests trader positioning is recovering, though it also increases liquidation risk.
If buying pressure intensifies and spot flows remain positive, $BTC could break above $81,255 and reach $83,000 or higher. However, a failure to hold $79,084 could lead to pullbacks towards $77,283 and $76,515.
For now, Bitcoin remains at an inflection point. The bullish structure favors buyers, but confirmation above $81,255 remains key for the next major leg up.
Related: Can Trump's Venezuela Oil Deal Lower Oil Prices and Help Bitcoin Reach $100k Again?
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